EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Bocadude85]

We'll see where it's standing in an hour or so but I doubt much of Oahu gets anything out of this other than the north shore. So that's good news.

Agreed, if this motion continues the eyewall may even be able to avoid the north shore.

[Kingarabian]

We'll see where it's standing in an hour or so but I doubt much of Oahu gets anything out of this other than the north shore. So that's good news.

Agreed, if this motion continues the eyewall may even be able to avoid the north shore.

Yeah fortunately that due west motion is turning out to be only temporarily.

[Kingarabian]

Convection is also warming around that CDO type thing.

[supercane4867]

Kauai could have some issues down the road if Douglas maintains its intensity longer than expected. That’s also the climatologically plausible place for hurricane landfalls in Hawaii.

[Bocadude85]

The 18Z HWRF is forecasting another round of westerly motion right around Oahu, will be a close call with the southern eyewall

[Kingarabian]

I think shear is hitting it pretty good right now. Convection really warming

[Ed_2001]

From an untrained viewpoint it actually looks to be consolidating again over the last few frames. Considering how rare it is for a full fledged hurricane to pass close to Hawaii, it would hugely lucky if the worst of it happens to stay *just* offshore. We are really threading a needle here.

[Yellow Evan]

Non-zero chance next Recon (if able to take off) finds the storm decoupled.

[wxman57]

Some zoomed-in obs with Douglas just offshore. Nothing strong indicated, though these are only hourly obs. East end of Molokai is closest to TS wind bands.

[Bocadude85]

Some zoomed-in obs with Douglas just offshore. Nothing strong indicated, though these are only hourly obs. East end of Molokai is closest to TS wind bands.

http://wxman57.com/images/obs2.JPG

Barely a breeze here in Honolulu, not expecting much more then what we are currently experiencing.

[wxman57]

Good Hawaii radar loop from Brian McNoldy's page. Squalls may miss Oahu to the east (heavier ones). Satellite indicates squalls on west side are diminishing.

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/douglas20/Douglas_26-28Jul20_hawaii.gif

[supercane4867]

The eye is becoming more defined again on both IR and visible imagery.

[wxman57]

Was just looking at a Honolulu radar loop at the office (remotely). Looks like Oahu is going to be fine. There isn't much west of the eyewall now, so if the eyewall misses you, then you'll be OK.

[Frank2]

Looks much better for Hawaii than 12 hours ago - that 280 or 290 heading is doing it's job, and in fact the last few radar images make it appear to be moving more towards a 300 heading.

[Kazmit]

From loops it looks like Douglass is being steered by the mountains of Hawaii. Started gaining more latitude as it got close to the islands.

[Kingarabian]

Western side of the storm is looking pretty nasty on satellite imagery.

[Ed_2001]

I wonder what recon would find if there was one right now, it’s looking much better on satellite imagery over the past hour and definitely no indication of weakening yet.

[Kingarabian]

I'm thinking with the way it's looking now we could see some action.

[Bocadude85]

I'm thinking with the way it's looking now we could see some action.

You thinking some of those heavier squalls are going to rotate southward over Oahu?

[Kingarabian]

I'm thinking with the way it's looking now we could see some action.

You thinking some of those heavier squalls are going to rotate southward over Oahu?

Well with this presentation there's a better chance compared to two hours ago.