ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CM2]

They turned east.
I hope they have enough gas.
Taking forever to map the wind field.

They only took off from the St. Croix so they started off pretty close.

[SouthFLTropics]

They turned east.
I hope they have enough gas.
Taking forever to map the wind field.

That brings up a good question. Have the Hurricane Hunters ever had to do in flight refueling before? Maybe they need to dispatch a KC-135 out there.

[HURRICANELONNY]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
Looking at the vis loop. I can not pick out a closed low. Just a broad center. Somewhere around 12N 58W. I could be totally wrong. It's making me dizzy watching loop.

[SouthFLTropics]

Still very disorganized and apparently an MLC in the Western blob dropping WSW. This needs another day or so.

I think you're right. I think the "East" and "West" blobs may just be two mid level vorts and the LLC is going to establish itself between the two where the new convection is now firing off. If that's the case, then neither blob wins. Or both blobs win. I guess it depends on how you look at it.

[GCANE]

Turned north.
Looks like they are going back where IR Satellites last had it.
14N 55.3W

[USVIKimmie]

They turned east.
I hope they have enough gas.
Taking forever to map the wind field.

They only took off from the St. Croix so they started off pretty close.

Even closer - Guadeloupe

[HurricaneEnzo]

Still very disorganized and apparently an MLC in the Western blob dropping WSW. This needs another day or so.

I think you're right. I think the "East" and "West" blobs may just be two mid level vorts and the LLC is going to establish itself between the two where the new convection is now firing off. If that's the case, then neither blob wins. Or both blobs win. I guess it depends on how you look at it.

Possible. Would be in line with the NHC track maybe that was their thinking. Or a new circ spawns in one of the blobs who knows lol. Interesting to watch this all play out.

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[GCANE]

Looks like the circulation is above 850mb.
Makes sense now why they are flying at 975mb.
Nothing to see today.

[Blown Away]

I think the LLC is the red circle. The low level circulation is huge. Wow.

[SconnieCane]

Are we going to see an east blob vs. west blob battle, complete with diss tracks and drive-by shootings?

[chaser1]

Turned north.
Looks like they are going back where IR Satellites last had it.
14N 55.3W

https://i.imgur.com/IkhCXvt.png

https://i.imgur.com/kGRqZPF.gif

This wind field appears as surface? Is this truly at 850mb?

[Ubuntwo]

Turned north.
Looks like they are going back where IR Satellites last had it.
14N 55.3W

https://i.imgur.com/IkhCXvt.png

https://i.imgur.com/kGRqZPF.gif

This wind field appears as surface? Is this truly at 850mb?

It's just an analysis of the windfield coverage, with the center at the NHC position and the wind barbs always closed. Not really useful in a system like this.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think you got it there BlownAway. Like I said earlier, up around 14N. Think it may be a hair west of where you have it...Possibly at 57W. If it isn't now, it will be by the time I finish writing this. The circulation is MASSIVE and is cruising in forward speed as well.

[NDG]

Turned north.
Looks like they are going back where IR Satellites last had it.
14N 55.3W

https://i.imgur.com/IkhCXvt.png

https://i.imgur.com/kGRqZPF.gif

This wind field appears as surface? Is this truly at 850mb?

Is surely not at the surface as confirmed by the recon.

[Blown Away]

I think you got it there BlownAway. Like I said earlier, up around 14N. Think it may be a hair west of where you have it...Possibly at 57W. If it isn't now, it will be by the time I finish writing this. The circulation is MASSIVE and is cruising in forward speed as well.

Yeah 2pm advisory, TS winds 230 miles out. WOW

[GCANE]

Turned north.
Looks like they are going back where IR Satellites last had it.
14N 55.3W

https://i.imgur.com/IkhCXvt.png

https://i.imgur.com/kGRqZPF.gif

This wind field appears as surface? Is this truly at 850mb?

Its mostly 700mb and they use algorithms to extrapolate to the surface.
Most the times its close. Guess this time its not.

[SouthFLTropics]

In just over 30 minutes we're going to find out how much weight the NHC is going to throw towards the Euro. Let's see if they adjust the track to the left to account for it's 12z run. My guess, for continuity, they will just extend out the current track to account for the past six hours. I don't expect much left to right shifting.

[tropicwatch]

HH getting a hint of a westerly wind component at FL. I mean just a hint SSW 197degrees.

[GCANE]

Big outbreak of overshooting tops north of the west blob.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The center, which is more or less where the NHC has it, looks good to me for a circulation.