ATL: FAY - Models
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cycloneye
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ATL: FAY - Models
Models only.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Peak intensity by SHIP is 57 kts.
* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL982020 07/05/20 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 36 41 45 50 52 57 57 57 55 52 49 50
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 27 22 29 31
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 34 37 39 35 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 11 6 10 11 7 14 10 16 7 16 7 17 12 14 11 19 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -4 0 -1 3 -2 3 -3 1 -2 3 0 4
SHEAR DIR 31 17 338 359 351 323 298 321 305 309 288 312 297 305 280 304 294
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.0 28.7 26.8 26.3 28.0 24.9 22.9 18.7 12.0 13.3 9.0
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 154 152 146 145 136 146 121 115 135 104 93 79 70 72 70
ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 130 129 124 123 114 122 101 95 110 89 82 73 68 70 69
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 9 6 8 5 8 5 8 5 8 3 2 0 0
700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 67 67 67 70 68 71 70 69 68 71 73 76 82 83
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 9 9 12 12 13 13 11 10 13
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -28 -32 -19 -38 -7 -14 12 23 28 8 13 9 7 45 67
200 MB DIV 29 41 -8 -8 19 5 28 -1 24 -13 20 22 45 22 52 37 31
700-850 TADV 2 1 7 7 1 2 4 1 9 2 6 2 23 12 42 42 65
LAND (KM) 106 130 93 29 -44 -229 -234 -182 -117 -69 -38 50 112 57 -28 79 105
LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.1 29.5 30.1 30.7 32.1 33.3 34.1 34.7 35.0 35.8 37.0 38.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 88.1 87.6 87.2 86.6 86.1 84.8 83.2 81.4 79.4 77.9 76.7 75.4 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 7 10 14 20 24 27 29
HEAT CONTENT 30 25 20 17 15 3 2 4 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. 22. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -3. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 16. 20. 25. 27. 32. 32. 32. 30. 27. 24. 25.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.8 88.1
** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.8% 13.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.7% 13.7% 8.6% 2.6% 0.6% 4.8% 6.2% 5.8%
Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.1% 10.7% 7.3% 4.2% 0.2% 1.7% 5.7% 1.9%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/05/2020 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 27 22 29 31
18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 25 25 23 18 25 27
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL982020 07/05/20 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 36 41 45 50 52 57 57 57 55 52 49 50
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 27 22 29 31
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 34 37 39 35 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 11 6 10 11 7 14 10 16 7 16 7 17 12 14 11 19 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -4 0 -1 3 -2 3 -3 1 -2 3 0 4
SHEAR DIR 31 17 338 359 351 323 298 321 305 309 288 312 297 305 280 304 294
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.0 28.7 26.8 26.3 28.0 24.9 22.9 18.7 12.0 13.3 9.0
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 154 152 146 145 136 146 121 115 135 104 93 79 70 72 70
ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 130 129 124 123 114 122 101 95 110 89 82 73 68 70 69
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 9 6 8 5 8 5 8 5 8 3 2 0 0
700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 67 67 67 70 68 71 70 69 68 71 73 76 82 83
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 9 9 12 12 13 13 11 10 13
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -28 -32 -19 -38 -7 -14 12 23 28 8 13 9 7 45 67
200 MB DIV 29 41 -8 -8 19 5 28 -1 24 -13 20 22 45 22 52 37 31
700-850 TADV 2 1 7 7 1 2 4 1 9 2 6 2 23 12 42 42 65
LAND (KM) 106 130 93 29 -44 -229 -234 -182 -117 -69 -38 50 112 57 -28 79 105
LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.1 29.5 30.1 30.7 32.1 33.3 34.1 34.7 35.0 35.8 37.0 38.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 88.1 87.6 87.2 86.6 86.1 84.8 83.2 81.4 79.4 77.9 76.7 75.4 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 7 10 14 20 24 27 29
HEAT CONTENT 30 25 20 17 15 3 2 4 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. 22. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -3. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 16. 20. 25. 27. 32. 32. 32. 30. 27. 24. 25.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.8 88.1
** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.8% 13.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.7% 13.7% 8.6% 2.6% 0.6% 4.8% 6.2% 5.8%
Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.1% 10.7% 7.3% 4.2% 0.2% 1.7% 5.7% 1.9%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/05/2020 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 27 22 29 31
18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 25 25 23 18 25 27
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The global models are all over the place with 98L; the exact time/location when it’ll exit the coast, and how far it’ll track from the coast. The GFS, Euro, and NAVGEM are generally similar and show it staying close to the coast but becoming a weak TS. The CMC keeps this mostly over land, while the ICON has it exit further from the coast. The ICON shows a well-defined moderate TS by 120 hours because 98L is able to get itself over the Gulf Stream.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139167
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SHIP has a moderate TS.
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL982020 07/06/20 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 21 27 30 38 42 47 49 49 45 39 34 36 35
V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 30 26 20 26 29 27
V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 32 32 33 30 35 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 12 10 14 18 13 15 10 12 12 16 11 16 10 19 22 19 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -4 -2 -2 1 -2 0 0 -2 0 3 0 2 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 335 277 274 286 294 275 302 279 293 278 289 284 284 281 307 302 343
SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.7 27.1 26.0 26.6 27.3 27.6 23.8 19.6 12.1 13.4 9.4 11.0
POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 142 136 136 145 124 111 117 125 131 97 81 70 72 69 70
ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 118 113 112 119 102 91 95 101 107 84 74 68 70 68 69
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 6 5 9 5 9 6 9 5 8 3 2 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 62 65 67 67 68 68 68 70 70 73 78 80 78 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 7 7 9 7 10 10 12 13 13 11 8 8 12 12
850 MB ENV VOR -18 -8 -2 -22 -18 -6 0 20 29 39 39 38 17 18 31 47 10
200 MB DIV -18 25 32 -7 -20 29 -9 47 9 55 0 77 11 58 17 0 1
700-850 TADV 10 4 1 2 5 2 6 5 2 2 9 13 20 22 72 18 78
LAND (KM) -109 -193 -267 -273 -251 -260 -254 -204 -160 -152 -63 37 57 27 9 31 622
LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.8 32.5 33.2 33.8 34.7 35.5 35.9 36.4 36.9 37.8 39.1 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 85.1 84.6 84.2 83.7 83.1 81.9 80.6 79.3 78.5 77.7 76.4 74.2 71.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 5 9 13 19 24 27 27 28
HEAT CONTENT 14 4 3 2 2 4 1 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. 23. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 10. 18. 22. 27. 29. 29. 25. 19. 14. 16. 15.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.9 85.1
** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 4.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/06/2020 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 30 26 20 26 29 27
18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 26 22 16 22 25 23
12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL982020 07/06/20 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 21 27 30 38 42 47 49 49 45 39 34 36 35
V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 30 26 20 26 29 27
V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 32 32 33 30 35 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 12 10 14 18 13 15 10 12 12 16 11 16 10 19 22 19 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -4 -2 -2 1 -2 0 0 -2 0 3 0 2 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 335 277 274 286 294 275 302 279 293 278 289 284 284 281 307 302 343
SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.7 27.1 26.0 26.6 27.3 27.6 23.8 19.6 12.1 13.4 9.4 11.0
POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 142 136 136 145 124 111 117 125 131 97 81 70 72 69 70
ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 118 113 112 119 102 91 95 101 107 84 74 68 70 68 69
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 6 5 9 5 9 6 9 5 8 3 2 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 62 65 67 67 68 68 68 70 70 73 78 80 78 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 7 7 9 7 10 10 12 13 13 11 8 8 12 12
850 MB ENV VOR -18 -8 -2 -22 -18 -6 0 20 29 39 39 38 17 18 31 47 10
200 MB DIV -18 25 32 -7 -20 29 -9 47 9 55 0 77 11 58 17 0 1
700-850 TADV 10 4 1 2 5 2 6 5 2 2 9 13 20 22 72 18 78
LAND (KM) -109 -193 -267 -273 -251 -260 -254 -204 -160 -152 -63 37 57 27 9 31 622
LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.8 32.5 33.2 33.8 34.7 35.5 35.9 36.4 36.9 37.8 39.1 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 85.1 84.6 84.2 83.7 83.1 81.9 80.6 79.3 78.5 77.7 76.4 74.2 71.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 5 9 13 19 24 27 27 28
HEAT CONTENT 14 4 3 2 2 4 1 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. 23. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 10. 18. 22. 27. 29. 29. 25. 19. 14. 16. 15.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.9 85.1
** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 4.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/06/2020 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 30 26 20 26 29 27
18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 26 22 16 22 25 23
12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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crownweather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 576
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
- Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
aspen wrote:The global models are all over the place with 98L; the exact time/location when it’ll exit the coast, and how far it’ll track from the coast. The GFS, Euro, and NAVGEM are generally similar and show it staying close to the coast but becoming a weak TS. The CMC keeps this mostly over land, while the ICON has it exit further from the coast. The ICON shows a well-defined moderate TS by 120 hours because 98L is able to get itself over the Gulf Stream.
The 00Z UKMET model, FWIW, is very similar to the ICON model and seems to suggest strengthening into a TS off of the Mid-Atlantic coast and a track towards Cape Cod and Nantucket on Saturday.
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Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Early mesoscale models are leaning toward 98L getting to the ocean.
HRRR 00z takes 98L off the coast of SC Wednesday morning. One benchmark for those of us on the Gulf Coast is that the 00z HRRR blows up the feeder band, boundary line tomorrow after 19z/3pm CDT. Its 01Z (only goes out to 18) shows lots of bubbling off the GA and SC coasts tomorrow afternoon. FWIW, 00z HRRR had it offshore by 30 hours.
NAM 3km goes out to 8am EDT Thursday morning. It keeps most of the worst squalls and weather offshore as it hugs the coast. It's in the northern Outer Banks at this point @ 1008mb - so it's not stalled out, but it's certainly not moving all that fast.
NAM 12km goes out to Friday 8:00am EDT. It has the storm just offshore of North Carolina.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=84
NAM 32km goes out to Friday 8:00am EDT where it has it at 1006mb and just offshore of the northern NC coastline. It doesn't go farther out, but it looks to stay close to the Chesapeake Bay
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=84
HRRR 00z takes 98L off the coast of SC Wednesday morning. One benchmark for those of us on the Gulf Coast is that the 00z HRRR blows up the feeder band, boundary line tomorrow after 19z/3pm CDT. Its 01Z (only goes out to 18) shows lots of bubbling off the GA and SC coasts tomorrow afternoon. FWIW, 00z HRRR had it offshore by 30 hours.
NAM 3km goes out to 8am EDT Thursday morning. It keeps most of the worst squalls and weather offshore as it hugs the coast. It's in the northern Outer Banks at this point @ 1008mb - so it's not stalled out, but it's certainly not moving all that fast.
NAM 12km goes out to Friday 8:00am EDT. It has the storm just offshore of North Carolina.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=84
NAM 32km goes out to Friday 8:00am EDT where it has it at 1006mb and just offshore of the northern NC coastline. It doesn't go farther out, but it looks to stay close to the Chesapeake Bay
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=84
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
0z GFS still has that center reformation, but it ends up just far enough east that it doesn't get trapped over land. Makes landfall on central Long Island.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Phasing with a negative-tilt shortwave and a pull of Carib + GOM moisture when it gets close to Delaware.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
If this runs up Chesapeake Bay, Long Island could get hammered.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Keeping a close eye on this.
When it gets close to the mouth of the Bay, GFS is currently showing a weak negative-tilt trof just to the west with a strong trof over the Great Lakes.
A moderate 250mb jet will be over this at that time.
Stay tuned for updates.
When it gets close to the mouth of the Bay, GFS is currently showing a weak negative-tilt trof just to the west with a strong trof over the Great Lakes.
A moderate 250mb jet will be over this at that time.
Stay tuned for updates.
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-
CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1975
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
By aspen's request, here is the 12z UKMET.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 34.5N 75.4W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2020 72 34.5N 75.4W 1007 34
0000UTC 11.07.2020 84 35.9N 73.4W 1003 34
1200UTC 11.07.2020 96 37.3N 72.1W 997 42
0000UTC 12.07.2020 108 41.2N 69.4W 991 39
1200UTC 12.07.2020 120 43.3N 66.3W 991 38
0000UTC 13.07.2020 132 47.1N 63.2W 993 32
1200UTC 13.07.2020 144 49.7N 60.4W 994 34
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 34.5N 75.4W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2020 72 34.5N 75.4W 1007 34
0000UTC 11.07.2020 84 35.9N 73.4W 1003 34
1200UTC 11.07.2020 96 37.3N 72.1W 997 42
0000UTC 12.07.2020 108 41.2N 69.4W 991 39
1200UTC 12.07.2020 120 43.3N 66.3W 991 38
0000UTC 13.07.2020 132 47.1N 63.2W 993 32
1200UTC 13.07.2020 144 49.7N 60.4W 994 34
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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