ATL: ARTHUR - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[Aric Dunn]

Well at least now the models have a good starting point

[cycloneye]

Well at least now the models have a good starting point

And that begins at 18z runs but mostly on 00z that has more data.

[USTropics]

As others have stated, since there are quite a few mesoscale features and processes currently occurring, mesoscale models (NAM, RGEM, HR, etc.) offer a "clearer" picture of what is going on in terms of genesis (which affects short term track). Global models (like the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, etc.) have a difficult time (due to their spatial resolutions) of "seeing" these meso features, so it can be difficult for them to accurately forecast area of genesis (although the large scale steering features are more accurately depicted). Having an initialization point (with 90L now being designated), will certainly help, but I would definitely recommend expanding the bag of model tools for forecasting this system.

[Aric Dunn]

As others have stated, since there are quite a few mesoscale features and processes currently occurring, mesoscale models (NAM, RGEM, HR, etc.) offer a "clearer" picture of what is going on. Global models (like the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, etc.) have a difficult time (due to their spatial resolutions) of "seeing" these meso features, so it can be difficult for them to accurately forecast area of genesis. Having an initialization point (with 90L now being designated), will certainly help, but I would definitely recommend expanding the bag of model tools for forecasting this system.

Oh definitely.. RGEM has been doing quite well with it. HRR was up until about the 10z run for some reason. WRF-NNM has been handling it well too.

[TheStormExpert]

It wouldn’t be hurricane season without the NAM blowing every storm it sees up into a formidable hurricane.

 https://twitter.com/alexlubbers2/status/1261038632812417024

[Aric Dunn]

key thing to take out of the NAM is how much weaker that short wave is.. .. it is barely even there on this run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1418&fh=78

toggle between 12z and 18z..

pretty interesting change in the synoptics.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro initializes a surface circ just inland or on the coast. which given the current data does seem to be possible.

[aspen]

It wouldn’t be hurricane season without the NAM blowing every storm it sees up into a formidable hurricane.

https://twitter.com/alexlubbers2/status/1261038632812417024

So how badly did it overestimate Barry?

[TheStormExpert]

It wouldn’t be hurricane season without the NAM blowing every storm it sees up into a formidable hurricane.

https://twitter.com/alexlubbers2/status/1261038632812417024

So how badly did it overestimate Barry?

Wasn’t it forecasting Barry last year to be a Cat.3?

[HurricaneEnzo]

It wouldn’t be hurricane season without the NAM blowing every storm it sees up into a formidable hurricane.

https://twitter.com/alexlubbers2/status/1261038632812417024

Gotta love gettin NAM'D

[cycloneye]

[floridasun78]

https://i.imgur.com/qEO4GDE.jpg

look like weak low will kiss miami as move ne toward bahamas

[cycloneye]

00z GFS is weaker than past runs.

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF.

[NDG]

3 km NAM continues with its crazy idea of turning 90L into a hurricane

[Aric Dunn]

This is a particular interesting 15z run of a version of the HRR mesoscale.

it lines up well with the current convective pattern and momentum of the vorticities.. I think the south florida people will like this..

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS has shifted west quite a bit and aligns well with loop I posted above now.

in the long term. gfs looks like a SC to NC landfall

[chaser1]

3 km NAM continues with its crazy idea of turning 90L into a hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/epHXOwN.png

What would be crazier, this developing into a hurricane or NAM accurately out-forcasting all other models. I'd say "both" but NAM Tropical Wizardry???

[cycloneye]

Umm,a little more higher in intensity from the bams with HWRF the highest.