ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

Will the front that's suppose to come through Houston come in time to spare us?

Yes, it's quite likely the system will remain well east of Houston. I'm not worried about significant impacts from it across TX.

really gutsy to day when it hasn't went through the channel yet, euro has been west bias but what if its right this time???

[SoupBone]

Will the front that's suppose to come through Houston come in time to spare us?

Even Levi is mentioning Galveston. We should still be concerned here in the Greater Houston Area.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313483973922783232

[ElectricStorm]

That <-80C perfectly circular CDO with a pinhole starting to show up on visible is a terrifying sight. Imagine how nuts Delta is going to be once that clears out...

The HWRF showed that pinhole a couple days ago... It has been pretty impressive with storm structure this year.

...but not consistent run to run (a few runs later it had the system much weaker). Just looking at the oceanic and atmospheric conditions; anyone even passingly familiar with tropical cyclogenesis wouldn't need a model to tell them what were seeing now was always a strong possibility.

Oh yeah definitely

[Steve]

Will the front that's suppose to come through Houston come in time to spare us?

Yes, it's quite likely the system will remain well east of Houston. I'm not worried about significant impacts from it across TX.

really gutsy to day when it hasn't went through the channel yet, euro has been west bias but what if its right this time???

South Texas Storms is one of the best. EC could be right, but it looks like the SE TX Coast might be a little too far left when the squeeze play is on. It's not a given of course, but if for some reason we get a random 200 nm swing west (e.g. Friday before Katrina), NHC and pro-mets will know enough in advance to give us warnings. Levi's point (to the post after the one I'm replying too) is an elevated risk threat. Certainly not everyone from Galveston to Pensacola are going to get significant effects. But many will. Looking forward to the 12z runs to see where we are. NAM should be out and getting close to landfall timing, then the ICON in a bit.

[plasticup]

Will the front that's suppose to come through Houston come in time to spare us?

Even Levi is mentioning Galveston. We should still be concerned here in the Greater Houston Area.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313483973922783232

I mean sure, be aware of it. 4-5 days out the track error is often 200+ miles. But Galveston isn't under the gun the same was Louisiana is.

[GCANE]

Biggest cluster of eyewall lightning strikes so far.
May indicate an even higher rate of intensification may be forth coming.

[Mob1]

Can someone please post the actual track overlay compared to the NHC official one. My wife is in Cancun and I'm obsessively tracking every inch of latitude Delta gains.

[GCANE]

Eye has contracted a bit to 5 nm closed.
RH at 89%

[wx98]

Now Cat 3
100 kt/115 mph
955 mbar

[Gabeseth24]

Just now getting back to somewhat normal in Sulphur/Lake Charles area. Thinking I may need to spend some time on my tarps this evening!

Hopefully it weakens before landfall if it keeps shifting west towards us

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1313491140457500678

[ElectricStorm]

Eye has contracted a bit to 5 nm closed.
RH at 89%

Now that's a pinhole... Look out folks

[MississippiWx]

Can someone please post the actual track overlay compared to the NHC official one. My wife is in Cancun and I'm obsessively tracking every inch of latitude Delta gains.

Is there any way she can leave?

She could very possibly experience a Cat 4-5 hurricane tonight. She will probably be stuck there for a while if she can’t leave.

[Fancy1001]

It looks like the core of the storm on IR has become completely circular and perhaps symmetrical.

[Fancy1001]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[gotabyte]

.REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE DELTA IS
NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

[Steve]

Can someone please post the actual track overlay compared to the NHC official one. My wife is in Cancun and I'm obsessively tracking every inch of latitude Delta gains.

Dude. Is she just visiting or working down there? If she's able, and it can be tough to move around down there off the highways due to all the armed guard posts. But getting on the highways and driving south might be a solid option at this point. Cancun is liable to take the biggest hit of the season. As someone else who's been down there (Puerto Morelos), I met some really nice people. Best to everyone down in Quintana Roo.

[GCANE]

Can someone please post the actual track overlay compared to the NHC official one. My wife is in Cancun and I'm obsessively tracking every inch of latitude Delta gains.

Fresh VDM tags it 18.12N 82.56W
Just a tad south or west of the forecast. Not a significant delta. Could even be wobble.
I wouldn't hesitate getting the heck out of Cancun or at least getting a handle where the shelters will be.

[St0rmTh0r]

Can someone please post the actual track overlay compared to the NHC official one. My wife is in Cancun and I'm obsessively tracking every inch of latitude Delta gains.

Not to sound personal but what's your wife doing in Cancun without you? I'd be tracking the storm as well as her!

[chaser1]

Anyone care to venture what Delta's lowest pressure will be? I'm going to go with 914mb