ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Land friction is definitely helping some with convection.. could end up bringing down some of those higher winds.

landfall 30 min or less.

That internal eddy is close. Overall circulation I can see to the east as filtered sunlight. Hoping for some backside of the system if it works out.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Is the forecast NNW turn even going to happen at this point?

The ridge is building to the north of the storm, so it should happen regardless of this short-term NNE motion. It is 2020 though, so who knows?

[MGC]

Getting real windy now. Just heard a transformer explode off in the distance....MGC

[Stormcenter]

Safe to say Cristobal has not behaved track wise.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 995mb in parts of New Orleans, with an E wind at their Naval Station, they are already in part of the CoC
SW pass at mouth of MS river is still reporting SE winds, their pressure down to 992mb.

[MGC]

Looks to me that Cristobal is going to pass to the east of New Orleans. Similar track to Katrina?.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

just moments away from landfall.. ... weeeeeeeeee lol

[NDG]

You can easily see the surface trough it will be following. If that eddy rotating around would had been the true CoC winds by the mouth of the river would had been at least from the east if not the NE.

[NDG]

SE winds at the SW pass of the MS river at 20z, that wind should had been out of the NE if that swirl would had been the true CoC.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pstl1

[wx98]

I’m not sure what all this excitement about the storm going toward East NOLA/Slidell is. Still looks on track to come in around Grand Isle and track west of New Orleans.

[wx98]

Pressure ticked down a bit

4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 7
Location: 29.1°N 89.9°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[ronjon]

Highest land based wind at Gulfport.

GULFPORT RAIN 78 75 90 E29G47 29.50F FOG

[Steve]

You can easily see the surface trough it will be following. If that eddy rotating around would had been the true CoC winds by the mouth of the river would had been at least from the east if not the NE.

https://i.imgur.com/V7AS8wa.gif

Yeah we are almost in the NW side of the circulation. Definitely a more eastern landfall for the inner circulation and the core. UKMET yesterday 12z had an eastern side track. Steadily raining here but without much wind. It’s been raining for the better part of the last 12-13 hours but slow and steady. Chill party storm.

[slamdaddy]

3.45" rain since midnight...current pressure 1000.2...gust 30mph...Jackson County, MS (Gautier). Trent Lott International Airport (Moss Pt/Pascagoula) reported gust 35mph lil bit ago

[Javlin]

Another Gulfport station

So Far Today
High (Normal) 81°F (87°F)
Low (Normal) 73°F (72.7°F)
Max Winds 28 mph
Wind Gust 47 mph
Precip 4.36

[NDG]

Pressure ticked down a bit

4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 7
Location: 29.1°N 89.9°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

I rest my case with the official latest fix

[Stormcenter]

Still is not moving much. IMO

[NDG]

Interesting discussion about the Swirl over the mouth of MS river becoming the dominan CoC after it moves inland.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

At least two low-level vortices have been noted rotating
cyclonically within the broad inner-core circulation, with one swirl
located southeast of the advisory position approaching the
Mississippi Delta and the other swirl located inland to the
northwest of Grand Isle, Louisiana. The larger swirl in the
southeastern quadrant will likely become the dominant low-level
circulation center later tonight after that feature moves inland
and frictional convergence tightens up the broad inner-core wind
field a little bit. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on
data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler radar velocity data
from Slidell and Mobile, along with a satellite intensity estimate
of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.

[Steve]

Pressure ticked down a bit

4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 7
Location: 29.1°N 89.9°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

I rest my case with the official latest fix

https://i.imgur.com/X2T6PlS.gif

Nice. But it’s a large overall circulation. Seems I’m still getting east winds on the porch.

[FixySLN]

Ocean Springs, MS checking in. Winds much stronger than I had expected, initially. STRONG gusts. Rainfall is fairly insane. A lot of flooding down here on the coast. Power flickering, trampolines flyings, pool covers turning into Flying Saucers. Initiating Garage/Cooler Plan Bravo. Will continue to update.