SPAC: HAROLD - Post-Tropical
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doomhaMwx
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Looks like it is undergoing ERC, and probably some effects of shear there too?
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Looks like it is undergoing ERC, and probably some effects of shear there too?
https://i.imgur.com/x7o4J9u.gif
https://i.imgur.com/ZaTJe0p.gif
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/SHEM/25P.HAROLD/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20200404.0620.f18.x.91h_1deg.25PHAROLD.90kts-966mb-139S-1640E.087pc.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/jK1t6eW.gif
I think it’s mainly the impact of shear, because that eye wasn’t around long enough for a secondary eyewall to form (which also doesn’t appear on microwave imagery).
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Yep, it’s shear. That eyewall has cracked open: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 040949.gif
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
25P HAROLD 200404 1200 14.6S 165.1E SHEM 115 941
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
cycloneye wrote:25P HAROLD 200404 1200 14.6S 165.1E SHEM 115 941
Better late than never, but this just shows the JTWC has learned nothing after the train wreck that was October-December 2019.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Harold is producing an entire CDO of Cold Dark Grey, <-80 C convection. If shear relaxes and allows the eyewall to recover, we could see it try to bomb out again. SSTs and OHC will remain quite high for at least another day or so.
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1900hurricane
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Pretty clear to see that backing shear is an issue right now, as others have already stated.
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Astromanía
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
It is going to make landfall, isn't? What country are those islands?
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Stays at 115 kts.
25P HAROLD 200404 1800 14.9S 165.5E SHEM 115 940
25P HAROLD 200404 1800 14.9S 165.5E SHEM 115 940
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
It seems like the core is trying to recover: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 041827.gif
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1900hurricane
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Still taking enough backing shear to keep it disrupted. I think it may have peaked 18 hours ago or so.
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1246607569503899649
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1246607569503899649
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
1900hurricane wrote:Still taking enough backing shear to keep it disrupted. I think it may have peaked 18 hours ago or so.
https://i.imgur.com/nxK6ceh.gif
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1246607569503899649
Yeah, it probably peaked with that almost clear pinhole eye, probably at 115-120 kt. If backshear held off for a few hours and allowed the eye to fully clear, we could’ve seen Harold reach Cat 5 intensity before weakening.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Going down.
25P HAROLD 200405 0000 15.4S 165.9E SHEM 105 950
25P HAROLD 200405 0000 15.4S 165.9E SHEM 105 950
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doomhaMwx
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Its very slow movement is bringing prolonged impacts to northern and central Vanuatu.
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doomhaMwx
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Looking much better now. 
When that eye clears out...
When that eye clears out...
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 APR 2020 Time : 124000 UTC
Lat : 15:24:35 S Lon : 165:46:47 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 929.1mb/129.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -40.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 APR 2020 Time : 124000 UTC
Lat : 15:24:35 S Lon : 165:46:47 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 929.1mb/129.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -40.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C
TPPS11 PGTW 051224
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 05/1200Z
C. 15.36S
D. 165.62E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.5. MET/PT AGREE.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0734Z 15.57S 165.43E SSMS
MARTIN
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 05/1200Z
C. 15.36S
D. 165.62E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.5. MET/PT AGREE.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0734Z 15.57S 165.43E SSMS
MARTIN
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Looking much better now.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020sh25/4kmirimg/2020sh25_4kmirimg_202004051240.gif
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020sh25/4kmsrbdc/2020sh25_4kmsrbdc_202004051240.jpgUW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 APR 2020 Time : 124000 UTC
Lat : 15:24:35 S Lon : 165:46:47 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 929.1mb/129.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -40.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8CTPPS11 PGTW 051224
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 05/1200Z
C. 15.36S
D. 165.62E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.5. MET/PT AGREE.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0734Z 15.57S 165.43E SSMS
MARTIN
Wow, I did not expect Harold to make such a recovery. It’s probably in the range of 120-130 kt right now, and once that eye clears out, it’s an easy T#7.0
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1900hurricane
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
Convection once again has the edge over the shear, and you can see a 'shockwave' emanate out to the N and NW on the water vapor loop I have below (might need to click on it).
SMAP also got it in the few hours previous and showed ~101 kt 1 minute winds at 07Z.
SMAP also got it in the few hours previous and showed ~101 kt 1 minute winds at 07Z.
SH, 25, 202004050700, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1560S, 16550E, , 1, 89, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 95, 71, , , , , 1, 0, , P, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
SH, 25, 202004050700, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1560S, 16550E, , 1, 89, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 31, 50, 54, 42, , , , , 1, 0, , P, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
SH, 25, 202004050700, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1560S, 16550E, , 1, 89, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 19, 24, 35, 33, , , , , 1, 0, , P, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
SH, 25, 202004050700, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1560S, 16550E, , 1, 89, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 31, 50, 54, 42, , , , , 1, 0, , P, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
SH, 25, 202004050700, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1560S, 16550E, , 1, 89, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 19, 24, 35, 33, , , , , 1, 0, , P, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
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1900hurricane
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
With the caveat that I haven't done any Dvorak analysis lately (a mainstay for TC intensity estimation), the 101 kt SMAP pass can be coupled with a 108 kt AMSU estimate about 30 minutes apart to derive a 105 kt intensity at 06Z, which is exactly what JTWC had at the time. I think we can be hard on JTWC sometimes especially in rapid change situations, but it appears that they have a good handle on this intensification phase right now. the 120 kt 12Z estimate also looks very agreeable to me.
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P
Sunday 05apr20 Time: 0626 UTC
Latitude: -15.90 Longitude: 165.49
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 5 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 954 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 108 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Fair ( +/- 12mb +/- 16kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -14.9 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.453
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.016
RMW: 14 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1006 (JTWC)
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 04 Day: 05 Time (UTC): 0600
For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P
Sunday 05apr20 Time: 0626 UTC
Latitude: -15.90 Longitude: 165.49
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 5 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 954 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 108 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Fair ( +/- 12mb +/- 16kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -14.9 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.453
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.016
RMW: 14 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1006 (JTWC)
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 04 Day: 05 Time (UTC): 0600
For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
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Dylan
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
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1900hurricane
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Re: SPAC: Harold - Tropical Cyclone
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