ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

A ship SE of the storm's center just reported 48kt sustained winds.

You are correct, and an area when the recon hasn't sampled yet.

SHIP S 1200 26.90 -92.20 43 98 170 48.0 - 13.1 4.0 - - 29.68

[Extratropical94]

999.5 from 1001.8 mb in 1.5 hrs

I believe the pressure on the first pass was 1000.5, but the rate of deepening is still enough to get Hanna to sub-990 until tomorrow.

[Jr0d]

Good reminder of the time of year. I’ve been very skeptical from the start of those calling for RI to Cat 2, 3, 4. It appears slightly stronger this morning, yet slightly more disorganized than last night. A minimal hurricane will be difficult at this rate, unless it can get it’s act together this afternoon.

Looked likely at 3am....now with the lopsidedness, not so much. Still think its probable Hanna can reach hurrixane strength.

[aspen]

If Hanna can get some of its convection wrapped into its northern quadrant, I can see a minimal hurricane before landfall. So far it’s the most impressive storm of the Atlantic this year just based on convection (although potential future Isaias will probably blow it out of the water if the Euro runs are right).

[texsn95]

Is she on a more NW track now?

[EquusStorm]

Probably the 65kt threshold right at landfall is possible if external factors don't cause issues, certainly don't want a significant hurricane for evacuation and hospital power reasons during the pandemic

[Highteeld]

6z euro has around a 994 mb landfall, but the model is about 4 to 5 mb too high for central pressure for the current hour.

[catskillfire51]

6z euro has around a 994 mb landfall, but the model is about 4 to 5 mb too high for central pressure for the current hour.

The 6z Euro I am looking at initiated the 6z at 1008mb.

[Texashawk]

Is she on a more NW track now?

Looking at long range radar, it seems that way, maybe moving 310 erratically right now?

[TheStormExpert]

Hanna needs to get some convection going on it’s NW side in order to RI or intensify into a hurricane. Hanna kind of reminds me of Hurricane Alex in 2010 where the pressure was dropping yet the winds weren’t increasing due to its large and broad size. Never was able to maintain major status before heading into NE Mexico south of the Texas border.

This is why places like Brownsville will probably get more rain than places like Victoria and points north of there. Odd. Very little convection north of the center. I guess the dry air is doing that.

It looked a little better and more symmetric last night but I guess it got ahold of some continental dry air.

[xironman]

Hanna needs to get some convection going on it’s NW side in order to RI or intensify into a hurricane. Hanna kind of reminds me of Hurricane Alex in 2010 where the pressure was dropping yet the winds weren’t increasing due to its large and broad size. Never was able to maintain major status before heading into NE Mexico south of the Texas border.

This is why places like Brownsville will probably get more rain than places like Victoria and points north of there. Odd. Very little convection north of the center. I guess the dry air is doing that.

Shear is doing the work more than dry air.

[catskillfire51]

[imgur][/imgur]

[NDG]

[gatorcane]

There is mid-level shear that is clearly impacting Hanna. Also we should see some dry air start getting wrapped in from the SW from mainland Mexico though dry air appears to be less of an issue. Both of these reasons are likely why the models consensus is not calling for a hurricane at landfall.

[texsn95]

Is she on a more NW track now?

Looking at long range radar, it seems that way, maybe moving 310 erratically right now?

Looks that way from the picture cats posted. What are the driving forces that are steering her?

[cainjamin]

Hmm... Interesting warm spot popping up near where recon last reported the centre. Could be beginning to see the starting of an inner core forming. The next pass through will be one to watch.

[alan1961]

Centre becoming a little exposed

[Kazmit]

It's lopsided but looks really impressive south of the center.

[cheezyWXguy]

Centre becoming a little exposed

https://img.techpowerup.org/200724/hanna.jpg

Interesting how two posts back to back can have completely different interpretations of the same satellite image. I think the center is actually that warm spot though. The radar loop above seems to match more clearly with that interpretation to me

[wxman57]

Can someone get word to Luis (Cycloneye) that my profile appears to have been corrupted? I get a "General Error" page whenever I try to access S2K forum threads. Two computers, 3 different browsers. Thanks. I was able to get to this thread only after logging out, clicking "reply" to the discussion here, THEN logging in. Not even sure if it'll work when I click "Submit".