BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS FORMED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey
northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and
Long Island Sound.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is
forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, and move
inland over the northeast United States on Saturday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and
Friday. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on
Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along
and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into
southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result
in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward
through the warning area Friday night.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have
shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North
Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer
Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the
center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and
that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east
and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the
system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity
of 40 kt.
Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an
area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental
conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday.
After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the
mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of
the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay
should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or
Saturday.
Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a
highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally
northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic
and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model
guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close
to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center
reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the
dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model
fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side
of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is
indicated in the model fields.
The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the
mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.
Key Messages:
1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS FORMED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey
northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and
Long Island Sound.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is
forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, and move
inland over the northeast United States on Saturday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and
Friday. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on
Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along
and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into
southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result
in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward
through the warning area Friday night.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have
shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North
Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer
Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the
center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and
that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east
and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the
system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity
of 40 kt.
Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an
area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental
conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday.
After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the
mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of
the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay
should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or
Saturday.
Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a
highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally
northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic
and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model
guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close
to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center
reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the
dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model
fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side
of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is
indicated in the model fields.
The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the
mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.
Key Messages:
1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown