ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

“Great job” and “Euro” being in the same sentence has been such an extraordinarily rare occurrence this year. For once, it’s doing a decent job, at least track-wise.

Yes, at least on its short term is now doing a fairly decent job with the track of the storm.

Looks like euro is WAY too weak which may be causing it to be so far west.

That's nonsense a lot of times, it only works if the system starts getting affected by SW shear, otherwise the HWRF which is usually a right biased model would had been way to the right with its strong Cat 3 of the Euro at landfall.

[tailgater]

Like I said earlier, great job by the 12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/pOUghSd.gif

Wow hadn’t seen that before, I m not really looking at the models yet. Impressive

[johngaltfla]

Not much convection on the north side of LLC other than outer bands up in central FL. Northerly shear must still be impacting the storm. I would think convection would start to fill in tonight to the north of the storm.

Quietest for the N to NE quadrant of any storm. Then again, she's just getting started.

[Sanibel]

Still pretty sheared and inhibiting IMO...

Should give us a close pass...

[Nimbus]

Have to come back later and see where CrazyC83 has Sally crossing the 26 latitude line...

[tropicwatch]

Once Sally gets away from the coast. I think we will see the north and west sides start to fill in with convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Center is right ontop of Marco island.

calm winds now. pressure down to 1002.2 mb. and surrounding obs show the wind switch.

[StormPyrate]

On visible it looks like two spins, one almost bare near Marco and one under the convection to its south east

[NDG]

OCOF125.90/-81.32 @ 7ft.
Name:OCHOPEE RAWS
Provider:RAWS
Valid:12 Sep 4:03 PM EDT
Temp:76 °F24 °C
Dew Point:76 °F24 °C
Relh:100 %
Wind Speed:31 mph27 kts
Wind Dir:SE140°
Gust:44 mph38 kts

[Jr0d]

Not much convection on the north side of LLC other than outer bands up in central FL. Northerly shear must still be impacting the storm. I would think convection would start to fill in tonight to the north of the storm.

Quietest for the N to NE quadrant of any storm. Then again, she's just getting started.

A lot of activity in the S to SE quadrant. Still not seeing much wind in Key West though.

We are continuing to have moderate to heavy rain with flooding becoming an issue. Up the Keys, Islamorada had some significant issues including wastewater management being backed up and even advised residents to stay off the roads.

My street is flooded in front of my house and we are at the highest point in the road. Looking at the radar I think we can expect at least a couple more inches tonight. Flood advisory is up.

[tailgater]

Wow this is one lopsided storm attm thankfully, MLC is stout and I doubt it’s going anywhere soon. I’d expect little strengthening today, last night I was getting a little worried. Not saying it won’t become a hurricane just not the monster I was dreading last night.

[ronjon]

it does not get much more clear than that.. tracking over Marco island.. should pop off the coast around or south naples.

https://i.ibb.co/nRF3Zv1/LABELS-19700101-000000-20.gif

I only joined a couple weeks ago but since I did Aric I noticed you’ve called just about everything that spun up that the NHC marked for potential development and have an “eye” for eyes and anything that’s spinning.
MVP of the 2020 season right here

Please don't make his ego any bigger than it is! All kidding aside, check his number of posts. Aric is pretty darn sharp with his observations.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Three Storms have made landfall on 2020 in Louisiana and Sally will be the 4th. Is this a record for the state?

1#. Cristóbal.
2#. Marco.
3#. Laura.

Not there yet!

[Nimbus]

OCOF125.90/-81.32 @ 7ft.
Name:OCHOPEE RAWS
Provider:RAWS
Valid:12 Sep 4:03 PM EDT
Temp:76 °F24 °C
Dew Point:76 °F24 °C
Relh:100 %
Wind Speed:31 mph27 kts
Wind Dir:SE140°

That was more like .9 not 42 but starting to get the picture.
Gust:44 mph38 kts

[ronjon]

OCOF125.90/-81.32 @ 7ft.
Name:OCHOPEE RAWS
Provider:RAWS
Valid:12 Sep 4:03 PM EDT
Temp:76 °F24 °C
Dew Point:76 °F24 °C
Relh:100 %
Wind Speed:31 mph27 kts
Wind Dir:SE140°
Gust:44 mph38 kts

NDG, where is that station located?

[us89]

Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...SALLY MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 81.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Hurricane watch is up from Grand Isle, LA through the Alabama coast...including the New Orleans metro area

[weeniepatrol]

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W

MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

[ronjon]

On visible it looks like two spins, one almost bare near Marco and one under the convection to its south east

I think thats still the midlevel center to the SE that's trying to catch up to the LLC. Its been fighting N-NW shear all day. Think when that shear relaxes, they'll get aligned.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finds the center just west of Marco island matching up with radar.

About

25.8N 81.9W

[Hurricane_Apu]

The disturbance ahead of Sally is bringing soaking rains to South Louisiana (actually looks quite impressive on radar). The ground will likely be saturated. That would be an especially big problem around Lafayette, where some places got over a foot of rain from Marco and Laura combined... but it seems increasingly likely that Sally will be a non-event this far west.