ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zhukm29]

This thing continues to fire deep convection in the NE quad. The LLC has regained definition, with the low level cloud deck filling in. This might be its last hoorah towards getting named.

It all comes down to 11pm. It’s at DMIN and looks good, so it’s really up in the air on what the NHC wants to do with it. It’s a junk storm that’s only a number booster, but a TS is a TS. We need an ASCAT to pass it

This little guy is a fighter, and given the impressive convective flare up just now even with the unfavorable conditions, it's certainly deserving of a name if it earns it tonight. A TS is a TS! That being said, it's biggest obstacle right now isn't the cooler waters or its fast forward speed, it's ASCAT deciding whether it wants to show up again after going AWOL for a while now

[Ubuntwo]

This thing continues to fire deep convection in the NE quad. The LLC has regained definition, with the low level cloud deck filling in. This might be its last hoorah towards getting named.

It all comes down to 11pm. It’s at DMIN and looks good, so it’s really up in the air on what the NHC wants to do with it. It’s a junk storm that’s only a number booster, but a TS is a TS. We need an ASCAT to pass it

This little guy is a fighter, and given the impressive convective flare up just now even with the unfavorable conditions, it's certainly deserving of a name if it earns it tonight. A TS is a TS! That being said, it's biggest obstacle right now isn't the cooler waters or its fast forward speed, it's ASCAT deciding whether it wants to show up again after going AWOL for a while now

Based on modeling, there's about 18 hours before transition, and by the end it'll be getting a big boost from baroclinicity. Most of the Euro ensembles have intensity peaking when it's at about 40N - it's at about 36.5N now. There's still time.

[CyclonicFury]

I think winds will likely increase to TS force, but an earlier ASCAT pass suggested the circulation has lost definition, and it is a distinct possibility TD5 could open up into a trough tonight. Tonight's ASCAT should offer a better idea.

[Ubuntwo]

From 0-1z the MetOp satellites will pass near TD5. Looks like MetOp-C will come the closest, shortly before 0:50 UTC. The data should come in before the 11PM.

[northjaxpro]

I think he will just make it. The new convective burst.near the Low Level Center will get the cyclone classified to TS late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

[plasticup]

34 knot winds (2-min average) at Pearl Island. This is a tropical storm, no doubt in my mind. I am a little miffed that they never issued a Tropical Storm Warning.

What is the elevation of the anemometer? If it is 10 m, that is, standard elevation, will the NHC eventually upgrade this to a TS—perhaps posthumously?

Also, did you send in the observations to the NHC?

It’s a tiny island, I think 0.25 acre. Couldn’t be more than 15 feet of elevation.

[Ubuntwo]

Where's the center? Either it's opened up or relocated under convection.

[toad strangler]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/729483425781645443/goes16_vis-swir_05L_202007052325_lat35.png?width=655&height=473
Where's the center? Either it's opened up or relocated under convection.

Where's The Beef?

[zhukm29]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/729483425781645443/goes16_vis-swir_05L_202007052325_lat35.png?width=655&height=473
Where's the center? Either it's opened up or relocated under convection.

The center was better defined a few hours ago, but that's a good point. The ASCAT pass tonight will hopefully tell a lot (assuming it finally hits the storm). The long ASCAT drought for this system really leads to a lot of questions... here's to hoping that ASCAT doesn't whiff again

[Hammy]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/729483425781645443/goes16_vis-swir_05L_202007052325_lat35.png?width=655&height=473
Where's the center? Either it's opened up or relocated under convection.

[Ubuntwo]

The center has regained definition, it's right on the edge of convection. Most likely a TS now

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/729496357144100895/goes16_ir_05L_202007060025_lat35.png
The center has regained definition, it's right on the edge of convection. Most likely a TS now

And the 00z best track just updated to 35 kt/1008 mbar. Welcome TS Edouard, the earliest 5th named storm on record.

[zhukm29]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/729496357144100895/goes16_ir_05L_202007060025_lat35.png
The center has regained definition, it's right on the edge of convection. Most likely a TS now

And the 00z best track just updated to 35 kt/1008 mbar. Welcome TS Edouard, the earliest 5th named storm on record.

And there is a chance we might welcome Fay in the next few days as well. Imagine if we went through all of 2014's names before August! 2020 is going to 2020

[toad strangler]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/729496357144100895/goes16_ir_05L_202007060025_lat35.png
The center has regained definition, it's right on the edge of convection. Most likely a TS now

And the 00z best track just updated to 35 kt/1008 mbar. Welcome TS Edouard, the earliest 5th named storm on record.

lol Good Lord

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/729496357144100895/goes16_ir_05L_202007060025_lat35.png
The center has regained definition, it's right on the edge of convection. Most likely a TS now

And the 00z best track just updated to 35 kt/1008 mbar. Welcome TS Edouard, the earliest 5th named storm on record.

And there is a chance we might welcome Fay in the next few days as well. Imagine if we went through all of 2014's names before August! 2020 is going to 2020

And it’s possible future Fay could get up to NY/CT by the weekend, if the models are right. This would be the first direct TC strike since Andrea ‘13 (or Hermine ‘16, depending on how you define a “TC strike”). 2020 is really gonna 2020.

[bohai]

Can someone please post the coordinates of Pearl Island.? Not having any luck on Google except some island very close to Nova Scotia.

[BadLarry95]

Can someone please post the coordinates of Pearl Island.? Not having any luck on Google except some island very close to Nova Scotia.

It’s in the bay inside the “hook” of western Bermuda

[zhukm29]

Just when we all thought it was dead, TD5 gave us a reminder that it's 2020

Not perfect, but it's July 5, and it still looks better than it did all day today.

[Aric Dunn]

well there we go.. we have Edouard..

[HurricaneEnzo]

Quality hasn't been that great but 2020 keeps rolling. Gonna get a lot worse before it gets better I'm afraid. It's gonna be a wild ride folks.

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