EPAC: INVEST 92E

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Although this
system has changed little in organization since this morning,
gradual development is possible and a tropical depression could form
during the next two to three days. The disturbance is forecast to
move westward over cooler waters later this week, which should
inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

22/2330 UTC 12.7N 112.4W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

Still quite broad and the center is south of the deep convection. Has convection but the system isn't terribly well organized. Needs to ramp up if it wants to develop.

[cycloneye]

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have not become any
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to remain conducive for gradual development over the next
couple of days, but the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler
waters after that time which should inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some gradual development over the next couple of
days, but the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler
waters after that time which should inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

23/1730 UTC 14.2N 117.7W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. This system could become a tropical depression
during the next day or two before it moves over cooler waters that
will inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during
the next day or so while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
before it moves over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

24/1130 UTC 15.2N 122.6W TOO WEAK 92E -- East Pacific

Seems to be refiring. Might have written this off too much.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922020 06/24/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 23 26 28 29
V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 23 26 28 29
V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 21 21 19 17 15 12 17 17 21 17 16 10 7 8 9 13 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -1 4 5 5 0 -1 0 -3 1 0 -3 -3 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 80 94 108 111 120 116 111 99 117 129 127 133 229 254 226 229 249
SST (C) 28.6 28.0 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.9 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 151 144 137 132 130 128 126 132 141 144 143 145 142 143 144 144 143
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 62 61 56 51 43 44 44 47 50 55 50 51 46 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 26 14 4 4 -17 -14 -4 -12 -3 0 -4 -7 -3 -11 -24 -45 -59
200 MB DIV 21 12 18 20 17 -13 -16 -7 -9 -16 -62 -70 -41 -1 20 28 24
700-850 TADV -6 -2 -1 -2 0 2 0 0 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 1712 1738 1748 1754 1761 1795 1862 1971 2171 2396 2645 2750 2727 2680 2616 2546 2503
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.7 14.1 12.7 11.1 9.3 7.9 7.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.4 124.0 124.5 124.9 125.7 126.5 127.3 128.5 129.8 131.2 132.3 133.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 6 5 4 4 7 10 11 10 8 4 3 3 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 27 19 13 10 8 5 2 4 8 9 10 13 17 20 20 19 19

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 386 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 122.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/24/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.05 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 9.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 3.3% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/24/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing a wide area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
day or so while the system moves westward at about 15 mph. After
that time, it is expected to move over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.