NIO: INVEST 94B

[Nancy Smar]

94B INVEST 200610 1200 16.6N 88.5E IO 15 1010

ABIO10 PGTW 101300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/101300Z-101800ZJUN2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.6N 88.5E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC. A 100315Z ASCAT-A IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS. 94B IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

WTIN20 DEMS 090600
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC
OF 09.06.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 09.06.2020.

BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION COVER CENTRAL & WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL &
SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA & TENASSERIM COASTS. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST BAY
OF BENGAL & NORTH ANDMAN SEA.



UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EAST CENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBORHOOD, A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER
THE SAME REGION. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
BECOME WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL LOW LOW NIL NIL