ATL: ISAIAS - Models
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Fay 2.0 on 12z GFS
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Even as a slightly stronger system, 09L is unable to survive the sheer in the Bahamas. Needs to strengthen a lot more in order to do that.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
12z GFS...TS/TD as it nears SFL, then crawls for a few days over the peninsula = torrential rain...
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Even as a slightly stronger system, 09L is unable to survive the sheer in the Bahamas. Needs to strengthen a lot more in order to do that.
Yes there will be Southwesterly shear but an anti-cyclone is forecasted to stay almost on top of PTC-9 all the way to Florida. It’s the dry air that’s the biggest problem.
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: NINE - Models
gatorcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:12z poofing this right of the SE FL Coast @126hrs
Yet the model shows a very favorable upper-level wind pattern that sets up as it approaches SE Florida. Hot water, slow moving, system. Hmmm...
https://i.postimg.cc/L4vgxfHT/gfs-shear-watl-22.png
Dry air.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
CMC is a bit stronger and shifted west. Looks like it will landfall in SoFlo in the low 990mbs.
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ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
UKMET significantly stronger:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 15.3N 61.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2020 24 15.3N 61.1W 1006 36
0000UTC 30.07.2020 36 16.7N 63.7W 1004 40
1200UTC 30.07.2020 48 18.0N 66.5W 1003 46
0000UTC 31.07.2020 60 18.9N 68.6W 1002 46
1200UTC 31.07.2020 72 20.0N 70.6W 1002 45
0000UTC 01.08.2020 84 20.8N 73.6W 1002 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 96 21.9N 75.5W 1003 40
0000UTC 02.08.2020 108 23.3N 76.8W 1001 45
1200UTC 02.08.2020 120 24.9N 77.7W 996 47
0000UTC 03.08.2020 132 26.5N 78.1W 990 51
1200UTC 03.08.2020 144 28.1N 78.5W 985 53
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 15.3N 61.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2020 24 15.3N 61.1W 1006 36
0000UTC 30.07.2020 36 16.7N 63.7W 1004 40
1200UTC 30.07.2020 48 18.0N 66.5W 1003 46
0000UTC 31.07.2020 60 18.9N 68.6W 1002 46
1200UTC 31.07.2020 72 20.0N 70.6W 1002 45
0000UTC 01.08.2020 84 20.8N 73.6W 1002 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 96 21.9N 75.5W 1003 40
0000UTC 02.08.2020 108 23.3N 76.8W 1001 45
1200UTC 02.08.2020 120 24.9N 77.7W 996 47
0000UTC 03.08.2020 132 26.5N 78.1W 990 51
1200UTC 03.08.2020 144 28.1N 78.5W 985 53
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
12z Canadian has a strong TS/Cat 1 about to make landfall in South Florida. Not liking this at all.....
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:12z Canadian has a strong TS/Cat 1 about to make landfall in South Florida. Not liking this at all.....
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202007 ... 977387.jpg
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102 hours, too... The timeline for this keeps getting faster.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
ColdMiser123 wrote:UKMET significantly stronger:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 15.3N 61.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2020 24 15.3N 61.1W 1006 36
0000UTC 30.07.2020 36 16.7N 63.7W 1004 40
1200UTC 30.07.2020 48 18.0N 66.5W 1003 46
0000UTC 31.07.2020 60 18.9N 68.6W 1002 46
1200UTC 31.07.2020 72 20.0N 70.6W 1002 45
0000UTC 01.08.2020 84 20.8N 73.6W 1002 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 96 21.9N 75.5W 1003 40
0000UTC 02.08.2020 108 23.3N 76.8W 1001 45
1200UTC 02.08.2020 120 24.9N 77.7W 996 47
0000UTC 03.08.2020 132 26.5N 78.1W 990 51
1200UTC 03.08.2020 144 28.1N 78.5W 985 53
And it is intensifying it as it moves through the Bahamas, ends up close to South Florida.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
HWRF is running... Through 39 hours, it's further S and W at the same point than any of the previous 3 cycles. Looks like it's going to clip Puerto Rico.
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jlauderdal
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: NINE - Models
I dont like that track at all, anything coming in from that trajectory is dangerous, look for an intensity increase from nhcWeatherEmperor wrote:12z Canadian has a strong TS/Cat 1 about to make landfall in South Florida. Not liking this at all.....
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Where’s the dry air the HWRF was forecasting within 72hrs?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:gatorcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:12z poofing this right of the SE FL Coast @126hrs
Yet the model shows a very favorable upper-level wind pattern that sets up as it approaches SE Florida. Hot water, slow moving, system. Hmmm...
https://i.postimg.cc/L4vgxfHT/gfs-shear-watl-22.png
Dry air.
https://i.ibb.co/56sqB9k/gfs-mid-RH-watl-22.png
Appears to be so. I can tell you I've never seen dry air kill a storm completely near Florida in late-July.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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jlauderdal
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Where are the OTS posts from 48 hrs ago...the dry air idea is way overdone, this system will thrive if it stays off the pr and dr but a trip over or south of those islands is not a crazy ideaAutoPenalti wrote:Where’s the dry air the HWRF was forecasting within 72hrs?
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Where’s the dry air the HWRF was forecasting within 72hrs?
Hurricane 987mb near Cuba. RH looks good thus far through 50hrs
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supercane4867
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
SFLcane wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Where’s the dry air the HWRF was forecasting within 72hrs?
Hurricane 987mb near Cuba. RH looks good thus far through 50hrs
Yikes. Add 4mb for correction and that’s a Cat 1.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: NINE - Models
I really wouldn't buy in completely on the GFS just poofing the system into nothing, as really no other model does this. In fact, uk now shows strengthening as well as CMC and HWRF. Seeing the miss on Hanna last week should keep everyone's eyes wide open, as we know that particular area of the basin is notorious
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