ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Not looking great, but it does seem a bit more symmetrical with the spiral bands rather than everything being displaced to the east.

Very weak convection. Looks weaker than this morning. Recon would likely have a hard time finding 35kt surface winds currently.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty typical looking anemic pre-season storm to me.

[Aric Dunn]

Water Vapor and TPW showed it sucked in a good wallup of dry air this morning as well.

it is approaching the gulfstream over the next 12 hours and that being during overnight hours will increase latent heat transfer. So we should see a decent increase in convection. and then as baroclinic forcing increases there after along with forward motion. we could still easily see a upper TS landfalling in NC.

[Jr0d]

Landfall is becoming increasingly likely.

Nothing new for North Carolina, good thing this happen setup did not happen later in the year because we could be looking at a rapid intensifying hurricane.

[Jr0d]

As soon as I think landfall is becoming more likely, I start seeing Arthut wobble east.

It makes me wonder if the SpaceX fleet can get to the landing zone in time. The booster will land around 3 am Tuesday morning if the launch is a go. They are currenty hunkered down in Moorehead/Atlantic City, NC.

My DR quick calculations say they need to lo leave port by mid day tomorrrow to get OCISLY to the landing zone.

[wxman57]

Looks quite pathetic this evening. Weaker since this morning. Don't know that recon will find any convincing (key word) evidence of 35+ kt wind. Hardly any convection. May not matter if it makes landfall, no one would notice in its current state.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

As soon as I think landfall is becoming more likely, I start seeing Arthut wobble east.

It makes me wonder if the SpaceX fleet can get to the landing zone in time. The booster will land around 3 am Tuesday morning if the launch is a go. They are currenty hunkered down in Moorehead/Atlantic City, NC.

My DR quick calculations say they need to lo leave port by mid day tomorrrow to get OCISLY to the landing zone.

You were right, launch has been called off until after DM-2.

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/sta ... 3407085568

[TheStormExpert]

Looks quite pathetic this evening. Weaker since this morning. Don't know that recon will find any convincing (key word) evidence of 35+ kt wind. Hardly any convection. May not matter if it makes landfall, no one would notice in its current state.

Arthur was never a photogenic Tropical Storm. Just turned on TWC to see Jeff Morrow and realized how wimpy Arthur looks this evening, even the pressure is up two millibars.

[Ken711]

Landfall is becoming increasingly likely.

Nothing new for North Carolina, good thing this happen setup did not happen later in the year because we could be looking at a rapid intensifying hurricane.

It may be close, but I wouldn't say increasingly likely.

[Jr0d]

Landfall is becoming increasingly likely.

Nothing new for North Carolina, good thing this happen setup did not happen later in the year because we could be looking at a rapid intensifying hurricane.

It may be close, but I wouldn't say increasingly likely.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_01_ens.gif

See my next post....looking less certain now.

No official word from SpaceX yet about Tuesday's launch. The fairing catchers are going home for sure. They could launch and expend the booster that will have flown 4 times so there is no conflict with the droneship OCISLY and the crew Demo-2 launch coming up.

[gatorcane]

Lots of dry, continental air being pulled into it, as seen by the darker shading in the water vapor image below:

[Jr0d]

Almost a naked swirl. A few small storms are starting to pop near the center. Barely a storm right now. Looking doubtful for further strengthening.

[TheStormExpert]

NEXT!! Maybe Bertha will actually look good for once this year, yeah I'm talking to you Hurricane Bertha from 2014!

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1262128922340110338

[Jr0d]

NEXT!! Maybe Bertha will actually look good for once this year, yeah I'm talking to you Hurricane Bertha from 2014!

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1262128922340110338

Bertha of 1996 was an intense one.

[AnnularCane]

NEXT!! Maybe Bertha will actually look good for once this year, yeah I'm talking to you Hurricane Bertha from 2014!

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1262128922340110338

Bertha of 1996 was an intense one.

And 2008. And they were both beauties.

[ROCK]

Typical premi TS sucking in dry air attm. I am just waiting for the majors. Late night Euro reporting is fantastic Arthur is just a warm up.

[Ubuntwo]

Big improvement overnight from a pile of bones.

[NDG]

Recon finds pressure of 1001 mb, a little bit strengthening as it is tracking over the gulf stream.

113530 3424N 07605W 8432 01490 0006 +177 +128 322011 012 016 001 00

[wxman57]

Those two 36kt SFMR winds from the SE are below FL winds of 13 and 17 kts. Highly suspicious. Billy Mitchell airport (KHSE), located just north of the center now is reporting SE wind at 13 ks. Peak sustained wind past 6 hours is 18 kts.

[NDG]

Those two 36kt SFMR winds from the SE are below FL winds of 13 and 17 kts. Highly suspicious.

Buoy just off the coast of Cape Hatteras is confirming TS force winds but in gusts only, barely.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41025