EPAC: BORIS - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

93E.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.102W

EP, 93, 2020062300, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1306W, 25, 1012, LO,

[Kingarabian]

About time.

[cycloneye]

1. A small area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce an area of cloudiness and showers. Although the shower
activity has become a little less organized overnight,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the
next few days while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

A nearly stationary area of low pressure is located about 1600
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
has decreased since yesterday, environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the
next few days while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

A nearly stationary area of low pressure is located about 1600 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Although this disturbance has a well-defined circulation, it is
producing only limited shower activity. Environmental conditions
are expected to support the redevelopment of thunderstorms and the
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few
days while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 132.9W
ABOUT 1615 MI...2605 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 132.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with this
motion continuing through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm late tonight or
on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

The small low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has acquired enough organized
convection near and southwest of the center to be designated a
tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression 3-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in
agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 275/6. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the
cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the
northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to
move northwestward between 24-72 h. After that, the cyclone should
be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main
steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the
balance of the forecast period. The official track forecast is near
the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or
so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical
storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening
trend, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near
120 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is near the upper end
of the intensity guidance, with the remainder of the forecast near
the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 10.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932020 06/24/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 40 38 33 27 22 18 16 16 17 19 20
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 40 38 33 27 22 18 16 16 17 19 20
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 36 34 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 4 5 8 11 14 16 17 15 13 11 9 11 10 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 3 6 6 4 -2 0 -3 6 4 3 6
SHEAR DIR 5 355 18 66 125 159 185 183 190 194 225 254 299 315 300 313 310
SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.2 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 139 139 136 134 131 124 118 118 117 115 117 121 124 123
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5
700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 64 63 63 61 57 51 43 38 34 34 34 35 34 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 12 12 13 11 9 7 5 4 2 2 2 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 30 35 38 37 6 -21 -33 -34 -26 -14 2 11 28 27 33
200 MB DIV 30 -1 -14 -1 -1 12 1 -13 -16 -6 -17 -20 -19 -3 5 16 22
700-850 TADV -2 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 2 0 4 1 0 3 5 2 4 1
LAND (KM) 2604 2530 2456 2388 2329 2196 2074 1952 1805 1643 1487 1329 1183 1021 883 755 662
LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.4 12.5 13.7 14.6 15.4 15.8 15.7 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.3 134.0 134.6 135.1 136.1 136.8 137.5 138.6 139.9 141.3 142.9 144.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 7 8 10 11 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 15 17 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. 21. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.1 132.6

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 06/24/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 6.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.41 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 22.9% 19.2% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 7.1% 31.0% 18.5% 7.5% 4.8% 3.5% 0.3% 2.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.2% 18.1% 12.6% 6.8% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.7%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 06/24/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

NHC seems a little conservative here.

[Yellow Evan]

24/1130 UTC 10.4N 132.8W T2.0/2.0 93E -- East Pacific

[aspen]

TD3-E is, for now, located in a small pocket of low shear. It might have the opportunity to intensify rather quickly if convection starts firing around the partially exposed center.

[Yellow Evan]

24/1730 UTC 10.5N 133.4W T2.0/2.0 03E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

...DEPRESSION NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 133.8W
ABOUT 1550 MI...2495 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1790 MI...2880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 133.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with
this motion continuing through Friday.

Recently received satellite wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven





Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Three-E has a
small and well-defined circulation with the center just to the
northeast of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT-B overpass
showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center and 20-25 kt
winds in other parts of the circulation. Based on this, the
initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/8. There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge
to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level
trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should
cause the depression to move northwestward between 12-60 h. After
that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade
winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a
west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period.
There is some spread in the forward speed between the faster GFS
and the slower UKMET/ECMWF, and the new official forecast
compromises between them in a track that is near, but a little
faster than, the consensus models.

There is also no change to the intensity forecast reasoning.
Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or
so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical
storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening, and
most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The
intensity guidance for this advisory is weaker than the previous
guidance, so the new intensity forecast, which is little
changed, now lies near the upper end of the guidance through 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 10.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

This is falling apart fast. Center FAR removed from the convection at this point.

[Kingarabian]

Without a favorable ENSO state, this is a tough area for a TC to thrive in this early in the season.

[Yellow Evan]

24/2330 UTC 10.6N 134.4W T1.0/2.0 03E -- East Pacific

Ruh Roh

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 134.7W
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 134.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the
next two to three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or
on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

There has been little change in the organization of the depression
since the previous advisory. Deep convection that was located over
the southern portion of the circulation waned during the early
afternoon, but a new convective burst has developed within the past
couple of hours to the south of the exposed low-level center.
The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on the earlier
ASCAT data and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Although the depression is moving over warm waters and within an
area of low wind shear, water vapor imagery indicates that mid-level
dry air is located near and just north of the cyclone which is
likely the cause of the lack of convection over the northern
portion of the circulation. As a result, only modest strengthening
is anticipated over the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, dry
air and gradually decreasing SSTs along the forecast track are
likely to cause weakening. The latest intensity guidance is
slightly lower than the previous cycle, and the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new official intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP corrected
consensus aid.

The depression has been moving more westward than expected, with an
initial motion estimate of 285/8 kt. A cut-off low well to the
north-northwest of the depression is expected to weaken the
deep-layer ridge that is currently steering the cyclone. This
should cause the depression to turn northwestward on Thursday, with
this motion continuing over the next couple of days. By 60-72 h,
the weakening tropical cyclone should turn back toward the west as
it is steered by the low-level flow. Later in the period, the
remnant low is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the trade
wind flow over the central Pacific. The latest track model
envelope has shifted somewhat southward, which has required a
southward adjustment to the official forecast. The new NHC forecast
lies between the previous advisory and the latest consensus aids,
along the northern portion of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 10.6N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 10.9N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 11.4N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 12.1N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 12.5N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 12.8N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 12.5N 145.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 11.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[aspen]

Some convection is actually firing near or above the center. Maybe this has a shot of getting named after all.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

Thunderstorm activity has waned significantly near the center of the
small cyclone, and is now restricted to the southwestern quadrant
due to the ingestion of a large slug of dry mid-level air from the
north and northeast. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is
based on continuity with the previous advisory, and satellite
current intensity estimates of T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 from TAFB and
SAB, respectively.

The small depression has been moving westward or 275/07 kt. The
cyclone is forecast by the global models to move generally
west-northwestward for the next 3 days along the southern periphery
of a deep-layer ridge. Thereafter, a weakening and more shallow
system is expected to turn toward the west and then west-southwest
after moving into the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC track
forecast is south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to
a blend of the consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and HCCA.

Despite moving through a regime of very light wind shear and over
SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 2-3 days, the depression will
skirt along the southwestern edge of an expansive region of cool,
dry air located over the mid-Pacific. The statistical SHIPS and LGEM
intensity models now show no intensification during the next 5 days,
while the global and regional models show only very modest
strengthening. The small size of the cyclone argues for at least
some strengthening since only a small increase in convection
can quickly spin up the low-level field. However, proximity to the
aforementioned cool, stable air should prevent any significant
intensification. By 72h and beyond, the unfavorable combination of
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, marginal SSTS, and a
drier air mass are expected to cause the tropical cyclone to
degenerate into a remnant low over the Central Pacific hurricane
basin. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than
the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus models IVCN
and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 10.6N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 10.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 11.4N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 11.8N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 12.1N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 12.3N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 11.8N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 10.9N 151.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

Convection has increased some this morning near the center of
Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly
organized. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with
scatterometer data from several hours ago.

Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the
intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is
open for about another 12-24 h. So, the intensity forecast shows
slight strengthening during that period. After that time,
increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause
the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low
by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h. The new intensity
forecast is a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is westward or 280/8. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves
along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a
turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone
weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering
mechanism. The new forecast track is an update of the previous
forecast and lies the near consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[BYG Jacob]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8583/SiAFrE.gif

Ick