ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USVIKimmie]

By getting the TD it’s #, won’t that trigger different forecasting protocols? Justify sending recon flights, at the least...?

[sma10]

Are there any other storms that became major hurricanes that were moving at the lightning speed that this is forecast to move?
I would think that would be the thing it has going against it...

Andrew was moving very fast striking FL - 18-20mph

[brohavwx]

That initial latitude of 14.6N looks too far north, over a degree too far. The NHC trick mirrors consensus, but is a degree or more north of consensus.

I have to agree. I would even stick my neck out and say its still between 12-13N. The ASCAT pass really doesn't confirm much in my opinion, other than the "fight" between two possible CoC ... again. Granted the heavy convection is more to the north but stranger things have happened before and this season seems to get wackier as we go. The models are not doing good at all. Maybe they should think about getting the recons out there early as there is definitely some news rules being set down for cyclogenesis in 2020.

[hohnywx]

By getting the TD it’s #, won’t that trigger different forecasting protocols? Justify sending recon flights, at the least...?

Recon has already been scheduled for tomorrow.

[Steve]

Not even relevant enough to mention, lol.

It tells me they don't really buy it

Of course they don't buy it, but that's not surprising. Many of us here weren't buying it. We've seen that song play out so many times, including this year. When it comes to cyclone-genesis, the models are never a substitute for your own eyes.

GFS and EC anyway.

[Evil Jeremy]

By getting the TD it’s #, won’t that trigger different forecasting protocols? Justify sending recon flights, at the least...?

Recon flights were previously scheduled, and would have flown if the NHC thought that an undesignated system was organized enough to warrant sending recon in to determine if there was a closed low level circulation.

[eastcoastFL]

By getting the TD it’s #, won’t that trigger different forecasting protocols? Justify sending recon flights, at the least...?

Recon was already scheduled for tomorrow

[aspen]

That initial latitude of 14.6N looks too far north, over a degree too far. The NHC trick mirrors consensus, but is a degree or more north of consensus.

I have to agree. I would even stick my neck out and say its still between 12-13N. The ASCAT pass really doesn't confirm much in my opinion, other than the "fight" between two possible CoC ... again. Granted the heavy convection is more to the north but stranger things have happened before and this season seems to get wackier as we go. The models are not doing good at all. Maybe they should think about getting the recons out there early as there is definitely some news rules being set down for cyclogenesis in 2020.

As long as convection is persistently firing up there, the CoC will probably reform closer to where the NHC has placed it now, assuming it’s actually at 12-13N.

[tiger_deF]

If the center truly does end up forming north under the blob of convection, it could have serious consequences for the future track and intensity

[Kingarabian]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

Haha. Nancy Smar quickly ends the bearish 98L talks just like that. I like how you get the data from the NHC FTP servers so quickly. I had a good time reading the bearish conversations TBH. Good points made, both ways. Good stuff!

[ConvergenceZone]

Not that it matters, but ICON definitely coming in weaker on this run.. Maybe it will get stronger in the Gulf

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s my forecast and those between Palm Beach to the Key West May need to prepare for a major hurricane

Here is the forecast intensity

Now. TD. 35mph
12hrs. TS. 40mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS 60mph
72hrs. C1. 80mph
96hrs. C2. 100mph
108hrs C2. 110mph over Miami
120hrs C1 85mph Over Lakeland
144hrs. C1. 80mph near Cedar Key

[Cat5James]

Here’s my forecast and those between Palm Beach to the Key West May need to prepare for a major hurricane

Here is the forecast intensity

Now. TD. 35mph
12hrs. TS. 40mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS 60mph
72hrs. C1. 80mph
96hrs. C2. 100mph
108hrs C2. 110mph over Miami
120hrs C1 85mph Over Lakeland
144hrs. C1. 80mph near Cedar Key

Watching closely from Broward County... will not be sleeping much this week.

[BobHarlem]

Hmm Keys may need to start evacuating folks on Friday if there's even a chance this gets up to major.

[GeneratorPower]

Hmm Keys may need to start evacuating folks on Friday if there's even a chance this gets up to major.

Definitely. This system has huge upside risk.

[eastcoastFL]

Here’s my forecast and those between Palm Beach to the Key West May need to prepare for a major hurricane

Here is the forecast intensity

Now. TD. 35mph
12hrs. TS. 40mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS 60mph
72hrs. C1. 80mph
96hrs. C2. 100mph
108hrs C2. 110mph over Miami
120hrs C1 85mph Over Lakeland
144hrs. C1. 80mph near Cedar Key

Feeling safeish for now up here in southern Martin county.

[brohavwx]

That initial latitude of 14.6N looks too far north, over a degree too far. The NHC trick mirrors consensus, but is a degree or more north of consensus.

I have to agree. I would even stick my neck out and say its still between 12-13N. The ASCAT pass really doesn't confirm much in my opinion, other than the "fight" between two possible CoC ... again. Granted the heavy convection is more to the north but stranger things have happened before and this season seems to get wackier as we go. The models are not doing good at all. Maybe they should think about getting the recons out there early as there is definitely some news rules being set down for cyclogenesis in 2020.

As long as convection is persistently firing up there, the CoC will probably reform closer to where the NHC has placed it now, assuming it’s actually at 12-13N.

Oh, I know the rule of thumb on the persistent convection but the burst to the NW has warmed to between -50C and -40C now, only the farther north burst maintains -60C to just -70C or so. We'll see.

[SouthFLTropics]

Here’s my forecast and those between Palm Beach to the Key West May need to prepare for a major hurricane

Here is the forecast intensity

Now. TD. 35mph
12hrs. TS. 40mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS 60mph
72hrs. C1. 80mph
96hrs. C2. 100mph
108hrs C2. 110mph over Miami
120hrs C1 85mph Over Lakeland
144hrs. C1. 80mph near Cedar Key

Feeling safeish for now up here in southern Martin county.

Ooof, that's it...Now you went and done it. Now you've cursed us on the Treasure Coast.

In all seriousness, I'll feel safe once this thing is north of us. Until then, all bets are off.

[DestinHurricane]

Hmm Keys may need to start evacuating folks on Friday if there's even a chance this gets up to major.

Yeah right now everyone needs to get aware of the zone they live in if they don't already know it.

[eastcoastFL]

Here’s my forecast and those between Palm Beach to the Key West May need to prepare for a major hurricane

Here is the forecast intensity

Now. TD. 35mph
12hrs. TS. 40mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS 60mph
72hrs. C1. 80mph
96hrs. C2. 100mph
108hrs C2. 110mph over Miami
120hrs C1 85mph Over Lakeland
144hrs. C1. 80mph near Cedar Key

Feeling safeish for now up here in southern Martin county.

Ooof, that's it...Now you went and done it. Now you've cursed us on the Treasure Coast.

In all seriousness, I'll feel safe once this thing is north of us. Until then, all bets are off.

North of us? I like it better being south of us. I don’t want to see any shifts north. I feel like this one should stay to our south. I think it may end up missing Miami through the keys even...