EPAC: ONE-E - Remnants

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Some clear decoupling going on now. Starting to doubt that this'll receive a name, but it doesn't really matter at this point. The record is still broken whether it becomes a TS or not.

[TheStormExpert]

Some clear decoupling going on now. Starting to doubt that this'll receive a name, but it doesn't really matter at this point. The record is still broken whether it becomes a TS or not.

https://i.ibb.co/SckXrzP/goes16-vis-swir-01-E.gif

Looks more impressive as a TD than some of the Atlantic systems do as a hurricane!

[cycloneye]

It found the sweet spot.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1254231829613166592

[Kazmit]

Some clear decoupling going on now. Starting to doubt that this'll receive a name, but it doesn't really matter at this point. The record is still broken whether it becomes a TS or not.

https://i.ibb.co/SckXrzP/goes16-vis-swir-01-E.gif

Looks more impressive as a TD than some of the Atlantic systems do as a hurricane!

*cough* Barry *cough*

[TheStormExpert]

Some clear decoupling going on now. Starting to doubt that this'll receive a name, but it doesn't really matter at this point. The record is still broken whether it becomes a TS or not.

https://i.ibb.co/SckXrzP/goes16-vis-swir-01-E.gif

Looks more impressive as a TD than some of the Atlantic systems do as a hurricane!

*cough* Barry *cough*

Well that and Hurricane Bertha 2014 come to mind.

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
200 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020

The overall organization of the depression has changed little since
this morning. Its well-defined but exposed center is displaced
north of the active convection. Since the organization of the
cyclone is largely unchanged, the initial intensity remains 30 kt
for this advisory. This is also supported by the latest UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate.

There is no change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is
still forecast to track generally northwestward today and tonight,
and then turn westward on Sunday. Although it is not explicitly
shown in the forecast, some minimal short-term strengthening is
possible today and the system could briefly become a tropical storm.
A combination of dry air, increasing shear, and cooler SSTs should
cause the cyclone to weaken by tomorrow, and it will likely become a
remnant low within 36 hours. The remnant low could then persist for
another day or so before dissipating early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 14.5N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.1N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.6N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020

Deep convection has increased a little in association with Tropical
Depression One-E during the past several hours. However, visible
satellite images and an AMSR2 microwave pass from a few hours ago
indicate that the low-level center is displaced to the northwest of
the main area of showers and thunderstorms. The initial intensity
is held at 30 kt, following the Dvorak classification from TAFB.
This estimate is also in line with the latest satellite intensity
estimates from CIMSS ADT and SATCON. It is also worth noting that
dry air is wrapping into the circulation of the depression, which
is likely limiting its convective organization.

Although some very short-term strengthening can't be ruled out and
it is possible that the cyclone could briefly become a tropical
storm, weakening should begin on Sunday. The system will be moving
into an environment of strong westerly shear, drier air, and
progressively cooler waters. These conditions should cause the
system to become a remnant low by Sunday night, when the shear is
expected to be near 30 kt and SSTs around 24 C beneath the cyclone.
All of the models show the the depression dissipating entirely early
next week.

The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from earlier today. The
depression is currently moving northwestward on the southwest side
of a mid-level ridge, and it should continue moving in that
direction for the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the
cyclone is forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it expected to
move westward in the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates.
The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 14.8N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 15.6N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
200 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020

Earlier NRL WindSAT microwave imagery and GOES16 ProxyVIS showed the
depression's ill-defined center of circulation still displaced
well to the northwest of a small, shapeless patch of deep
convection. A 0446 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass revealed a couple
of 30 kt winds to the east of the surface center. Accordingly,
the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

Low to mid-level drier air indicated by the SHIPS intensity
guidance, and 20-25 kt of westerly shear shown in the UW-CIMSS
shear product, are certainly prohibiting convective development.
An intruding dry, stable air mass, increasing shear, and
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures should induce a
weakening trend soon and ultimately cause the cyclone to become a
remnant low by tonight. The large-scale and regional guidance
all show the depression dissipating no later than Monday night.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/7 kt.
A Low to mid-tropospheric ridge anchored north of the depression
should influence a continued northwestward motion through today.
Afterward, the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a shallow
remnant low, and move westward in the low-level easterly flow until
it dissipates. The new official forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and is primarily based on the multi-model
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 15.2N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 15.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
800 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020

Deep convection has been waning quickly in the southeastern quadrant
since the previous advisory, and the system barely met Dvorak
criteria for identifying it as a tropical cyclone at 1200 UTC. Given
that the 0446 UTC ASCAT-A overpass mentioned in the previous
discussion revealed a fairly sizable area of 28-30 kt winds in the
northeastern quadrant, there might be one or two 30-kt vectors
remaining despite the recent decline in the convective pattern, and
thus the intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/08 kt. A strong
subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is expected to
gradually turn the cyclone toward the west-northwest later today and
then westward by tonight, with a westward motion being maintained
thereafter until the system dissipates by late Monday. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus
track models

Deep-layer dry air and cooler sea-surface temperatures, combined
with strong westerly shear of 25-30 kt, should continue to erode
what little bit of convection remains, causing the system to rapidly
degenerate into a remnant low by this afternoon or evening. The low
is then expected to dissipate by Monday night. The new intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows
the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 15.7N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 16.8N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[ConvergenceZone]

Here we go! Our first East Pacific Invest in April in what will likely be a below average season.

Maybe a below average season in the west, but it suppose to be an ABOVE average season for the Atlantic/Carib etc.....

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020

The cyclone has lacked significant organized deep convection for at
least 10 hours, and the system is moving into increasingly more
stable air and over sub-25C deg C SSTs. Therefore, the depression
has been downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low. The initial
intensity is 25 kt is based on several 23-25 kt wind vectors located
n-e of the low-level center in a 1718 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. Although
the system may still produce some sporadic convection late tonight
during the convective maximum period, dry and stable air along with
strong westerly shear will likely prevent any appreciable convection
from persisting over the next day or so. This should cause the
remnant low to weaken and then open up into a trough in 36-48 hours.

The initial motion remains 305/08 kt. A substantial low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to gradually
nudge the shallow low toward the west-northwest later this
afternoon, followed by a westward motion tonight, with that motion
continuing until the system dissipates Monday night. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system. For additional information on the remnant low, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.2N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1800Z 17.1N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 17.3N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[hurricanes1234]

D'awwwww

But he was really a nice system to track. And most of all, he shattered the previous record for the earliest-forming system by a whole two weeks!

[Kingarabian]

GFS did well with this system. Right on.