ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

I feel bad for this little guy. He put up a good fight but the dry air is proving to be too much for him. We’ll see if he can recover like he did yesterday but it’s not looking good.

I think he’s served his purpose and is ready to be put out of his misery.

Or he might try to regenerate in the Gulf like what the 00z CMC is suggesting. If Tropical Wave Gonzalo can survive through the Caribbean, maybe that will be a legitimate possibility down the line.

[tiger_deF]

It may be a little premature to toll the bells for Gonzalo, he's still firing off just enough deep convection to remain a TS, and while he's expected to dissipate in a few days he's already far overperformed the models

[TheProfessor]

It may be a little premature to toll the bells for Gonzalo, he's still firing off just enough deep convection to remain a TS, and while he's expected to dissipate in a few days he's already far overperformed the models

This has been the cycle with Gonzalo though. He forms real deep convection over his center, becomes a nice CDO, but then isn't quite able to improve it's structure more than that before it collapses and he starts over.

[RT23]

He isnt giving up yet!! Hot towers in the last hr

[MarioProtVI]

1009 mb. This thing is toast and is likely gonna dissipate before the islands.

[northjaxpro]

It may be a little premature to toll the bells for Gonzalo, he's still firing off just enough deep convection to remain a TS, and while he's expected to dissipate in a few days he's already far overperformed the models

This has been the cycle with Gonzalo though. He forms real deep convection over his center, becomes a nice CDO, but then isn't quite able to improve it's structure more than that before it collapses and he starts over.

I am a big admirer of Gonzalo's amazing perseverance and tenacity. I have commented enough on this thread about this cyclone.

I would have thought by now people would stop trying to write Gonzalo's eulogy on here. Look, just appreciate how these tiny cyclones behave, which is indeed a fascinating study of its own. I would not be shocked at all to see Gonzalo pulse again and even attain hurricane strength on his approach to the Southern Windwards this weekend.

Regardless, for me Gonzalo to this poìnt is easily the most interesting and fun storm which has been tracked and analyzed. I love this little guy, as long as he does no extreme harm to those in the islands!

[CrazyC83]

1009 mb. This thing is toast and is likely gonna dissipate before the islands.

It is likely the 998 mb peak was an overestimate even if it was 55 kt (I'd say 998 would equal about 70 kt given the size, ridge and location).

[MarioProtVI]

1009 mb. This thing is toast and is likely gonna dissipate before the islands.

It is likely the 998 mb peak was an overestimate even if it was 55 kt (I'd say 998 would equal about 70 kt given the size, ridge and location).

Personally I would peg the peak at 60-65 kt/999 mb.

[aspen]

1009 mb. This thing is toast and is likely gonna dissipate before the islands.

Looks half dead already. It might stubbornly hold onto TC status before reaching the islands, but it will dissipate well before the official NHC forecast has it do so.

[wx98]

Now it seems like about 40-45 kt, with pressure at 1008, according to recon

[abajan]

Looking less healthy again after last night's attempt at a more well defined CDO. At this point I would heavily favor this to dissipate within the next few days or so, which is in line with the NHC forecast.

It may well dissipate within the next few hours or so.
(Well, we'll see what recon says.)

[storminabox]

I feel bad for this little guy. He put up a good fight but the dry air is proving to be too much for him. We’ll see if he can recover like he did yesterday but it’s not looking good.

I think he’s served his purpose and is ready to be put out of his misery.

Or he might try to regenerate in the Gulf like what the 00z CMC is suggesting. If Tropical Wave Gonzalo can survive through the Caribbean, maybe that will be a legitimate possibility down the line.

That’s true. He became the MDR TC that so many claimed was necessary for us to have an active season. I just wish Gonzalo was officially labeled as a hurricane, which he more than likely was two days ago. Oh well. Still an impressive cyclone that I immensely enjoyed tracking.

[northjaxpro]

I feel bad for this little guy. He put up a good fight but the dry air is proving to be too much for him. We’ll see if he can recover like he did yesterday but it’s not looking good.

I think he’s served his purpose and is ready to be put out of his misery.

Or he might try to regenerate in the Gulf like what the 00z CMC is suggesting. If Tropical Wave Gonzalo can survive through the Caribbean, maybe that will be a legitimate possibility down the line.

That’s true. He became the MDR TC that so many claimed was necessary for us to have an active season. I just wish Gonzalo was officially labeled as a hurricane, which he more than likely was two days ago. Oh well. Still an impressive cyclone that I immensely enjoyed tracking.

He was briefly a cane Wednesday, and it is my hope in post analysis that NHC will officially upgrade him to that.

[Ubuntwo]

I think he’s served his purpose and is ready to be put out of his misery.

Or he might try to regenerate in the Gulf like what the 00z CMC is suggesting. If Tropical Wave Gonzalo can survive through the Caribbean, maybe that will be a legitimate possibility down the line.

That’s true. He became the MDR TC that so many claimed was necessary for us to have an active season. I just wish Gonzalo was officially labeled as a hurricane, which he more than likely was two days ago. Oh well. Still an impressive cyclone that I immensely enjoyed tracking.

He was briefly a cane Wednesday, and in post analysis, will be officially upgraded to that.

Doubt it, the NHC likes to have estimates of some sort to back their intensities. In fact no estimate for this storm ever exceeded 60kt, with more clustered around 55kt. So there's nothing for them to base hurricane intensity off.

[northjaxpro]

That’s true. He became the MDR TC that so many claimed was necessary for us to have an active season. I just wish Gonzalo was officially labeled as a hurricane, which he more than likely was two days ago. Oh well. Still an impressive cyclone that I immensely enjoyed tracking.

He was briefly a cane Wednesday, and in post analysis, will be officially upgraded to that.

Doubt it, the NHC likes to have estimates of some sort to back their intensities. In fact no estimate for this storm ever exceeded 60kt, with more clustered around 55kt. So there's nothing for them to base hurricane intensity off.

You have come after me on these threads before Ubuntwo. Lol.. I enjoy people who want to challenge my thoughts. You are entitled to your òpinion and I respectfully disagree with you. Let us just leave it at that!

[RT23]

So is he down for the count?

[abajan]

So is he down for the count?

Certainly looks that way. And I suspect its center (or what's left of it) will pass over Tobago.

[RT23]

So is he down for the count?

Certainly looks that way. And I suspect its center (or what's left of it) will pass over Tobago.

Yup certainly looks like Gonzalo is out of our reach !

[Hammy]

That’s true. He became the MDR TC that so many claimed was necessary for us to have an active season. I just wish Gonzalo was officially labeled as a hurricane, which he more than likely was two days ago. Oh well. Still an impressive cyclone that I immensely enjoyed tracking.

He was briefly a cane Wednesday, and in post analysis, will be officially upgraded to that.

Doubt it, the NHC likes to have estimates of some sort to back their intensities. In fact no estimate for this storm ever exceeded 60kt, with more clustered around 55kt. So there's nothing for them to base hurricane intensity off.

My takeaway from that is that the Dvorak technique is outdated and a new one is needed--one that takes higher resolution of satellite, along with how much more we know now vs the 1970s into account.

[1900hurricane]

Don't think this one is going to make it much longer.