ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF does a Dorian and makes a right angle turn north.

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF, 90 hours, 969MB, 100 knot 10M winds, just east of Andros Island moving WNW

Heading more NW through 96, missing Andros to the West.

[Blown Away]

if any system crosses Andros it is pretty difficult to miss florida at that point.

HWRF turning NW at 90 hrs appears to miss SFL?

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF, 90 hours, 969MB, 100 knot 10M winds, just east of Andros Island moving WNW

Heading more NW through 96, missing Andros to the West.

Yep, let's watch for a slowdown in forward speed. If we see a slowdown or stall then all bets are off. The CMC was the first to pick up on the initial turn to the north followed by a slow turn back to the west.

[AutoPenalti]

if any system crosses Andros it is pretty difficult to miss florida at that point.

Dorian would like a word.

[WeatherEmperor]

Aaaaaaand it starts turning NW looking to just miss Florida to the east. How many times have we seen this before?




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[Beef Stew]

HWRF barely skirts the eastern side of New Providence and Nassau at 96 hours and 90kts. Stall or slowdown possibly coming.

[SFLcane]

Seems to have banked wnw again

[AnnularCane]

if any system crosses Andros it is pretty difficult to miss florida at that point.

Dorian would like a word.

Well, to be fair, he didn't say "impossible."

[Aric Dunn]

if any system crosses Andros it is pretty difficult to miss florida at that point.

Dorian would like a word.

Well, to be fair, he didn't say "impossible."

I also "if" it crosses Andros..

it did not ..

[TheStormExpert]

Yet the model shows a very favorable upper-level wind pattern that sets up as it approaches SE Florida. Hot water, slow moving, system. Hmmm...

https://i.postimg.cc/L4vgxfHT/gfs-shear-watl-22.png

Dry air.

https://i.ibb.co/56sqB9k/gfs-mid-RH-watl-22.png

Appears to be so. I can tell you I've never seen dry air kill a storm completely near Florida in late-July.

NDG said this dry air is to be expected but there’s seems to be a lot more throughout the basin and it’s more dense, same with SAL.

[TheStormExpert]

Aaaaaaand it starts turning NW looking to just miss Florida to the east. How many times have we seen this before?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/2e70d2f7e525c11a5fc7bdbc7de1b0b2.jpg


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Metropolitan SE Florida must have some great hurricane repellent on!

The same stuff that’s spared Hawaii multiple times in the last six years.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like a big slow down in forward speed on the HWRF when it gets to the NW Bahamas. Once again we wait. I wouldn't put much stock in any strength or track until it gets clear of Hispaniola. Once we see how that will play out then we can get a better idea of where this is going and what it will be when it gets there.

[SouthFLTropics]

Aaaaaaand it starts turning NW looking to just miss Florida to the east. How many times have we seen this before?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/2e70d2f7e525c11a5fc7bdbc7de1b0b2.jpg


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Metropolitan SE Florida must have some great hurricane repellent on!

The same stuff that’s spared Hawaii multiple times in the last six years.

It's jLauderdale's generator force field. The HWRF took it into account.

[Shell Mound]

Aaaaaaand it starts turning NW looking to just miss Florida to the east. How many times have we seen this before?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/2e70d2f7e525c11a5fc7bdbc7de1b0b2.jpg


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Metropolitan SE Florida must have some great hurricane repellent on!

The same stuff that’s spared Hawaii multiple times in the last six years.

Don’t tempt 2020. Please. Sooner or later people will be shocked—and not in a good way. We’ve seen too many close calls within the past three years.

[supercane4867]

The upcoming HWRF replacement is SW and weaker of the operational runs.



Landfall on Miami as a CAT1 @ 117hr

[SouthFLTropics]

That HWRF Para run still brings a Cat 1 into Miami-Dade and Broward.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... Slightly E of 00z and moves through the Central Bahamas... Initially stronger than 00z but finishes slightly weaker...

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro is running...

[Shell Mound]

Aaaaaaand it starts turning NW looking to just miss Florida to the east. How many times have we seen this before?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/2e70d2f7e525c11a5fc7bdbc7de1b0b2.jpg


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Bear in mind that the HWRF is based in part on NCEP’s G(E)FS and likely significantly underestimates the strength and westward extension of the WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) by days five and six. The past six runs of the EPS have shown a significantly stronger WAR than the GEFS, the latter of which is actually trending toward the EPS but is still catching up. I would not assume that a stronger system will necessarily miss FL, given that the GEFS and its offshoots are notorious for underestimating ridge extensions during highly amplified patterns.