ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

Possibly 2 TS before the official start of the season. Got a bad feeling the next 4 months might be beyond active jmo

Watch the EC crossover in the next few days into he BOC!!

[Ubuntwo]

The 0z euro (almost) bullseyes Charleston

[drezee]

Closest observation: https://www.vesseltracker.com/en/Ships/ ... 93264.html

[Siker]

This looks pretty organized. Would be surprised if there isn’t a solid circulation under the mid-level center now, though I still see some odd low-level flow to the west (possibly because the new center is so tiny). Think it meets TC criteria, though question is whether they’ll classify it given it will be inland in 6 hours.

[drezee]

Post season upgrade, but SC is about to get hit by a TS...IMO. Buoys should confirm at landfall. Euro is spot on. Frictional effects are tightening the center. Get onshore, if she had 12 more hours offshore...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-48

Get your rest NHC, it may be a long season.

[xironman]

41004 up to 27 knots, see if it gets to 34 before landfall

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41004

[drezee]

Close up visible loop:

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... mframes=25

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1265581165588725760

[xironman]

41004 now gusting to almost 40kt, that and core that is showing on radar makes me call TS

[Aric Dunn]

I guess it will be a post season unnamed system.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1265605050807664641

[Aric Dunn]

they up it to 70% and then say "later today" like what 30 minutes from now ? lol

I was about to say the same thing! Lol

By every scientific observation, we already have a Tropical Storm

correct. there is a slight chance of a small eddy within the larger circ. but that does not mean it is not well defined and not closed.

sooo many systems have been upgraded with two vorts rotating around a mean center.

there is absolutely no reason for this not to be bertha. should have been once it reached radar rage several hours ago and bouy obs showed it.

[Aric Dunn]

10 second gust to 50kts at the bouy now..

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1265607947956043777

[northjaxpro]

The cyclone looks very good currently. It is a very compact, small system. But, it is about to give the SC coast a pretty good smacking. As you all have already pointed out, I don't know why NHC has not officially declared this Bertha now.

Well, even if it isn't declared now, I am certain it will be post-analysis.

[StruThiO]

This is a tropical storm.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 02, 2020052706, , BEST, 0, 315N, 796W, 40, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002, TRANSITIONED, alA12020 to al022020,

[cycloneye]

Bertha is born!

[northjaxpro]

AL, 02, 2020052706, , BEST, 0, 315N, 796W, 40, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002, TRANSITIONED, alA12020 to al022020,

I was about to post this but you beat me to it Nancy.

WE finally have Bertha!!

[Nancy Smar]

BERTHA, AL, L, , , , , 02, 2020, TS, O, 2020052518, 9999999999, , 002, , , 1, METWATCH, , AL022020