ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[USTropics]

Here is the evolution from Gonzalo's peak last night (around midnight) to 30 minutes ago. This will give a really good illustration of what I've been describing throughout the day:

[supercane4867]

Disorganized, but definitely enough convection activity to hang on as a TS.

[RT23]

I am not discounting a re evolution of Gonzalo as yet. Moisture envelope has not totally diminished.

[Nimbus]

Still quite far south.
Shear from the southwest over the Caribbean will probably be the determining factor, depending on the subtropical ridging it might survive.

[Hammy]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

[FireRat]

Here is the evolution from Gonzalo's peak last night (around midnight) to 30 minutes ago. This will give a really good illustration of what I've been describing throughout the day:
https://i.ibb.co/f8zMmSY/Webp-net-gifmaker-6.gif

Very cool loop, looks like someone whacked Gonzo on the head with a bat!

Will he survive? hmm, not sure he'll be a hurricane anymore, such a hideous appearance! You never know though, we shouldn't sleep on this one, but if 57 brings bones here soon though...

[NDG]

Hot off the press, 12z Euro keeps it intact through the Windward Islands, lol.

[CFLHurricane]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

Or it’s still July.

[NDG]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

The same thing happened to TS Don in July 2017 and looked how that season turned out.
Is just July and NOT mid mid to late August.

[TheStormExpert]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

If things struggle through the Tropical Atlantic that means development is delayed and landfall risks greatly increase for the Caribbean, Central America, Mexico, and the U.S.

[USTropics]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

It's almost a carbon copy of Don in 2017 tbh, same time frame too:


 https://twitter.com/i/status/887296003652694016

[CyclonicFury]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

The same thing happened to TS Don in July 2017 and looked how that season turned out.
Is just July and NOT mid mid to late August.

This is important to remember, hurricanes east of the Antilles in the MDR during July are very rare. The only ones I can think of Bertha 1996/2008, Emily 2005, and Beryl 2018.

[AveryTheComrade]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

2017 had 3 struggling MDR storms in the early season and look how that turned off, it's much too early to write off the MDR this year

[AxaltaRacing24]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

With all due respect, it is still only July 23rd.

We technically shouldn't even be on our 7th storm let alone having an MDR storm right now.

[MarioProtVI]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

I also heard mid-level dry air could also be an issue later down the road.

[Ubuntwo]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

This is a July MDR storm that formed despite little prior model support. Doesn't seem to indicate anything of the sort.

[BYG Jacob]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

Seriously?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We've had an insanely active early season. We're making assumptions as if it were August while forgetting that dry air in the MDR is perfectly normal this time of year. 2017 didn't have any significant storms in the MDR by this point either.

[b0tzy29]

Gonzalo may hang on. Still come convection around the center and the latest Euro keeps it intact.

[plasticup]

Here is the evolution from Gonzalo's peak last night (around midnight) to 30 minutes ago. This will give a really good illustration of what I've been describing throughout the day:
https://i.ibb.co/f8zMmSY/Webp-net-gifmaker-6.gif

Can't help but look at that organizing mess in the gulf....