ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JPmia]

correct me if I'm wrong, but Fowey Rocks is used quite often down here when we have storms around. Not sure why folks are saying that station's readings are not worthy of consideration.

[cheezyWXguy]

So I'm seeing they just changed on NHC she's now named Sally... did she seriously develop over the glades? Or did she stay south FLa bay, I've been outta loop as driving today

Aric you're spot on with the LLC. Lowest pressure at Naples now at 29.69 in.

Here are some surface obs as well .. for those that have disregarded recon ... and as you mentioned marco island also has the lowest pressure.. 1003mb

https://i.ibb.co/HBvpjdx/Capture.png

Lol now I really am confused. That NNW surface on would corroborate your onshore center, but recon found it offshore

[cycloneye]

Three Storms have made landfall on 2020 in Louisiana and Sally will be the 4th. Is this a record for the state?

1#. Cristóbal.
2#. Marco.
3#. Laura.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric you're spot on with the LLC. Lowest pressure at Naples now at 29.69 in.

Here are some surface obs as well .. for those that have disregarded recon ... and as you mentioned marco island also has the lowest pressure.. 1003mb

https://i.ibb.co/HBvpjdx/Capture.png

Lol now I really am confused. That NNW surface on would corroborate your onshore center, but recon found it offshore

it is near land.. probably couple little eddys. recon was flying at 925 mb. surface obs are surface obs of course. it was not that big of a difference though.

[NDG]

So I'm seeing they just changed on NHC she's now named Sally... did she seriously develop over the glades? Or did she stay south FLa bay, I've been outta loop as driving today

Aric you're spot on with the LLC. Lowest pressure at Naples now at 29.69 in.

Here are some surface obs as well .. for those that have disregarded recon ... and as you mentioned marco island also has the lowest pressure.. 1003mb

https://i.ibb.co/HBvpjdx/Capture.png

I spoke to soon when I looked at the recon, I agree with you, even Naples airport is showing 1005 mb pressure with ENE winds.

[NDG]

Three Storms have made landfall on 2020 in Louisiana and Sally will be the 4th. Is this a record for the state?

1#. Cristóbal.
2#. Marco.
3#. Laura.

Did Marco make landfall as a TS at the mouth of MS river? I thought it didn't.

[ronjon]

Not much convection on the north side of LLC other than outer bands up in central FL. Northerly shear must still be impacting the storm. I would think convection would start to fill in tonight to the north of the storm.

[DestinHurricane]

The center is way east of GFS forecast

[ClarCari]

Three Storms have made landfall on 2020 in Louisiana and Sally will be the 4th. Is this a record for the state?

1#. Cristóbal.
2#. Marco.
3#. Laura.

Did Marco make landfall as a TS at the mouth of MS river? I thought it didn't.

It did near the mouth as a 40mph TS but most of that was displaced to the NE over water..so barely lol

[Aric Dunn]

it does not get much more clear than that.. tracking over Marco island.. should pop off the coast around or south naples.

[TimSmith]

I think the NHC's intensity forecast is reasonable. Though it is the GOM and there's always the chance of a system going bonkers.

Yeah, in GOM always possible for sudden " whatever is faster than rapid intensification"... Remember Michael was ( on T + 72 hour ) forecasted to be a strong landfalling tropical storm! A lot of interesting hypothesis to be studied as to the how/why/where so that intensification models can be improved, but in meantime just gotta look at bigger picture common sense. For this current storm think we'll be dealing with probably strong cat 2, not some monster, as it appears surrounding environmentally set up not overly favorable possibly shear building as approaches northern gulf coast

[NDG]

Like I said earlier, great job by the 12z Euro.

[USTropics]

Three Storms have made landfall on 2020 in Louisiana and Sally will be the 4th. Is this a record for the state?

1#. Cristóbal.
2#. Marco.
3#. Laura.

Did Marco make landfall as a TS at the mouth of MS river? I thought it didn't.

It did near the mouth as a 40mph TS but most of that was displaced to the NE over water..so barely lol

Correct, it technically made landfall right near the mouth of MS river before becoming decoupled and the remnants moved westward.

At 23:00 UTC on August 24, Marco made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River, with 1-minute sustained winds at 40 mph (65 km/h) and a central pressure of 1,006 mbar (29.7 inHg).

[ClarCari]

it does not get much more clear than that.. tracking over Marco island.. should pop off the coast around or south naples.

https://i.ibb.co/nRF3Zv1/LABELS-19700101-000000-20.gif

I only joined a couple weeks ago but since I did Aric I noticed you’ve called just about everything that spun up that the NHC marked for potential development and have an “eye” for eyes and anything that’s spinning.
MVP of the 2020 season right here

[aspen]

Like I said earlier, great job by the 12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/pOUghSd.gif

“Great job” and “Euro” being in the same sentence has been such an extraordinarily rare occurrence this year. For once, it’s doing a decent job, at least track-wise.

[Aric Dunn]

1002-1003mb marco island. lower than recon.

[3090]

Three Storms have made landfall on 2020 in Louisiana and Sally will be the 4th. Is this a record for the state?

1#. Cristóbal.
2#. Marco.
3#. Laura.

I would have to guess, yes.

[NDG]

Like I said earlier, great job by the 12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/pOUghSd.gif

“Great job” and “Euro” being in the same sentence has been such an extraordinarily rare occurrence this year. For once, it’s doing a decent job, at least track-wise.

Yes, at least on its short term is now doing a fairly decent job with the track of the storm.

[DestinHurricane]

Like I said earlier, great job by the 12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/pOUghSd.gif

“Great job” and “Euro” being in the same sentence has been such an extraordinarily rare occurrence this year. For once, it’s doing a decent job, at least track-wise.

Yes, at least on its short term is now doing a fairly decent job with the track of the storm.

Looks like euro is WAY too weak which may be causing it to be so far west.

[eastcoastFL]

Sallys just crawling up the line eating it like Mrs.Pacman and puffing up along the way