SIO: 05 - Tropical Depression (INVEST 09S)

[Nancy Smar]

94S INVEST 200117 1800 7.3S 61.5E SHEM 15 1008

[alan1961]

latest invest 94S is not forecast to do much, depression at best i would say.
watch the mozambique channel inside about 60hours, should have the next
invest in a day or two.

94S



Mozambique channel about 60 hours

[Nancy Smar]

WTIO30 FMEE 211229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5
2.A POSITION 2020/01/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 67.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: SW: NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/22 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2020/01/22 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/23 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/23 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/24 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/24 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/25 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED SOUTH SOUTH-WEST TO
THE DDEP CONVECTION, DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXISTING
OVER THE AREA.
CONVECTION IS ALWAYS SUPPLIED BY A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EQUATORLY, WHILE THE POLAR CONVERGENCE REMAINS DEFICIENT.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY BENEFITE FROM A LITTLE WINDOW OF
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THRUSDAY DUE TO A CLEAR WEAKENING OF THE
VERTICAL SHEAR. FROM THRUSDAY THE SYSTEM BEGIN TO TRACK UNDER THE
JET, AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN, AS BEGIN A EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BEFOR
TO EVACUATE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL THROUGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
LATITUDES.
THE ACTUAL INTENSITY DO NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUING OF REGULAR WARNING.=

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneRiley5/status/1220836899918696448