ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

2005 has fallen in one respect.

Edouard is the earliest known 5th named storm on record for the
Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the
record formerly held by Emily on July 12, 2005.

The big difference is that the storms this year have all been weak and we haven't seen any hurricanes, let alone early season monsters.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has how was the ACE in 2005 on this July 5 date? Right now 2020 is at 6.2 units.

[CrazyC83]

Does anyone has how was the ACE in 2005 on this July 5 date? Right now 2020 is at 6.2 units.

Not sure up to this moment, since at this point in 2005, Cindy was preparing to make landfall in Louisiana (as a hurricane) and Dennis was starting to ramp up before its rapid intensification on July 6 and 7.

[chaser1]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/729496357144100895/goes16_ir_05L_202007060025_lat35.png
The center has regained definition, it's right on the edge of convection. Most likely a TS now

And the 00z best track just updated to 35 kt/1008 mbar. Welcome TS Edouard, the earliest 5th named storm on record.

And there is a chance we might welcome Fay in the next few days as well. Imagine if we went through all of 2014's names before August! 2020 is going to 2020

Crap, I missed it by a day! This, from the "When will Edouard Form" thread -

{{{Edouard will form in the far W. Caribbean on July 4th (between 4:00-6:00p.m.), while Fay will form in the Eastern or S.E. Caribbean on July 7th}}}

Well actually, I was quite off on location thinking Edouard would've been in the Caribbean rather then near Bermuda. And Fay? Potent wave approaching the Islands but not looking like it'll survive the shear.

[Dean_175]

We have seen a lot of named storms so far. A record if I am not mistaken. However, I still think a lot of this is coincidence. We have seen a lot of short lived and weak storms. That is normal for this time of year- but then again this time of year (June-early July) is not very predictive of the rest of the season. We have a head start in names but I don’t see a lot of indicators things are going to explode.

Are any models hinting at a possible major or even just a long track Caribbean-based storm in the near future? If not then in a couple of weeks, 2005 will probably have 2 record breaking storms to 0 “real” storms thus far for 2020

[Hammy]

We have seen a lot of named storms so far. A record if I am not mistaken. However, I still think a lot of this is coincidence. We have seen a lot of short lived and weak storms. That is normal for this time of year- but then again this time of year (June-early July) is not very predictive of the rest of the season. We have a head start in names but I don’t see a lot of indicators things are going to explode.

Are any models hinting at a possible major or even just a long track Caribbean-based storm in the near future? If not then in a couple of weeks, 2005 will probably have 2 record breaking storms to 0 “real” storms thus far for 2020

2005 is a record season and similarly to 2013 isn't really a good comparison year. And at this point in 2004, there were literally no depressions and the invests that came about struggled and did not develop--this year we've had five storms that have overperformed and struggled very little throughout their lifespan, already showing a major indicator that shear this year is quite a bit lower and instability higher than where it's been at this point in many recent seasons.

[EquusStorm]

While nothing has been especially strong so far, at least we haven't had slop like Colin '16 named this year. The brief systems have honestly been relatively robust; that said, we've gotta be fairly close to the lowest ACE for the first five storms of the season... a 2017 parallel that I'm afraid won't be the last

[Ubuntwo]

The Euro and its ensembles show a decent bout of baroclinically driven intensification starting about now. The operational gets it down to 998mb, and most ensemble members are in that ballpark. Winds peak at 50kt in the operational.

[al78]

We have seen a lot of named storms so far. A record if I am not mistaken. However, I still think a lot of this is coincidence. We have seen a lot of short lived and weak storms. That is normal for this time of year- but then again this time of year (June-early July) is not very predictive of the rest of the season. We have a head start in names but I don’t see a lot of indicators things are going to explode.

There is little correlation between June/July activity and the activity of the season as a whole. Look at 1997, four named storms (one which was a hurricane) and a tropical depression prior to 1st August, then poof, nothing until September thanks to a big El Nino.

If a storm forms in the MDR prior to 1st August, that is more indicative of an active season overall.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd-faq/#trop ... limatology

[Hammy]

We have seen a lot of named storms so far. A record if I am not mistaken. However, I still think a lot of this is coincidence. We have seen a lot of short lived and weak storms. That is normal for this time of year- but then again this time of year (June-early July) is not very predictive of the rest of the season. We have a head start in names but I don’t see a lot of indicators things are going to explode.

There is little correlation between June/July activity and the activity of the season as a whole. Look at 1997, four named storms (one which was a hurricane) and a tropical depression prior to 1st August, then poof, nothing until September thanks to a big El Nino.

If a storm forms in the MDR prior to 1st August, that is more indicative of an active season overall.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd-faq/#trop ... limatology

Many active years go into without anything in the MDR--it all depends on the placement of the monsoon trough--1999, 2004, 2007, 2010 being examples of active seasons that didn't even have a tropical depression develop in the MDR before August meanwhile 2013 had two July MDR storms. The atmospheric conditions the storms encounter does act as an indicator, and this year the trend is for more systems developing closer to the US (1985 could be a good analog for this sort of setup--a year that had a very quiet Cabo Verde season)

And 1997's El Nino was already starting to develop well before hurricane season so that isn't a good analog year.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1280108556163796993

[plasticup]

Can someone please post the coordinates of Pearl Island.? Not having any luck on Google except some island very close to Nova Scotia.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Pearl ... 393422,17z

[aspen]

While nothing has been especially strong so far, at least we haven't had slop like Colin '16 named this year. The brief systems have honestly been relatively robust; that said, we've gotta be fairly close to the lowest ACE for the first five storms of the season... a 2017 parallel that I'm afraid won't be the last

This is really starting to remind me of 2017, with a bunch of weak systems popping up every so often throughout June and July. However, this year, I think we will get a weak hurricane this month, before activity really ramps up in August.

[EquusStorm]

Disturbingly close to 2017, even. To be fair we had a couple MDR systems in 2017 by mid July instead of mostly mid-latitude systems, including Bret in June, but the dust bomb hasn't helped us much this year

[Steve]

Disturbingly close to 2017, even. To be fair we had a couple MDR systems in 2017 by mid July instead of mostly mid-latitude systems, including Bret in June, but the dust bomb hasn't helped us much this year

Water temperature profiles are pretty close to and seem to be a blend of many of the recent extreme years such as 04, 05, 17 - among others. Generally though, except for the EPAC going into La Nina, almost every comparison I have looked at seems closest to 2005. We won't have the same tracks, and we won't likely have that extreme of a season. But the comparison(s) is noteworthy.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1280265104525791233

[Kingarabian]

Very easy to argue that this was a TS longer than 12 hours IMO.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow:

Very easy to argue that this was a TS longer than 12 hours IMO.

I guess. I'm not a big fan of anal retentive classification of recent years or decade. But to each their own

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:

Very easy to argue that this was a TS longer than 12 hours IMO.

I guess. I'm not a big fan of anal retentive classification. It skews real storm data too much IMO. But to each their own

Amen.

[Monsoonjr99]

Many active years go into without anything in the MDR--it all depends on the placement of the monsoon trough--1999, 2004, 2007, 2010 being examples of active seasons that didn't even have a tropical depression develop in the MDR before August meanwhile 2013 had two July MDR storms. The atmospheric conditions the storms encounter does act as an indicator, and this year the trend is for more systems developing closer to the US (1985 could be a good analog for this sort of setup--a year that had a very quiet Cabo Verde season)

And 1997's El Nino was already starting to develop well before hurricane season so that isn't a good analog year.

Eh, systems developing in the western Atlantic closer to the U.S. is climo for early season. I wouldn't put too much weight into that.