SPAC: HAROLD - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

Harold has the deepest and most impressive convection since Typhoon Halong...and that’s saying something. I think we could see a 150-160 kt storm once that eye clears up, if it can maintain that CDG ring.

[1900hurricane]

Lack of recent microwave imagery is making me grumpy.

[1900hurricane]

Even though the eye is pretty steady on IR, it is warming a little bit on water vapor. It sure is taking its sweet time though. I wonder if the backing NW shear is still pushing on it a little (click for WV loop).

[aspen]

Even though the eye is pretty steady on IR, it is warming a little bit on water vapor. It sure is taking its sweet time though. I wonder if the backing NW shear is still pushing on it a little (click for WV loop).

https://imgur.com/n5fgXLh

Backshear doesn’t seem to be that strong, and shouldn’t the great outflow be able to counter that in clearing the eye?

[1900hurricane]

Not necessarily if the shear layer extends to below the outflow layer, which I think is the case here. The outflow is sufficient, but the top of the vortex is still being impinged upon to some degree.

[aspen]

I think the eye is starting to warm up some more. On the floater on Tropical Tidbits, the eye is now red/red-orange instead of red and black. The CDO appears to be expanding as well.

[Kingarabian]

Well what a surprise.

[1900hurricane]

Oh, it's replacing. That explains some of it.

[aspen]

Oh, it's replacing. That explains some of it.

https://i.imgur.com/qD4NakM.jpg

Is this an eyewall meld? It’s not a complete replacement, since the eye didn’t collapse.

[aspen]

The eye does seem to be clearing more...but it’s extremely close to landfall and moving almost due east. Vanuatu is about to be hit by a Cat 4 storm regardless of how clear that eye is.

[Kingarabian]

The eye does seem to be clearing more...but it’s extremely close to landfall and moving almost due east. Vanuatu is about to be hit by a Cat 4 storm regardless of how clear that eye is.

Inland obs will be interesting

[1900hurricane]

I wouldn't say so since the outer is replacing the inner instead of melding into it. If you want to see some really seamless eyewall replacement cycles, check out imagery of Haiyan '13 and Mangkhut '18. Both managed to maintain a WMG eye while successfully replacing.

[cycloneye]

125 kts.

[TheAustinMan]

Himawari true color shot at 20:30 UTC after dawn on Vanuatu. The storm's slow movement and intensity both factor in what could be a very long day for the islands.

3.1 MB. Source: SSEC RealEarth

[aspen]

Eye temps are now warmer than -10 C. We should get positive eye temps pretty soon.

[mrbagyo]

Wind at Luganville is blowing at 26 knots gusting at 45 knots
Pressure down to 993 mb

METAR: NVSS 052200Z 04026G45KT 8000 SHRA FEW008 BKN018 FEW020CB OVC090 26/25 Q0993 RMK VIS REDUCED

[WAcyclone]

The pressure at Luganville is currently 987.2 mb according to a real-time weather station of the BOM's Tsunami monitoring network:


http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rtdd/q1c7o0hj48yu/?station_number=200857

[aspen]

Harold has made landfall on the southern tip of the island. It’ll emerge over open water again in a couple of hours.

[doomhaMwx]

It's crossing Vanuatu much earlier than what was expected.

[WAcyclone]

The pressure at Luganville is down to 961.3 mb. Hopefully the weather station survives the next few minutes...