ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

If you look on WV imagery, it appears that is an ULL just ahead of Gonzalo, which is both shearing and shoving dry air into the system. Given the airmass advecting into the core of the system, the small circulation is probably on the verge of opening up.

[Visioen]

My takeaway from that is that the Dvorak technique is outdated and a new one is needed--one that takes higher resolution of satellite, along with how much more we know now vs the 1970s into account.

Feeding an AI satellite pictures of TC's together with their strenght based on recon comes to mind.

[bob rulz]

Seems the NHC is on board with this not re-strengthening significantly. The Hurricane Watch has been canceled and that wouldn't happen unless they were pretty confident.

[EquusStorm]

NHC probably won't dramatically lower intensity forecast all at once so as to avoid wild advisory-to-advisory swings, but I am starting to highly doubt this even makes it TO the Windward Islands as more than a wave

[abajan]

Seems the NHC is on board with this not re-strengthening significantly. The Hurricane Watch has been canceled and that wouldn't happen unless they were pretty confident.

The NHC neither issues watches nor cancels them. It's the authorities in the various countries and territories who do that.

[EquusStorm]

35kt at 5pm, only forecasting a possible peak of 40kt and thinking Gonzalo is unlikely to win out over the dry air. Recon found a few low level swirls and 41kt FL winds.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

I am actually a little disappointed here in Barbados was hoping we would have some rains and a little wind here tomorrow. Nothing like Tomas tho

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Some convection is firing up it seems

[HurricaneFrances04]

The same pulsing pattern we've seen for the last 24 hours

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

As this season seems intent on proving - if there's a spin and some moisture, there's a chance.

I wouldn't count out Gonzalo yet; it's still in that moisture pocket and still has another dmax to go through; and, it's small enough to where even small flare-ups of convection are important for its intensity.

Gonzalo is down, but perhaps most crucially, not out.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Poor lil G...he tried.

[toad strangler]

Gonzalo is the 2020 MDR trailblazer. Sacrificing himself for the onslaught to come.

[AnnularCane]

Gonzalo is the 2020 MDR trailblazer. Sacrificing himself for the onslaught to come.

Brave little guy.

[RT23]

He maybe down but definitely showing spirit right now

[gfsperpendicular]

Similar to last night, he has managed to put together a dense little blob over the center. This storm is pretty resilient!

[supercane4867]

Recon says it’s still alive.

[wx98]

Recon says it’s still alive.

Barely

[Chris90]

Gonzalo is like: "This convective burst is for my haters!"

Recon found 47kts with the SFMR but they're flying at 925mb and the corresponding flight level wind was like 17kts...

So I'm not sure how much life this dude really has left nor am I sure that he really deserves TS status anymore.

He keeps surprising though so I'll keep watching. I'd still be on my guard if I was on the islands. Just in case.

[northjaxpro]

Gonzalo is the most resilient storm I have seen in a long time. I love this tiny cyclone, which keeps .on going until he says I have gave it my all!!!

[floridasun78]

Similar to last night, he has managed to put together a dense little blob over the center. This storm is pretty resilient!
https://i.imgur.com/TQ9EsRl.jpg

if you look loop you see spin to his east not sure if that center remove to east of the blob