I agree with the write-up Frank. The only real botches were surge and maybe location as it came in east a little of forecasts but I think ended up about the right place. We are getting some of our stronger winds now as the gulf feed lines are moving up toward us. Everything is out of the SW. For New Orleans, I feel like we got what you’d expect out of what it was. We could have had more rain and we certainly would have had a ton more wind if they were closer to the center rather than being spread out. Overall, I feel like Cristobal exceeded apparent potential with people in pretty far off areas getting smacked in the ways they were - Venice, Central Florida, Big Bend, Jacksonville, parts of the Panhandle and the MS/AL and probably LA coasts. Plus holding together to the Great Lakes counts for something if it can do it. Cool and fun system to spend a couple days out on the porch, but I was left wanting a little bit more out of it personally. Long season to go with possible similar situation/repeat in 2 weeks. Maybe that’s more of a SFL threat but it still has to evolve.
Also I think I just saw 4 roseate spoonbills flying by. I’ve only ever once seen those on the swamp highway from Hackberry to Cameron. It was glarey but you could see pink on them and their bills are a giveaway. 95% sure.
ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Yeah Steve I agree, side note: I got my tropical cyclone fix for the summer... always love seeing that surge come up the beach, and any more winds and we might have lost electricity and a few Oak limbs... so I’m good for the rest of the season... send all the rest to those who want it... me I hope I’m done! Take care old pa!
2 likes
-
northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Steve wrote:I agree with the write-up Frank. The only real botches were surge and maybe location as it came in east a little of forecasts but I think ended up about the right place. We are getting some of our stronger winds now as the gulf feed lines are moving up toward us. Everything is out of the SW. For New Orleans, I feel like we got what you’d expect out of what it was. We could have had more rain and we certainly would have had a ton more wind if they were closer to the center rather than being spread out. Overall, I feel like Cristobal exceeded apparent potential with people in pretty far off areas getting smacked in the ways they were - Venice, Central Florida, Big Bend, Jacksonville, parts of the Panhandle and the MS/AL and probably LA coasts. Plus holding together to the Great Lakes counts for something if it can do it. Cool and fun system to spend a couple days out on the porch, but I was left wanting a little bit more out of it personally. Long season to go with possible similar situation/repeat in 2 weeks. Maybe that’s more of a SFL threat but it still has to evolve.
Also I think I just saw 4 roseate spoonbills flying by. I’ve only ever once seen those on the swamp highway from Hackberry to Cameron. It was glarey but you could see pink on them and their bills are a giveaway. 95% sure.
Yes, indeed, Steve I ended up with a final tally of just under 7.25 inches of rainfall attibuted to the far reaching effects from Cristobal's very lopsided structure. I discussed this farther in length in the Florida Weather Thread.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Hard to say what we got here. I figured out of the two days, we probably got somewhere in the neighborhood of 17 or 18 hours of rain which you'd think was copious. But in reality, we probably got 2.5". I wouldn't be surprised if we equaled that today depending on how long those training feeder bands stay around. Could be anywhere from .5-3".
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
We are getting worse weather today than we had yesterday, such a weird system.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Tomorrow could be interesting for the great lakes region tomorrow, they could see low end TS type conditions there as a still warm core Christobal begins to phase with an upper level trough, and starts extratropical transition. Here is the disco from NWS in Chicago:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
338 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT
Through Tuesday Night...
Plenty of unpack with the forecast through the next 48 hours. The
main forecast messages remain with some ability to provide more
specificity, although a couple aspects remain modestly uncertain
for this close in timing owing to subtle differences in system
track and evolution. The messages are:
- Tuesday mid-afternoon through mid-evening (~3-11 p.m.) likely
being the main window of impact for our area
- Strong winds with regular gusts of 35-45 mph, potential for
sporadic 50+ mph during this time, while Wednesday`s winds look
less impacting than they had
- Scattered severe storm threat, even some of the activity not
having much or any lightning
- Period of tropical-like rainfall rates overlapping the late day
commute
Today finds the area under a stout upper level ridge, with
suppression aloft likely being enhanced around the outer
periphery of now Tropical Depression Cristobal which is near the
Arkansas/Mississippi border slowly moving north. Temperatures of
89 to 94 over dew points around 50 will be prevalent through 5
p.m. before gradual cooling. The outer spiraling cirrus edge of
Cristobal will spread northward over the area this evening and
then thicken overnight with lows of 65-70.
Guidance has gradually honed more in on the solution track of the
remnant mid-level to surface circulation of Cristobal, taking it
northward right over the Mississippi River. This is forecast by
the National Hurricane Center to be centered just north of the
Quad Cities by late day Tuesday. As a continued warm core system
it should be retaining primarily tropical-like characteristics,
though some mid-latitude / extratropical evolution may be starting
and likely will more rapidly Tuesday night as the system tracks
north of the area. The strongest 925 mb winds of near 50 kt over
the area are forecast to be mid-late afternoon through mid-
evening, and this is coincident with the near-record high absolute
moisture values (PWATS of 2.25 inches) and the developing
negative tilt of the mid-level circulation. A probable key to both
wind magnitude and severe potential is if any destabilization can
be achieved in that lowest km or two of the troposphere to result
in momentum transfer of stronger winds and for parcels in an
vorticity-rich low-level environment to achieve LFC heights.
.Tuesday Synoptic Winds...
Confidence remains high on a period of strong southeast to south
winds Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, but lower on the peak
wind gust magnitudes and how prevalent these will be. For this
reason, opted to hold off on any wind headlines and allow the
evening and midnight shifts to take another look at the latest
guidance trends.
As the center of TD Cristobal lifts northward near the Mississippi
River on Tuesday afternoon, a corridor of stout pressure falls
will overspread the region as the system`s strong low level wind
fields arrive. Even at about 24 hours out, there are non trivial
differences in the model guidance with respect to the exact track
and strength of Cristobal. In addition, there is uncertainty on
mixing depths as the peak low level jet magnitude arrives Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. This is because the low level
wind core will be in tandem with the rain bands, which will lower
mixing depths. ECMWF and UKMET are most concerning from a wind
perspective, as they still deepen the low to sub 990 mb at our
latitude, with GFS not quite as deep, but forecast soundings still
suggesting 40+ kt speeds not too far above 1000 ft AGL could be
mixed down. NAM had weakest and farthest east solution of the 12z
cycle. It could be an outlier, but not confident enough to
completely discount that idea.
Think that we`re likely headed for needing a Wind Advisory for a
portion of the area, most likely the southeast 1/2 or 2/3 of the
CWA given NHC consensus low pressure track. With such strong winds
off the deck, even if diminishing mixing heights render 45+ mph
gusts somewhat less frequent, even aside from deeper convection,
showers may be able to tap into the stronger winds aloft. Given
the lingering uncertainty on exact timing, duration and areas
impacted, opted to hold off on a Wind Advisory issuance with this
forecast package in collaboration with neighboring offices. As
mentioned above, wind direction with strongest winds will start
out southeasterly and then shift to south and then south-southwest,
with speeds then gradually easing by midnight or so as direction
becomes more southwesterly. Will message gusts up to 40-45 mph,
with gusts of 50+ mph still possible, especially in heavier showers.
.Tuesday Severe Potential...
The pattern in the mid-level heights, low-level wind field,
surface winds, and just being in the right front quadrant of an
inland tropical system are concerning for rotating storms.
However, instability may be nearly nil if the rain shield is large
and steady enough during the afternoon into early evening. Any
arc-like structures or more scattered activity that develops will
be more susceptible to subtle heating and destabilizing to
support tapping into the strong wind field and providing some
depth to rotating updrafts for isolated severe wind and tornado
potential. The trend is slightly later in this timing, more later
afternoon into mid evening, which is when low-level instability
from central Illinois is likely to advect northward into at least
the southern forecast area and possibly all the way up to Chicago.
Lightning is likely to be limited especially with any activity
within the main rain area. In terms of convective wind potential,
given 50 kt flow at 2000 ft and very limited inversion, any
deeper storms would be able to maximize that and could produce
isolated damaging winds. For tornado potential, some if not
numerous rotating updrafts are likely late day into Tuesday
evening just south or into the CWA, again depending on if
activity can get into more of a mode or arcs/scattered to harness
some destabilization. The potential is there for tornadoes to be
of a short-lived nature given the shear highly outweighing the
instability, and just a rich moist environment too. It`s not
impossible some more true supercell structures could develop in
east central IL and graze into the far southeast forecast area
given trajectories of deeper instability, especially early Tuesday
evening (7-10 p.m.).
.Tuesday Heavy Rain Potential...
The longer duration heavier rainfall with Crisotbal`s remnants
observationally upstream and into Tuesday model solutions looks
to be near and just west of the center of circulation. This has
some buffer before overlapping north central Illinois, so that`s a
good sign. Given the absolute moisture values though, periodic
heavy rainfall rates within a 3-6 hour window sometime within mid-
afternoon through mid-evening are likely. This would overlap the
commute time and given tropical-like rain, this could sharply
reduce visibility and lead to localized flooding and temporary
hydroplaning concerns. But this threat does look much more
localized especially compared to a couple of the more widespread
May events. Total forecast rainfall through Tuesday night is
likely to exceed one inch in places, most favored along/north of
I-88. We are not expecting rises in rivers to be significant at
this time.
.Beach Hazards and Lakeshore Flooding...
For northeast Illinois, a period of stronger mainly onshore winds
(southeast direction) will be seen later Tuesday morning into the
evening. This will be enough to support dangerous swimming
conditions and could result in low end lakeshore flooding. This
does not look to be a significant lakeshore flooding event.
MTF/RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CDT
Wednesday through Monday...
Forecast guidance has decent spread on Wednesday, not that much of
a surprise given phasing of a mid-latitude trough and incoming
tropical remnants. The trend today was for a slower true phase of
this and thus a longer break in the stronger winds, and the second
maximum being less in wind speed and duration.
The mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the area during
midday into afternoon Wednesday, acquiring a slight negative tilt
as it does. There are variances in speed and degrees of drying and
suppression behind Cristobal`s remnants, but in general guidance
does show some break in shower/convective coverage later Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and possibly a
few storms would be favored to develop immediately ahead of the
trough`s center. The 12Z NAM even supported some severe threat in
northwest Indiana and especially just east of the area, but that
was somewhat of an outlier solution with its further west
indication of that occurring. Rainfall with Wednedsay`s activity
could be an additional half inch plus in some places, again
northern Illinois north of I-80 most favored.
For Wednesday winds, the tightest pressure gradient envelops the
area later Wednesday into Wednesday night in guidance, not ideal
for overlapping the diurnal maximum. Also the phased low center,
while near an impressive four standard deviations from normal for
June in this region (983 mb), is located by that time well north
of the Great Lakes. The cold advection and unidirectional wind
profile may support some gusts over 40 mph, and its still within
the window of possibilities that this period needs a short lived
Advisory if the phasing shifts a little earlier/south than
current solutions support.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
338 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT
Through Tuesday Night...
Plenty of unpack with the forecast through the next 48 hours. The
main forecast messages remain with some ability to provide more
specificity, although a couple aspects remain modestly uncertain
for this close in timing owing to subtle differences in system
track and evolution. The messages are:
- Tuesday mid-afternoon through mid-evening (~3-11 p.m.) likely
being the main window of impact for our area
- Strong winds with regular gusts of 35-45 mph, potential for
sporadic 50+ mph during this time, while Wednesday`s winds look
less impacting than they had
- Scattered severe storm threat, even some of the activity not
having much or any lightning
- Period of tropical-like rainfall rates overlapping the late day
commute
Today finds the area under a stout upper level ridge, with
suppression aloft likely being enhanced around the outer
periphery of now Tropical Depression Cristobal which is near the
Arkansas/Mississippi border slowly moving north. Temperatures of
89 to 94 over dew points around 50 will be prevalent through 5
p.m. before gradual cooling. The outer spiraling cirrus edge of
Cristobal will spread northward over the area this evening and
then thicken overnight with lows of 65-70.
Guidance has gradually honed more in on the solution track of the
remnant mid-level to surface circulation of Cristobal, taking it
northward right over the Mississippi River. This is forecast by
the National Hurricane Center to be centered just north of the
Quad Cities by late day Tuesday. As a continued warm core system
it should be retaining primarily tropical-like characteristics,
though some mid-latitude / extratropical evolution may be starting
and likely will more rapidly Tuesday night as the system tracks
north of the area. The strongest 925 mb winds of near 50 kt over
the area are forecast to be mid-late afternoon through mid-
evening, and this is coincident with the near-record high absolute
moisture values (PWATS of 2.25 inches) and the developing
negative tilt of the mid-level circulation. A probable key to both
wind magnitude and severe potential is if any destabilization can
be achieved in that lowest km or two of the troposphere to result
in momentum transfer of stronger winds and for parcels in an
vorticity-rich low-level environment to achieve LFC heights.
.Tuesday Synoptic Winds...
Confidence remains high on a period of strong southeast to south
winds Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, but lower on the peak
wind gust magnitudes and how prevalent these will be. For this
reason, opted to hold off on any wind headlines and allow the
evening and midnight shifts to take another look at the latest
guidance trends.
As the center of TD Cristobal lifts northward near the Mississippi
River on Tuesday afternoon, a corridor of stout pressure falls
will overspread the region as the system`s strong low level wind
fields arrive. Even at about 24 hours out, there are non trivial
differences in the model guidance with respect to the exact track
and strength of Cristobal. In addition, there is uncertainty on
mixing depths as the peak low level jet magnitude arrives Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. This is because the low level
wind core will be in tandem with the rain bands, which will lower
mixing depths. ECMWF and UKMET are most concerning from a wind
perspective, as they still deepen the low to sub 990 mb at our
latitude, with GFS not quite as deep, but forecast soundings still
suggesting 40+ kt speeds not too far above 1000 ft AGL could be
mixed down. NAM had weakest and farthest east solution of the 12z
cycle. It could be an outlier, but not confident enough to
completely discount that idea.
Think that we`re likely headed for needing a Wind Advisory for a
portion of the area, most likely the southeast 1/2 or 2/3 of the
CWA given NHC consensus low pressure track. With such strong winds
off the deck, even if diminishing mixing heights render 45+ mph
gusts somewhat less frequent, even aside from deeper convection,
showers may be able to tap into the stronger winds aloft. Given
the lingering uncertainty on exact timing, duration and areas
impacted, opted to hold off on a Wind Advisory issuance with this
forecast package in collaboration with neighboring offices. As
mentioned above, wind direction with strongest winds will start
out southeasterly and then shift to south and then south-southwest,
with speeds then gradually easing by midnight or so as direction
becomes more southwesterly. Will message gusts up to 40-45 mph,
with gusts of 50+ mph still possible, especially in heavier showers.
.Tuesday Severe Potential...
The pattern in the mid-level heights, low-level wind field,
surface winds, and just being in the right front quadrant of an
inland tropical system are concerning for rotating storms.
However, instability may be nearly nil if the rain shield is large
and steady enough during the afternoon into early evening. Any
arc-like structures or more scattered activity that develops will
be more susceptible to subtle heating and destabilizing to
support tapping into the strong wind field and providing some
depth to rotating updrafts for isolated severe wind and tornado
potential. The trend is slightly later in this timing, more later
afternoon into mid evening, which is when low-level instability
from central Illinois is likely to advect northward into at least
the southern forecast area and possibly all the way up to Chicago.
Lightning is likely to be limited especially with any activity
within the main rain area. In terms of convective wind potential,
given 50 kt flow at 2000 ft and very limited inversion, any
deeper storms would be able to maximize that and could produce
isolated damaging winds. For tornado potential, some if not
numerous rotating updrafts are likely late day into Tuesday
evening just south or into the CWA, again depending on if
activity can get into more of a mode or arcs/scattered to harness
some destabilization. The potential is there for tornadoes to be
of a short-lived nature given the shear highly outweighing the
instability, and just a rich moist environment too. It`s not
impossible some more true supercell structures could develop in
east central IL and graze into the far southeast forecast area
given trajectories of deeper instability, especially early Tuesday
evening (7-10 p.m.).
.Tuesday Heavy Rain Potential...
The longer duration heavier rainfall with Crisotbal`s remnants
observationally upstream and into Tuesday model solutions looks
to be near and just west of the center of circulation. This has
some buffer before overlapping north central Illinois, so that`s a
good sign. Given the absolute moisture values though, periodic
heavy rainfall rates within a 3-6 hour window sometime within mid-
afternoon through mid-evening are likely. This would overlap the
commute time and given tropical-like rain, this could sharply
reduce visibility and lead to localized flooding and temporary
hydroplaning concerns. But this threat does look much more
localized especially compared to a couple of the more widespread
May events. Total forecast rainfall through Tuesday night is
likely to exceed one inch in places, most favored along/north of
I-88. We are not expecting rises in rivers to be significant at
this time.
.Beach Hazards and Lakeshore Flooding...
For northeast Illinois, a period of stronger mainly onshore winds
(southeast direction) will be seen later Tuesday morning into the
evening. This will be enough to support dangerous swimming
conditions and could result in low end lakeshore flooding. This
does not look to be a significant lakeshore flooding event.
MTF/RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CDT
Wednesday through Monday...
Forecast guidance has decent spread on Wednesday, not that much of
a surprise given phasing of a mid-latitude trough and incoming
tropical remnants. The trend today was for a slower true phase of
this and thus a longer break in the stronger winds, and the second
maximum being less in wind speed and duration.
The mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the area during
midday into afternoon Wednesday, acquiring a slight negative tilt
as it does. There are variances in speed and degrees of drying and
suppression behind Cristobal`s remnants, but in general guidance
does show some break in shower/convective coverage later Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and possibly a
few storms would be favored to develop immediately ahead of the
trough`s center. The 12Z NAM even supported some severe threat in
northwest Indiana and especially just east of the area, but that
was somewhat of an outlier solution with its further west
indication of that occurring. Rainfall with Wednedsay`s activity
could be an additional half inch plus in some places, again
northern Illinois north of I-80 most favored.
For Wednesday winds, the tightest pressure gradient envelops the
area later Wednesday into Wednesday night in guidance, not ideal
for overlapping the diurnal maximum. Also the phased low center,
while near an impressive four standard deviations from normal for
June in this region (983 mb), is located by that time well north
of the Great Lakes. The cold advection and unidirectional wind
profile may support some gusts over 40 mph, and its still within
the window of possibilities that this period needs a short lived
Advisory if the phasing shifts a little earlier/south than
current solutions support.
0 likes
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
All but the low clouds are mostly gone here finally. Still SW flow into the system but not in the bands. Good outflow all around the system as per final visibles, and we will see if he can’t make one more overnight run to improve late. Some of the clouds are cooling but more in the arms and bands but not near the circulation yet. Just something to watch as it moves north through Arkansas and Missouri.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020
0 likes
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Looks like it’s juicing up for the evening
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020
7 is IR
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020
7 is IR
1 likes
-
TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I’ve lost track of the number of tropical systems that have looked better or even more tropical in this case over land than over water. 
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
SootyTern
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 310
- Age: 55
- Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:09 pm
- Location: NYC (formerly Homestead, FL)
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Steve wrote:I agree with the write-up Frank....
Also I think I just saw 4 roseate spoonbills flying by. I’ve only ever once seen those on the swamp highway from Hackberry to Cameron. It was glarey but you could see pink on them and their bills are a giveaway. 95% sure.
Steve. I don't post much but I'm here every year for the ride and I have been enjoying your and Frank P's posts for probably almost 20 years now; I remember y'all posting on another board waaaaay back when. I'm a bird geek in my regular life and I bet you did see roseate spoonbills between Hackberry and Cameron. I saw my first spoonbills there driving that same road in late July 1992. Ahead of Andrew by a few weeks. Was back in Cameron Parish to study birds for LSU in time for the March 1993 Superstorm
3 likes
Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Gulf Coast: Opal '95 Georges '98 / So Fla: Katrina '05 Wilma '05 Irma '17
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Gulf Coast: Opal '95 Georges '98 / So Fla: Katrina '05 Wilma '05 Irma '17
-
AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2634
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Steve wrote:Looks like it’s juicing up for the evening
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020
7 is IR
I love those nighttime satellite pics that show the city lights.
1 likes
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
SootyTern wrote:Steve wrote:I agree with the write-up Frank....
Also I think I just saw 4 roseate spoonbills flying by. I’ve only ever once seen those on the swamp highway from Hackberry to Cameron. It was glarey but you could see pink on them and their bills are a giveaway. 95% sure.
Steve. I don't post much but I'm here every year for the ride and I have been enjoying your and Frank P's posts for probably almost 20 years now; I remember y'all posting on another board waaaaay back when. I'm a bird geek in my regular life and I bet you did see roseate spoonbills between Hackberry and Cameron. I saw my first spoonbills there driving that same road in late July 1992. Ahead of Andrew by a few weeks. Was back in Cameron Parish to study birds for LSU in time for the March 1993 Superstorm
What happened is I told my friend I saw Flamingos and get scoffed at. He said you had to put something in their diet to get them pink. And I was like wt*? How many pink birds could there be? And voila it was spoonbills. So this morning I’m pretty sure those were cruising by, 4 of them. It was against a glare-y sky so I only saw some color. Outside chance it could have been something with a red stripe on the outer wings but they looked pink to me as best as I could tell. It was weird too because I spent so much time on the porch Saturday and Sunday that I saw maybe 9 or 10 mini flocks of waterfowl. Some were ducks and geese that probably live at city park but there were a few groups I couldn’t identify. Always good to hear from you sooty
2 likes
-
Do_For_Love
- Category 1
- Posts: 271
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat May 09, 2015 7:47 am
- Location: Delaware
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I've been hearing that apparently Cristobal would be the first semi-tropical system to track across the length of Wisconsin if the projected track verifies. All the other storms that have reached this far north have done a recurve. Does anyone have meteorological insight into why this is happening? Just curious.
1 likes
Irene '11, Sandy '12, Fay '20, Isaias '20, Ida '21
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Do_For_Love wrote:I've been hearing that apparently Cristobal would be the first semi-tropical system to track across the length of Wisconsin if the projected track verifies. All the other storms that have reached this far north have done a recurve. Does anyone have meteorological insight into why this is happening? Just curious.
Pattern setup and it being early June. The trough will catch it probably in northern Wisconsin or Minnesota, but it was able to move pretty steadily due north almost the whole way up.
2 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139081
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
The final advisory was made at 11 PM EDT or 10 PM CDT.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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SconnieCane
- Category 4
- Posts: 913
- Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Well, for the closest approach of an actual warm-core weather system I will likely ever experience unless I take up chasing hurricanes (doubtful) and setting a June record low pressure for Madison of 988 MB (which might have gotten it hurricane status had it occurred over the Gulf); Cristobal produced decidedly unmemorable weather IMBY. Just a showery, breezy afternoon. The big rains went west, the strongest winds and severe weather (what relatively little there was) missed east.
3 likes
-
Shell Mound
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
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- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories
https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/1270001362433183746
Christobal caused ‘substantial’ damage to LA levee, raising concerns
Edit: Should be moved to discussion.
Christobal caused ‘substantial’ damage to LA levee, raising concerns
Edit: Should be moved to discussion.
0 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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floridasun78
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories
he was weatherman here in miami few year back DavidBernardTV
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
SconnieCane wrote:Well, for the closest approach of an actual warm-core weather system I will likely ever experience unless I take up chasing hurricanes (doubtful) and setting a June record low pressure for Madison of 988 MB (which might have gotten it hurricane status had it occurred over the Gulf); Cristobal produced decidedly unmemorable weather IMBY. Just a showery, breezy afternoon. The big rains went west, the strongest winds and severe weather (what relatively little there was) missed east.
Ooh, are you in Madison/Madison area? I live about an hour south of there, on the stateline, just north of Rockford. I'm not sure what our lowest pressure was, but the lowest I saw in my location was 991.5mb. We never got torrential rain, but we got some pretty decent showers and it was windy all afternoon/evening with some pretty strong gusts. There was a ton of leaves/tree debris all over the yard, I'd say the most we've had since a supercell thunderstorm and its associated mesocyclone came through my area in May 2017. That storm produced much stronger winds though, 90-95mph gusts, just obviously a much shorter duration.
The pool was absolutely filthy today though, covered in leaves. Needed a good cleaning. Thanks Cristobal!
I agree with you though, it wasn't very memorable. There are plenty of winter storms that come through with a lot more ruckus. Really the only inconvenience Cristobal had was enough rain and wind to prevent me from grilling, and all the tree debris that had to be cleaned out of the pool.
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