EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/P4SiZgP.png

Western side of the storm is looking pretty nasty on satellite imagery.

Looks like he’s trying one last time to intensify, even by a little bit. Impressive that Douglas is still firing off convection and trying to wrap it around the center.

[aspen]

Old microwave pass shows an almost complete eyewall.

[NDG]

All I know is that I'm glad I am not a gambler, I would had lost all my money when a few days ago betting against the Euro when showing a hurricane potentially impacting the Hawaiian Islands coming in from the east when the PDO is not positive and there is no El Nino.
This is historic.

[Yellow Evan]

If this wraps around we could see a Cat 2 again.

[Ed_2001]

Looks like the inner core of Douglas is barely licking the northern tip of Oahu. Imagine the weather is probably getting rough there, but not the worst the hurricane could have offered. However it looks like the storm has been moving more west over the past hour and if it continues it could still leave Kauai at risk of getting the eyewall.

Disclaimer that I am far from an expert, just a less than amateur observer

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the inner core of Douglas is barely licking the northern tip of Oahu. Imagine the weather is probably getting rough there, but not the worst the hurricane could have offered. However it looks like the storm has been moving more west over the past hour and if it continues it could still leave Kauai at risk of getting the eyewall.

Disclaimer that I am far from an expert, just a less than amateur observer

Other then some rain the big story on the north shore is the wave wash over on Kamehameha Hwy, hardly any wind up here.

[OahuWahine]

I can't speak for the folks on the North Shore but central Oahu is getting nothing. It's dead calm right now. It was a little breezy this morning but nothing since.

[Ed_2001]

983.2mb extrapolated pressure...looks to be slightly stronger than last recon but waiting for dropsonde data. Looks like solid hurricane-force winds even in the SE quadrant now. With the possible exception of Kauai, looks like Hawaii in general dodged a bullet.

[Yellow Evan]

SFMR alone support up to 85. Very lucky to Maui acted as a shield that protected Oahu just enough for this to divert north.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the inner core of Douglas is barely licking the northern tip of Oahu. Imagine the weather is probably getting rough there, but not the worst the hurricane could have offered. However it looks like the storm has been moving more west over the past hour and if it continues it could still leave Kauai at risk of getting the eyewall.

Disclaimer that I am far from an expert, just a less than amateur observer

Other then some rain the big story on the north shore is the wave wash over on Kamehameha Hwy, hardly any wind up here.

Yeah I just got back from Hauula and Kahuku. Definitely TS conditions present and a lot of wave washup. Was worth the trip and man the ocean was super rough. Glad I got to see it and glad it didnt make landfall. The houses on the strip would received very extensive damage.

[OahuWahine]

Looks like the inner core of Douglas is barely licking the northern tip of Oahu. Imagine the weather is probably getting rough there, but not the worst the hurricane could have offered. However it looks like the storm has been moving more west over the past hour and if it continues it could still leave Kauai at risk of getting the eyewall.

Disclaimer that I am far from an expert, just a less than amateur observer

Other then some rain the big story on the north shore is the wave wash over on Kamehameha Hwy, hardly any wind up here.

Yeah I just got back from Hauula and Kahuku. Definitely TS conditions present and a lot of wave washup. Was worth the trip and man the ocean was super rough. Glad I got to see it and glad it didnt make landfall. The houses on the strip would received very extensive damage.

Wish I could've gotten up there but I don't drive. Guess I gotta catch the next one

[Yellow Evan]

94 FL 86 SFMR seals any doubt that Douglas is a Cat 2.

[Yellow Evan]

Can someone explain why we have recon when the data is being ignored?

564
WTPA62 PHFO 270710
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
910 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...900 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING JUST NORTH OF OAHU AND
APPROACHING KAUAI...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai radar
as the tropical cyclone moves west-northwest just north of Oahu. A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently flying in Douglas, and will
continue to provide valuable data as Douglas moves away from the
Molokai radar, and will be poorly sampled by the Kauai radar.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 158.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Houston/Birchard

[Kingarabian]

Can someone explain why we have recon when the data is being ignored?

564
WTPA62 PHFO 270710
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
910 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...900 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING JUST NORTH OF OAHU AND
APPROACHING KAUAI...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai radar
as the tropical cyclone moves west-northwest just north of Oahu. A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently flying in Douglas, and will
continue to provide valuable data as Douglas moves away from the
Molokai radar, and will be poorly sampled by the Kauai radar.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 158.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Houston/Birchard

Same center that issues different fixes than what recon shows. Some eyebrow raising stuff but I'm not surprised.

[Yellow Evan]

103 FL on latest pass with 85 SFMR. Could argue for as high as 90 knots here but 85 is good.

[Yellow Evan]

Still not sure what supports 80.

967
WTPA62 PHFO 270808
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1097 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...1000 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS LOCATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF KAUAI
INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY ...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai radar
as the tropical cyclone moves west-northwestward just north of the
western end of the main Hawaiian Island chain. A Hurricane Hunter
aircraft, which is currently flying in Douglas, indicates it has
intensified slightly during the past few hours. In addition, the
radar and aircraft are showing short-term wobbles in the forward
motion of the tropical cyclone. The Hurricane Hunter's will
continue to provide valuable data as Douglas moves away from the
Molokai radar, and it will be poorly sampled by the Kauai radar.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM HST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 158.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Houston/Birchard

[Kingarabian]

Maybe one last hurrah?

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe one last hurrah?

It’s not particularly well organized at this point. It’s big run already occurred, doing so from 3z-6z. Pressures are even rising according to recon.

[Yellow Evan]

and recon confirms a 987 mbar pressure so nvm on the rising bit.

[wx98]

Pressure holding steady in the upper 980s with the last several recon passes. It’s bending back due west to the north of Kauai. Amazing how the apparent orographic effect steered this right around the islands. Guess we’ll have to call this the Douglas Bypass