EPAC: INVEST 92E

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 92, 2020062112, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1046W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, ep752020 to ep922020,

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922020 06/21/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 48 54 55 54 53 52 50 49 48 47
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 48 54 55 54 53 52 50 49 48 47
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 27 27 26 25 24 22 20 19 18 18
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 7 8 4 3 10 5 14 17 12 13 15 16 13 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 3 1 10 4 5 0 0 6 5 0 -2 1 2
SHEAR DIR 64 68 64 61 83 155 99 145 100 121 144 165 141 126 106 94 86
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.1 29.2 28.8 27.9 27.9 26.4 26.8 26.6 27.0 27.3 28.0 28.4 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 162 158 159 155 145 144 127 130 128 131 134 142 147 144
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 75 73 74 73 73 71 66 64 59 56 53 52 53 48 50 49 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 14 30 38 47 47 55 55 20 -1 0 16 11 20 26 25
200 MB DIV 94 68 56 50 60 107 127 84 31 -15 -28 -32 -41 -27 -22 -8 -19
700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -6 -1 -1 -6 1 -2 5 6 4 6 1 4 2 3
LAND (KM) 769 787 832 884 944 1119 1255 1411 1544 1676 1808 1936 2041 2128 2225 2307 2370
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.7 107.0 108.4 109.9 112.9 115.9 119.1 121.7 123.9 125.4 126.8 127.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 12 9 7 6 4 4 6 6 4
HEAT CONTENT 38 34 35 36 31 49 18 19 13 2 11 3 4 6 11 13 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. 40. 42. 44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 28. 34. 35. 35. 33. 32. 30. 29. 28. 27.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 104.6

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/21/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.0% 10.3% 5.2% 2.2% 0.4% 3.6% 2.4% 11.1%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.4% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 3.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/21/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Interaction with a system to its west is the biggest hindrance going forward I think.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS now back to explicitly showing development.

[Extratropical94]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
are beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
this week while the disturbance moves westward, away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF now back on.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922020 06/21/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 54 63 67 64 63 60 58 55 54 53 54
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 54 63 67 64 63 60 58 55 54 53 54
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 35 36 36 35 33 32 31 31 33 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 6 7 7 13 13 11 6 9 13 15 13 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 5 3 3 7 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -5 -5 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 78 71 69 64 68 90 78 110 77 119 159 127 99 80 83 78 54
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.2 27.5 27.2 26.1 26.5 26.3 26.7 27.1 28.1 28.0 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 162 160 157 157 148 140 136 124 128 125 129 133 144 143 142
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4
700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 71 69 65 61 57 55 52 52 52 53 52 54 56 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 10 13 13 13 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 9
850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 16 32 37 51 48 62 50 12 7 20 16 12 15 26 32
200 MB DIV 82 75 63 75 78 111 88 49 -6 -14 -33 -38 -16 -4 0 10 1
700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 -8 -1 -4 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 0
LAND (KM) 784 805 835 888 931 1101 1194 1352 1489 1629 1786 1932 2054 2170 2313 2464 2558
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.6 14.9 14.9 14.6 14.3 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.1 107.4 108.9 110.4 113.3 116.5 119.4 121.9 123.8 125.5 127.0 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 14 15 15 15 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 6 8 8 6
HEAT CONTENT 36 33 36 33 27 41 12 12 6 0 6 1 3 5 11 10 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. 40. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 21. 34. 43. 48. 44. 43. 40. 38. 35. 34. 33. 34.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 105.1

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/21/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.56 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 18.0% 9.4% 4.4% 0.7% 7.4% 8.8% 14.9%
Bayesian: 0.9% 4.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 7.5% 3.5% 1.6% 0.2% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/21/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

SHIPS has this becoming a hurricane. Nice.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
several days while the disturbance moves westward, away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[aspen]

Seems like there’s a bit of rotation to this. I think it’s quite likely we’ll had TD3 or TS Boris by Wednesday.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922020 06/22/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 40 45 55 62 63 58 53 48 45 44 43 42 43 42
V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 40 45 55 62 63 58 53 48 45 44 43 42 43 42
V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 42 47 47 45 43 40 37 34 33 33 34 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 7 8 13 9 16 15 13 13 12 10 12 13 8 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 0 7 1 -3 -1 0 1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1
SHEAR DIR 68 77 82 66 84 67 104 80 123 137 145 139 124 75 80 88 78
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.4 27.4 27.2 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 27.1 27.7 28.1 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 157 158 151 140 137 122 122 122 121 123 134 141 145 142
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 68 65 63 59 59 53 56 55 54 51 51 53 56 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 11 30 42 45 54 49 46 49 1 1 15 25 1 10 22 26 18
200 MB DIV 65 67 83 95 102 83 41 7 -19 -36 -39 -34 0 -3 4 -14 -31
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -5 -5 -11 0 -11 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 2
LAND (KM) 822 875 919 986 1081 1204 1345 1496 1638 1783 1915 2018 2140 2305 2521 2710 2773
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.4 109.8 111.3 112.8 116.2 119.3 122.0 124.2 125.9 127.3 128.5 129.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 15 15 17 14 12 9 7 6 6 7 8 11 9 5
HEAT CONTENT 35 36 29 31 41 14 11 5 0 1 0 0 0 6 9 11 12

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 32. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 20. 30. 37. 38. 33. 28. 24. 20. 19. 18. 17. 18. 17.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 107.0

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 9.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 6.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.60 6.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 5.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -6.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 45.2% 30.5% 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 30.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 15.8% 57.2% 41.9% 30.9% 10.9% 21.6% 4.9% 9.4%
Bayesian: 3.0% 22.1% 11.8% 3.9% 0.0% 3.4% 3.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.3% 41.5% 28.1% 11.6% 3.7% 17.0% 12.8% 3.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS basically dropped this but probably didn't initialize correctly.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next two to three
days while the disturbance moves westward, away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF also basically drops this.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, are showing some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual additional development, and a tropical
depression could form during the next two to three days while the
disturbance moves westward, away from the coast of Mexico. After
that time, cooler waters are likely to inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Last 2 GFS runs fully develop this again.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922020 06/22/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 37 42 46 46 47 46 44 41 40 40 41
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 37 42 46 46 47 46 44 41 40 40 41
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 24 23 22 20 19 18 17 16 15 N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 7 9 6 9 2 3 1 6 12 14 13 10 9 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 4 10 9 4 4 4 3 2 -1 0 3 4 5 4
SHEAR DIR 54 52 44 27 15 27 45 192 90 224 63 95 112 120 121 103 96
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 28.9 27.5 27.2 26.0 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.6 25.6 26.4 27.5 27.8 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 160 156 140 137 123 113 112 113 117 118 128 140 142 146
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4
700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 68 66 63 57 54 51 49 48 44 45 45 49 50 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 37 36 31 34 31 2 -6 4 8 -8 -2 0 10 15 9
200 MB DIV 50 74 86 79 83 83 41 20 -7 4 -7 -19 -21 -12 -41 -33 -23
700-850 TADV -4 -4 -8 -12 -13 -6 -5 2 3 2 4 3 3 4 2 2 1
LAND (KM) 994 1055 1125 1206 1220 1295 1381 1459 1572 1682 1763 1845 1992 2202 2446 2599 2575
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.2 14.3 15.2 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.1 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.2 112.5 113.9 115.4 118.3 120.7 122.6 124.2 125.6 126.8 127.7 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 14 12 9 7 7 5 5 8 10 11 10 8
HEAT CONTENT 37 46 51 51 22 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 10 16

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 29. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 17. 21. 21. 22. 21. 19. 16. 15. 15. 16.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 109.8

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 8.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 5.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 5.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 2.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 2.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.7% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 21.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.9% 9.9% 4.1% 1.8% 0.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.6%
Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 12.1% 9.5% 0.6% 0.1% 8.3% 7.3% 0.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, have changed little in
organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development, and a
tropical depression could form during the next two to three days
while the disturbance moves westward. After that time, cooler
waters are likely to inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF not in love with this.

[Yellow Evan]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1800 UTC 12.2N 111.8W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922020 06/22/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 38 42 45 45 46 46 44 42 41 41 41
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 38 42 45 45 46 46 44 42 41 41 41
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 21 19 19 18 17 17 16 16
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 8 9 5 4 2 3 4 6 9 13 12 14 14 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 5 10 12 7 8 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -5
SHEAR DIR 58 48 32 19 32 38 44 195 161 149 123 101 104 106 96 75 39
SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.6 26.9 25.4 25.0 25.3 25.7 25.4 25.9 27.1 27.8 27.9 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 157 150 141 133 117 112 115 118 115 121 134 141 141 139
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 69 66 63 57 53 51 49 47 47 48 49 51 54 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 41 38 38 46 27 -1 5 19 27 22 21 31 38 40 18
200 MB DIV 87 97 85 96 87 71 24 -5 2 -1 -11 -31 -11 -12 5 11 8
700-850 TADV -5 -8 -14 -16 -14 -10 0 1 2 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3
LAND (KM) 1094 1179 1259 1284 1304 1382 1447 1546 1672 1780 1876 1990 2131 2282 2434 2529 2535
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.3 14.5 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.4 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.8 114.2 115.7 117.1 119.7 121.9 123.7 125.4 126.8 127.9 128.9 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 12 10 9 7 6 5 6 6 8 7 5 2
HEAT CONTENT 49 56 51 21 14 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 9 9

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 29. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 20. 21. 21. 19. 17. 16. 16. 16.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 111.4

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 8.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 5.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.64 6.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 1.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.6% 25.6% 0.0% 0.0% 22.9% 22.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 12.9% 5.2% 2.5% 0.2% 4.9% 0.6% 0.8%
Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 13.9% 10.4% 0.9% 0.1% 9.3% 7.7% 0.3%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##