ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Didn’t Andrea ‘13 make it up here fully tropical? I only vaguely remember it.

Haha. That’s most of them.

2013 was also the first season I tracked...what a great year to get into hurricane tracking lol. The only systems I clearly remembered are Andrea (got up to the NE US), Humberto (became a hurricane before dissipating and regenerating), and Karen (prime example of how everything just failed that season).

On the subject of Fay, it looks like convection is starting to spread over the center some more.

[Yellow Evan]

09/2331 UTC 36.1N 74.7W T3.0/3.0 FAY -- Atlantic

[ouragans]

9 years? (Irene)

Sandy 2012

Sandy wasn't tropical upon landfall. Technically didn't really "hit" NYC like Irene or forecasted Fay either, but the RMW was so massive it didn't really matter.

The question was "tropical forecast to hit NYC" and Sandy was. It did not reach NYC as a TC, but was forecast to

[Ubuntwo]

Sandy 2012

Sandy wasn't tropical upon landfall. Technically didn't really "hit" NYC like Irene or forecasted Fay either, but the RMW was so massive it didn't really matter.

The question was "tropical forecast to hit NYC" and Sandy was. It did not reach NYC as a TC, but was forecast to

The forecast was never over NYC, though. At one point they had a track over Delmarva, at others New Jersey.

[gfsperpendicular]

Sandy wasn't tropical upon landfall. Technically didn't really "hit" NYC like Irene or forecasted Fay either, but the RMW was so massive it didn't really matter.

The question was "tropical forecast to hit NYC" and Sandy was. It did not reach NYC as a TC, but was forecast to

The forecast was never over NYC, though. At one point they had a track over Delmarva, at others New Jersey.

Yeah, Sandy's forecast track was pretty consistent and verified pretty well. Here's the closest it got to having a forecasted track over NYC:

[Aric Dunn]

You know I always thought there were a lot more buoys up this way.. lol

myabe they are just hiding...

[floridasun78]

nice area in Bahama look is tail of fay we have see if get pull into fay or stay in Bahama area

[Steve]

Didn’t Andrea ‘13 make it up here fully tropical? I only vaguely remember it.

Haha. That’s most of them.

2013 was also the first season I tracked...what a great year to get into hurricane tracking lol. The only systems I clearly remembered are Andrea (got up to the NE US), Humberto (became a hurricane before dissipating and regenerating), and Karen (prime example of how everything just failed that season).

On the subject of Fay, it looks like convection is starting to spread over the center some more.

I go back to Betsy in 1965 but I was only 1. Camille at 5. Then it was few and far between until a couple brush by’s in 84, Juan in 85 and finally 1988. Once we got out of the -amo, it’s been a ton more action.

00Z HRRR spikes Maryland for a second or two but is in a down-pulse at NJ. It’s done a good job in a general sense as has the ICON. HRRR is always near term but you don’t often have the ICON in an alliance of the best models for a given storm. Those were the two that kept it in the water whereas most other models hugged or rode the coast inland.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71000&fh=1

Anyway, maybe people more inland NY State would get the following pulse up more so than around landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Well it just crossed over into a pocket of low to mid 70s water.

seems to be doing just fine. actually deepening..

[Aric Dunn]

if the direction of the shear changes a little more out of the south.. and it is producing this much convection over marginal water.. could be a bit more of a problem..

[ozonepete]

if the direction of the shear changes a little more out of the south.. and it is producing this much convection over marginal water.. could be a bit more of a problem..

Convection remains impressive. A lot of lightning in the core...

[Aric Dunn]

if the direction of the shear changes a little more out of the south.. and it is producing this much convection over marginal water.. could be a bit more of a problem..

Convection remains impressive. A lot of lightning in the core...

yeah, though the center is still partially exposed. but if the angle of the shear changes things may get interesting.

[Steve]

You kind of have to throw it up for Fay. It consisted of some spins in the Gulf, went across Cape San Blas and in and across the SE and is on it’s way to some of the big cities. I just can’t get away from the idea that this kind of a track with something real is about worst case ever.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/TARCweather/status/1281411259896860678



 https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1281357357117652993



 https://twitter.com/TARCweather/status/1279501326846767112



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1281321907917217792

[EquusStorm]

That's a very solid convective core. I expected an entirely east-loaded raggedy system with broad, exposed centers hanging out west of the convection but this looks pretty well organized on satellite and radar both. Very impressive.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

That's a very solid convective core. I expected an entirely east-loaded raggedy system with broad, exposed centers hanging out west of the convection but this looks pretty well organized on satellite and radar both. Very impressive.

To be fair, that's the MLC that has been boosting a lot of the convection; the LLC is still to the SW of most of the convection, though some is building on the eastern side of that circulation. The storm is still tilted, but it still looks pretty impressive despite that.

[EquusStorm]

Wonder if it gets the chance to stack vertically. Clock's ticking for more organization seeing as it'll probably come ashore in a day

[GCANE]

Its still trying to keep itself organized.
Strong helicity still remains in the convection.
Good pressure drop between recon passes.
That huge injection of moisture from the fractured tropical wave did the trick.

[GCANE]

Interesing feature.
A breakoff 925mb vort off the FL east coast with high-helicity and deep convection.
Watching if this refires.

[GCANE]

00Z GFS is showing that fractured vort remaining off the SE coast for 72 hrs