ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 97, 2020070400, , BEST, 0, 300N, 730W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, SPAWNINVEST, al772020 to al972020,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120983

[toad strangler]

An obvious climo hot spot for this time of year.

[Aric Dunn]

let the fun begin lol

[northjaxpro]

No doubt it is a solid TC. I personally think it is a moderate to strong TS right now, based on the CDO, which has rapidly blossomed during the past 6 hours. I would say this is at least a 45KT cyclone and could be stronger currently.

We will see what NHC says soon...

[Ubuntwo]

No doubt it is a solid TC. I personally thinkntjus is a steong TS right now based on the CDO which as rapidly blossomed furing the oast 6 hours. I wiuld saay this is at least a 45KT cyclone and could br stronger currently.

Based on earlier ASCAT data it is very unlikely this is a 45kt system right now. The NHC pins it at 25kt based on that, though accounting for an increase in organization 30kt is reasonable.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have persisted during the past several
hours in association with a small low pressure system located about
midway between Florida and Bermuda. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next day or two while the low
moves generally east-northeastward. By Sunday night, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
significant development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[northjaxpro]

No doubt it is a solid TC. I personally thinkntjus is a steong TS right now based on the CDO which as rapidly blossomed furing the oast 6 hours. I wiuld saay this is at least a 45KT cyclone and could br stronger currently.

Based on earlier ASCAT data it is very unlikely this is a 45kt system right now. The NHC pins it at 25kt based on that, though accounting for an increase in organization 30kt is reasonable.

I differ with you my friend. Respectfully disagree!

[Aric Dunn]

No doubt it is a solid TC. I personally thinkntjus is a steong TS right now based on the CDO which as rapidly blossomed furing the oast 6 hours. I wiuld saay this is at least a 45KT cyclone and could br stronger currently.

Based on earlier ASCAT data it is very unlikely this is a 45kt system right now. The NHC pins it at 25kt based on that, though accounting for an increase in organization 30kt is reasonable.

that ASCAT from earlier is not even usable at this point.

35 to 40kts is plausible.. if this convective patter persists for the next several hours. confidence goes up A LOT>

[aspen]

I’m betting this will be classified either for the 00z update or the 06z update.

[CyclonicFury]

The NHC position is about 150 miles to far north with the "X" on the website.

Yeah the NHC X does not even agree with the 00z best track.

[Nancy Smar]

[northjaxpro]

97L is a very small cyclone and remember these small cyclones can ramp up very quickly. They have their own unique environment. I always remember Hurricane Danny in 2015, which was an extremely tiny TC and it intensified to become a Category 3 major in the MDR. If my memory serves me right, only the HWRF model had Danny even developing at all at that time.

[Ubuntwo]

No doubt it is a solid TC. I personally thinkntjus is a steong TS right now based on the CDO which as rapidly blossomed furing the oast 6 hours. I wiuld saay this is at least a 45KT cyclone and could br stronger currently.

Based on earlier ASCAT data it is very unlikely this is a 45kt system right now. The NHC pins it at 25kt based on that, though accounting for an increase in organization 30kt is reasonable.

I differ with you my friend. Respectfully disagree!

This was the system last night, 10 PM eastern. Even at this point rotation was evident and low level convergence was evident.

Since then convection increased and peaked at around 8 AM when inflow and convergence were very evident peeking through the convection.

Outflow has improved since then, but thunderstorm activity has been up and down. It's slowly organizing but not at a blazingly fast pace and absolutely not at 45kt, that would not fall by the NHC's wayside.

[Aric Dunn]

Based on earlier ASCAT data it is very unlikely this is a 45kt system right now. The NHC pins it at 25kt based on that, though accounting for an increase in organization 30kt is reasonable.

I differ with you my friend. Respectfully disagree!

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/728444556043092048/GOES16_1km_ir_202007030245_27.png
This was the system last night, 10 PM eastern. Even at this point rotation was evident and low level convergence was evident.

Since then convection increased and peaked at around 8 AM when inflow and convergence were very evident peeking through the convection.

Outflow has improved since then, but thunderstorm activity has been up and down. It's slowly organizing but not at a blazingly fast pace and absolutely not at 45kt, that would not fall by the NHC's wayside.

It is the pattern in the convection. last night and most of today it was pulsing convection all over the place... a sign of no defined LLC.. multiple vorts..

now, however we have sustained hot towers co located with a distinct MLC and LLC .. completely different.

I would wager we have TS if recon were to go out right now.

[northjaxpro]

Again we agree to disagree. I am not on here to debate moderators, although I respect your role on this forum, and hopefully you respect my input and analysis on here, which I have enjoyed doing as a member for 10 years.

[Ubuntwo]

I differ with you my friend. Respectfully disagree!

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/728444556043092048/GOES16_1km_ir_202007030245_27.png
This was the system last night, 10 PM eastern. Even at this point rotation was evident and low level convergence was evident.

Since then convection increased and peaked at around 8 AM when inflow and convergence were very evident peeking through the convection.

Outflow has improved since then, but thunderstorm activity has been up and down. It's slowly organizing but not at a blazingly fast pace and absolutely not at 45kt, that would not fall by the NHC's wayside.

It is the pattern in the convection. last night and most of today it was pulsing convection all over the place... a sign of no defined LLC.. multiple vorts..

now, however we have sustained hot towers co located with a distinct MLC and LLC .. completely different.

I would wager we have TS if recon were to go out right now.

As I said it is organizing slowly, but it's only recently become stacked. Now the door is open for intensification but nothing will be instant.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Again we agree to disagree. I am not on here to debate moderators, although I respect your role on this forum, and hopefully you respect my input and analysis on here, which I have enjoyed doing as a member for 10 years.

me ?

I am agreement with you.. lol
probably not 45kts yet.. but likely a TS for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

10% seems too generous considering how it looks at the moment. I would’ve gone with 30-40%.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Again we agree to disagree. I am not on here to debate moderators, although I respect your role on this forum, and hopefully you respect my input and analysis on here, which I have enjoyed doing as a member for 10 years.

me ?

I am agreement with you.. lol
probably not 45kts yet.. but likely a TS for sure.

No not you Aric. I was responding to Ubuntwo, who I thought was a moderator. I may be in error thinking it was a mod.

[Ubuntwo]

:uarrow: Again we agree to disagree. I am not on here to debate moderators, although I respect your role on this forum, and hopefully you respect my input and analysis on here, which I have enjoyed doing as a member for 10 years.

me ?

I am agreement with you.. lol
probably not 45kts yet.. but likely a TS for sure.

No not you Aric. I was responding to Ubuntwo who I thought was moderator. I may be in error thinking it was a mod.

I'm no mod, although I respect your opinions and those of everyone else on here.