SPAC: HAROLD - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

The pressure at the Tsunami station is starting to get pretty jagged like you sometimes see on one of Josh Morgerman's barographs, so I think it's pretty safe to say that the station is experiencing eyewall conditions right now.

[doomhaMwx]

[WAcyclone]

Looks like Luganville is indeed currently in the eye of Harold, as the GPM microwave pass posted above already suggests. Central pressure appears to be around 955 mb.

[1900hurricane]

That GPM pass was actually very helpful in determining the center location. Looks like minor geostationary parallax error put Harold a little too far south when using Himawari-8 to make center fixes. I was using the Schloemer Equation to make pressure estimates from that station, but it looks like there is no need now!

[1900hurricane]

Also worth noting that Hurricane Maria filled by about 20 mb when crossing Dominica in 2017. If a similar pressure fill occurred here with Harold, JTWC's 18Z intensity still holds up. Their 125 kt intensity estimate at the time gave me a 933 mb pressure (even though they used 930 mb for some reason), so definitely in the ballpark.

[mrbagyo]

[1900hurricane]

This thing is as grumpy as I am when I have a program that doesn't work.

[1900hurricane]

Interesting to note on the barograph how much more quickly the pressure is rising than it was falling earlier. Probably because earlier the system was filling as it was approaching while crossing the southern portion of the island, but now it's deepening again as it's back over water and departing.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 APR 2020 Time : 044000 UTC
Lat : 15:41:23 S Lon : 167:36:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 939.1mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

[Yellow Evan]

No reason not to declare this 135-140 knots at this point.

TXPS41 PHFO 060528
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC MON APR 06 2020

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD - (25P)

B. 06/0500Z

C. 15.7S

D. 167.7E

E. HIMAWARI

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. VIS/IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG WITH 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT
YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. PT AND MET AGREES. FINAL T BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.


$$

[mrbagyo]

About to slam Pentecost Island (home of the tribe known for bungee jumping from a wooden tower made from branches / twigs using only vines or lianas as their bungee cord)

[Nancy Smar]

TPPS11 PGTW 060618
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)

B. 06/0550Z

C. 15.74S

D. 167.72E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET IS 6.5. PT IS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

[Nancy Smar]

25P: HAROLD (140kt 916mb)

25P.HAROLD.130kts.926mb.15.8S.167.8E

SH, 25, 2020040606, , BEST, 0, 158S, 1678E, 135, 920, ST, 64, NEQ, 35, 35, 35, 25, 1002, 180, 12, 0, 15, P, 0, , 0, 0, HAROLD, D,

It seems that JTWC is not sure about the intensity of Harold, they revised it three times.
However, Harold is rapidly intensifying now. If this trend continues, it could be upgraded to a category 5 cyclone at 12Z.

[Kingarabian]

About to slam Pentecost Island (home of the tribe known for bungee jumping from a wooden tower made from branches / twigs using only vines or lianas as their bungee cord)

[url]https://s6.gifyu.com/images/hp2_snd_0630.jpg[/rl]

I'm pretty sure this is above 140kts. Crazy.

[Kingarabian]

No reason not to declare this 135-140 knots at this point.

TXPS41 PHFO 060528
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC MON APR 06 2020

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD - (25P)

B. 06/0500Z

C. 15.7S

D. 167.7E

E. HIMAWARI

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. VIS/IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG WITH 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT
YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. PT AND MET AGREES. FINAL T BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.


$$

Models did a helluva a job to sniff out a week in advance.

[Kingarabian]

This might edge out Pam 2015 as the 2nd strongest cyclone in the SPAC on record. These WWB induced Cyclones/Typhoons don't mess around.

[Hayabusa]

This would've been a raw beyond 7.5 (7.7) if this was in the WPAC

2020APR06 071000 6.9 922.6 137.4 6.9 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.92 -81.66 EYE 17 IR 59.7 -15.82 -168.05 ARCHER HIM-8 36.4

[mrbagyo]

25P HAROLD 200406 0600 15.8S 167.8E SHEM 135 920

[Kingarabian]

Some point blank explosive RI: