SPAC: VICKY - Ex-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

97P INVEST 200219 1800 13.0S 174.6W SHEM 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

WTPS21 PGTW 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 174.6W TO 15.8S 171.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 174.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.1S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
200145Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GOOD EASTWARD DIFFLUENCE, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INVEST 97P IS EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT BAND OF
TROUGHING WITH STRONGER (25-30 KNOTS) WINDS DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 97P WILL
MARGINALLY STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE AS IT CONTINUES ON A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210400Z.
//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

STORM WARNING 046 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 200133 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 174.5W AT 200000
UTC. TD09F MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR.
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 TO
120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 18 HOURS.
AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.3S 172.3W AT 201200 UTC
AND NEAR 15.7S 170.8W AT 210000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 045.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 200139 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 174.5W
AT 200000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS
TRYING TO WRAP ONTO THE LLCC. OGANISATION HAS IMPROVED. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
INITIALLY AND SOUTHWARDS THEREAFTER WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 14.3S 172.3W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 15.7S 170.8W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 17.2S 170.3W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 18.6S 169.7W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200800 UTC.

[wxman57]

Latest Forecast:

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Niue ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 201453 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT


A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8 SOUTH 172.2
WEST OR ABOUT 630KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 12AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF UP TO 55KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY
GUSTS OF 85KM/HR. DEPRESSION INTENSIFYING. DEPRESSION IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 18KM/HR.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.6 SOUTH 168.8 WEST AT 12AM TODAY AND MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 13KM/HR TOWARDS
NIUE.


ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE TD09F CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 420KM
NORTH OF NIUE AT MIDDAY TOMORROW AND 240KM NORTH OF NIUE AT MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NIUE FROM TONIGHT.

FOR NIUE:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG
WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UPTO 50 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 75KM/HR FROM LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE
SPEEDS OF 85KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 120KM/HR FROM LATER TOMORROW.
OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME
FREQUENT WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER TONIGHT.

[1900hurricane]

Looking pretty good. Someone wake JTWC up.

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 202316 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY CATEGORY 1 CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 171.1W AT 202230 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS
WRAPPING ONTO THE LLCC. OGANISATION IMPROVED. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE
IT SOUTHEASTWARDS INITIALLY AND SOUTHWARDS THEREAFTER WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 211030 UTC 16.2S 170.2W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 212230 UTC 17.3S 169.7W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 221030 UTC 18.0S 169.4W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 222230 UTC 18.6S 169.1W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 210200 UTC.