ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

I would be cautious about analyzing current center fixes for a storm that doesn't yet have a well defined low level center.

[CM2]

Look at those pink tops!

[Vdogg]

That’s some serious convection, more than I’ve seen with this storm during it’s lifetime. Might be finally ready to take off.

[CM2]

I would be cautious about analyzing current center fixes for a storm that doesn't yet have a well defined low level center.

Well I'm just watching to see if anything forms, looks as if something was starting to get together. It was just my unprofessional opinion.

[typhoonty]

I would be cautious about analyzing current center fixes for a storm that doesn't yet have a well defined low level center.

I agree with you in principle. Isn't this what the NHC is doing though with their advisories? I've seen several pro mets gripe about having a cone without a center due to this.

[JaxGator]

Look at those pink tops!
https://imgur.com/v6v8Csl

Those thunderstorms are just plowing through the lighter convection. Wow.

[ColdMiser123]

I would be cautious about analyzing current center fixes for a storm that doesn't yet have a well defined low level center.

I agree with you in principle. Isn't this what the NHC is doing though with their advisories? I've seen several pro mets gripe about having a cone without a center due to this.

I like the idea of a Potential Tropical Cyclone a lot since it communicates a track and impacts farther in advance. When a center does form though, the coordinates could change drastically depending on which side of the wave envelope it forms.

[chaser1]

I believe as we type, 9 is developing a core. Through the vapor and microwave we can see how the core is taking shape a little further south than expected but it is there. Of course this is my opinion from looking at these images but I'm not crazy right, the models had this happening.
https://imgur.com/6kdmrWZ
Microwave also shows a little ring in the works around the same area.
https://imgur.com/HdY90fn

Unironically the western blob is winning out. Team east blob devastated

Yep, I'm looking pretty much at the same point. Was just going to post that a LLC "appears" to be trying to form on the eastern side of "blob west", at approx. 12.5N & 58.0 W. Biggest question I have is whether the potential LLC can keep up with the convection to it's immediate west. This may again prove to be yet one more orphaned LLC as a result of uber-fast mid level easterlies. That's the main reason I don't expect to see any real consolidation until this system enters the E. Carribbean in 24-48 hours. THEN let's play model wars

[TheStormExpert]

It's late July and just a few days ago we had a hurricane make landfall on the CONUS. Just because one absolute unit of a wave is struggling to pull it together doesn't mean conditions are suddenly suboptimal

this storm shouldn't really be here right now in the first place. the waves in 2017 during this time of year failed to develop in this location.

how this event can be spun into an outlook for an unfavorable season is beyond me.

How TheStormExpert's post can be spun into an outlook for an unfavorable season is also beyond me

Well you can’t blame me!

I mean literally does anyone really want a busy season after what we’ve been putting up with this year along with the last 3-4 seasons?

[Vdogg]

Seeing hints of a core. I think she’s (he’s?) making a run for it. With that type of convection this thing might look vicious by the morning.

[CM2]

:chopper:

I believe as we type, 9 is developing a core. Through the vapor and microwave we can see how the core is taking shape a little further south than expected but it is there. Of course this is my opinion from looking at these images but I'm not crazy right, the models had this happening.
https://imgur.com/6kdmrWZ
Microwave also shows a little ring in the works around the same area.
https://imgur.com/HdY90fn

Unironically the western blob is winning out. Team east blob devastated

Yep, I'm looking pretty much at the same point. Was just going to post that a LLC "appears" to be trying to form on the eastern side of "blob west", at approx. 12.5N & 58.0 W. Biggest question I have is whether the potential LLC can keep up with the convection to it's immediate west. This may again prove to be yet one more orphaned LLC as a result of uber-fast mid level easterlies. That's the main reason I don't expect to see any real consolidation until this system enters the E. Carribbean in 24-48 hours. THEN let's play model wars

In the meanwhile we're in the midst of the 'Great Blob War'

[hipshot]

I would be cautious about analyzing current center fixes for a storm that doesn't yet have a well defined low level center.

I agree with you in principle. Isn't this what the NHC is doing though with their advisories? I've seen several pro mets gripe about having a cone without a center due to this.

I like the idea of a Potential Tropical Cyclone a lot since it communicates a track and impacts farther in advance. When a center does form though, the coordinates could change drastically depending on which side of the wave envelope it forms.

What is the invest just behind the PTC symbol, first time I've seen it?

[CM2]

I agree with you in principle. Isn't this what the NHC is doing though with their advisories? I've seen several pro mets gripe about having a cone without a center due to this.

I like the idea of a Potential Tropical Cyclone a lot since it communicates a track and impacts farther in advance. When a center does form though, the coordinates could change drastically depending on which side of the wave envelope it forms.

What is the invest just behind the PTC symbol, first time I've seen it?

That's just what the storm used to be, mods haven't removed it yet probably.

[AxaltaRacing24]

this storm shouldn't really be here right now in the first place. the waves in 2017 during this time of year failed to develop in this location.

how this event can be spun into an outlook for an unfavorable season is beyond me.

How TheStormExpert's post can be spun into an outlook for an unfavorable season is also beyond me

Well you can’t blame me!

I mean literally does anyone really want a busy season after what we’ve been putting up with this year along with the last 3-4 seasons?

i agree with that. i'd rather this season bust than exceed expectations.

[Visioen]

I mean literally does anyone really want a busy season after what we’ve been putting up with this year along with the last 3-4 seasons?

I'm afraid wanting might not have a lot of effect on the end result here

[ColdMiser123]

I agree with you in principle. Isn't this what the NHC is doing though with their advisories? I've seen several pro mets gripe about having a cone without a center due to this.

I like the idea of a Potential Tropical Cyclone a lot since it communicates a track and impacts farther in advance. When a center does form though, the coordinates could change drastically depending on which side of the wave envelope it forms.

What is the invest just behind the PTC symbol, first time I've seen it?

PTC 9 was 92L before it was classified as a PTC earlier today.

[Vdogg]

Looks suspiciously like a tightly spinning CDO is starting to form. TS by 11?

[Dean4Storms]

This continues on a more westward track and not gaining much latitude and if it struggles to develop tonight and into tomorrow there is little expectancy from me that this moves north of Hispaniola, if anything it might miss to the South! Models having to shift westward with a TW this large should not be a surprise.

[hipshot]

I like the idea of a Potential Tropical Cyclone a lot since it communicates a track and impacts farther in advance. When a center does form though, the coordinates could change drastically depending on which side of the wave envelope it forms.

What is the invest just behind the PTC symbol, first time I've seen it?

PTC 9 was 92L before it was classified as a PTC earlier today.

It wasn't there right after PTC9 was designated at least I don't remember seeing it yesterday or when ever it was disignated PTC9.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is going to have a hard time forming a core if it's still going 25 mph. It's gotta slow down some first or it will never get stacked.