ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JamesRainier]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1320890921223966721

[Steve]

We haven’t really done any prep. I have water and booze along with a mostly empty refrigerator. I’ll probably work remote on Wednesday, so I’ll be up early anyway and can grab any last minute provisions for what looks to be a quick in, quick out but possibly stiff shot. It would be kind of random if Zeta ends up being our strongest hit in N.O. after all the tropical days we have had and threats this year like I’ve never seen before. I kind of don’t expect much, but if the center does come as close to the city as some of the afternoon models indicated, we could get a real storm out of this.

[NDG]

Good webcam from Cancun, not too dark but the sound is amazing.

https://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam- ... ancun-faro

[Uptownmeow]

We haven’t really done any prep. I have water and booze along with a mostly empty refrigerator. I’ll probably work remote on Wednesday, so I’ll be up early anyway and can grab any last minute provisions for what looks to be a quick in, quick out but possibly stiff shot. It would be kind of random if Zeta ends up being our strongest hit in N.O. after all the tropical days we have had and threats this year like I’ve never seen before. I kind of don’t expect much, but if the center does come as close to the city as some of the afternoon models indicated, we could get a real storm out of this.

Same thing we’re doing here. And probably everyone else. Hopefully Wednesday morning won’t be too insane

[Hurricane Mike]

Good webcam from Cancun, not too dark but the sound is amazing.

https://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam- ... ancun-faro

You're not kidding. This thing is gonna slam them good the next few hours.

[HeeBGBz]

We haven’t really done any prep. I have water and booze along with a mostly empty refrigerator. I’ll probably work remote on Wednesday, so I’ll be up early anyway and can grab any last minute provisions for what looks to be a quick in, quick out but possibly stiff shot. It would be kind of random if Zeta ends up being our strongest hit in N.O. after all the tropical days we have had and threats this year like I’ve never seen before. I kind of don’t expect much, but if the center does come as close to the city as some of the afternoon models indicated, we could get a real storm out of this.

Same thing we’re doing here. And probably everyone else. Hopefully Wednesday morning won’t be too insane

After 3 close calls, I think this one will make it here. I can't seem to muster any preparing however. I may make one run to the store. After that I'll make do. Good luck all.

[Astromanía]

45 min ago.

https://i.ibb.co/594Rmmw/20201026-2227-f18-91pct91h91v-28-L-ZETA-70kts-981mb-19-4-N-85-7-W-080pc.jpg

Oof I hope my people there are ok, this came almost out of nowhere , do you think this could be stronger than Delta at landfall in the riviera maya? It must be horrible to be again in a huricane just weeks apart..., That beautiful place that depends almost just in tourism don't deserve this

[smw1981]

We haven’t really done any prep. I have water and booze along with a mostly empty refrigerator. I’ll probably work remote on Wednesday, so I’ll be up early anyway and can grab any last minute provisions for what looks to be a quick in, quick out but possibly stiff shot. It would be kind of random if Zeta ends up being our strongest hit in N.O. after all the tropical days we have had and threats this year like I’ve never seen before. I kind of don’t expect much, but if the center does come as close to the city as some of the afternoon models indicated, we could get a real storm out of this.

Same thing we’re doing here. And probably everyone else. Hopefully Wednesday morning won’t be too insane

After 3 close calls, I think this one will make it here. I can't seem to muster any preparing however. I may make one run to the store. After that I'll make do. Good luck all.

I went to the store today and bought bread and oranges. Still had peanut butter, jelly and water from the last threat. I figure we are ready now..

[ClarCari]

Per the 10PM CDT:

“The hurricane is running out of time to get much stronger before
landfall during the next couple of hours, but some increase in
intensity is possible. Zeta should spend less than 12 hours over
land as it crosses Yucatan, but that's enough time to probably drop
it below hurricane strength early tomorrow. However, environmental
conditions are unseasonably conducive for intensification so late in
the year in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, with fairly
light shear and warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. The
peak intensity forecast is raised slightly after considering those
factors, and some models like the HWRF or ECMWF even suggest it
could get a little stronger. As the hurricane nears the northern
Gulf Coast, it is likely to encounter stronger shear and cooler
waters, so some weakening is anticipated, but Zeta is still expected
to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally similar to the previous one, lying above the
model consensus.”

Spoookkyyyyy

It’ll likely do as forecasted the next 12 hours but if that eyewall is still intact once it enters the Gulf, the ceiling could get pretty interesting depending on other factors as well.

The surge forecast depends heavilyyyyy on it’s max intensity in the Gulf as well.

[Astromanía]

I just saw the satellite imagery, this doesn't have time anymore to strengthen before landfall at yucatan, that's good

[JamesRainier]

I went to the store today and bought bread and oranges. Still had peanut butter, jelly and water from the last threat. I figure we are ready now..

My mom is from Canada and got her hurricane training from a woman from East Texas.

"Children like peanut butter and jelly?"

Fresh squeezed orange juice and Sterno cans was a treat of hurricanes.

As kids we built hurricane houses in the living room whether or not there was a storm.

[us89]

Looks like Zeta is going to absolutely book it across the southeast, completing the trip from Louisiana landfall to the Delmarva area in about 24 hours.

That means it won't have a whole lot of time to weaken as it moves across land, so we may get one of the most significant inland penetrations of TS winds that we've seen in quite some time. The weakest forecast point on the latest advisory is a 40 mph TS over northeast Alabama, from which it strengthens as it goes through extratropical transition.

[aspen]

Okay, can this PLEASE be the last Gulf hurricane of 2020?

[PTrackerLA]

Hopefully this is a quick in and out weakening cat 1 that goes just east of Nola Metro. Not gonna lie, I'm relieved we're out of the woods. I wouldn't have had it in me to seriously prep for a 3rd time along with all the cleanup. Laura was pretty crazy high end tropical storm with frequent lightning and a 3 hour long tornado warning with torrential flooding rain and Delta was a bona-fide cat 1 not experienced for my area since Lili 2002. We were still lucky.. We're exhausted but made it through the season ok and I hope Zeta is more bark than bite for NOLA and points east.

[ElectricStorm]

So I've been thinking... Since Zeta is going to absolutely haul over the GOM, could it get to the coast before the shear takes a toll on it? I've noticed some recent model runs now have the pressure holding steady, maybe even lowering a bit, through landfall...

Also, Zeta's going to book it in the gulf. It will probably give Nate a run for its money for the speed record in the GOM right?

[skyline385]

0Z GFS getting onboard with 18Z EURO and HWRF with a stronger run, landfall around NOLA at 973mb

[edu2703]

Models are showing Zeta steadily intensifying in the gulf and not weakening before the 2nd landfall. Really thought the conditions in the gulf would be much more hostile for a tropical cyclone.

[edu2703]

...ZETA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF TULUM...

Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that
the center of Hurricane Zeta made landfall along the northeast coast
of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico near Ciudad Chemuyil around 11:00
PM CDT (0400 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 80 mph (130 km/h),
a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A WeatherFlow observing site just south of Ciudad Chemuyil recently
reported a pressure of 978 mb (28.88 inches).

A WeatherFlow observing site just south of Playa del Carmen recently
reported a sustained one-minute wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust
to 87 mph (140 km/h).

A WeatherFlow observing site in Cancun recently reported a wind
gust to 79 mph (127 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 87.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stewart

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1320939331649941504

[ClarCari]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1320939331649941504

Bless Josh Morgerman and his experience!

I’m so glad the NHC uses data such as his to get exact data on landfall intensities.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the pressure data, I would estimate 75 kt for the landfall intensity as it probably strengthened a bit after Recon left.