ATL: GONZALO - Models

[supercane4867]

18z HMON ends up south of Jamaica.

[SFLcane]

Intense hurricane over the islands.

[Aric Dunn]

lol the 18z euro is pretty much dead before the sun even rises..

[PTrackerLA]

lol the 18z euro is pretty much dead before the sun even rises..

Euro has been terrible for TC's so far this year. It's ensembles were favoring a strong hurricane for several runs with Cristobal. Could be due to the less upper air data from aircraft but something to keep in mind for this season.

[Aric Dunn]

lol the 18z euro is pretty much dead before the sun even rises..

Euro has been terrible for TC's so far this year. It's ensembles were favoring a strong hurricane for several runs with Cristobal. Could be due to the less upper air data from aircraft but something to keep in mind for this season.

yeah it has been less than useful.

[Cpv17]

The GFS has been worse imo. It’s not developing anything out there. Not even any phantoms that it used to have all the time.

[aspen]

The GFS has been worse imo. It’s not developing anything out there. Not even any phantoms that it used to have all the time.

I am so surprised it’s not going bonkers with that AEW coming off of Africa in a few days, the one that the CMC and ECMWF turn into a hurricane. You know something’s wrong with the GFS when it doesn’t want to spawn phantom hurricanes. Maybe constantly busting in the EPac made it just give up on trying to predict any strong upcoming storm.

[TheProfessor]

A slight uptick in intensity with the 0z guidance tonight. Decent consensus that Gonzalo will be come a Cat-2 hurricane. The end of the TCVN tracks are giving me some hurricane Matthew vibes.

[Cpv17]

The GFS has been worse imo. It’s not developing anything out there. Not even any phantoms that it used to have all the time.

I am so surprised it’s not going bonkers with that AEW coming off of Africa in a few days, the one that the CMC and ECMWF turn into a hurricane. You know something’s wrong with the GFS when it doesn’t want to spawn phantom hurricanes. Maybe constantly busting in the EPac made it just give up on trying to predict any strong upcoming storm.

Something is definitely wrong with the GFS. I’ve never seen it be so lost regarding the tropics.

[NDG]

13 out of 20 GFS ensemble members show Gonzalo making it through the Caribbean and into the GOM.

[SFLcane]

lol the 18z euro is pretty much dead before the sun even rises..

Notice the globals all show dissipation. Tricky forecast

[NDG]

Did somebody earlier today mentioned an East Coast Trough for this later this weekend into early next week? It has all disappeared

[ColdMiser123]

For the first time, the new ICON is now deepening Gonzalo as it heads through the Caribbean. Still consistent on development of the following AEW as well.

[floridasun78]

weatherman show gfs waking system in carribbean

[Cpv17]

Did somebody earlier today mentioned an East Coast Trough for this later this weekend into early next week? It has all disappeared

https://i.imgur.com/8PwgnnV.gif
https://i.imgur.com/tQwagLs.gif

Yikes

[TheStormExpert]

For the first time, the new ICON is now deepening Gonzalo as it heads through the Caribbean. Still consistent on development of the following AEW as well.

Better off trusting the CMC at this point. I’d like to see how Gonzalo looks in the morning as he looks horrible right now.

[PTrackerLA]

00z GFS coming in quite a bit stronger. Down to 987mb at 66hrs.

edit: weakens to 996mb at 78 hrs, same intensity as 18z.

[ColdMiser123]

0z GFS a tick stronger than 18z and a touch SW as well at hour 96. It will still be a close call with Hispaniola, but it has a little more room compared to 18z.

At hour 114, this run will once again show landfall on Hispaniola.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like maybe the GFS is shifting towards an Hispaniola landfall after entering the Caribbean, that is important to the GOM and SEUS as a hit to Hispaniola will be the death of Gonzalo but if it somehow goes north of Hispaniola then Florida may have to watch this, but if south of Hispaniola the GOM is going to have to keep an eye on this

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like maybe the GFS is shifting towards an Hispaniola landfall after entering the Caribbean, that is important to the GOM and SEUS as a hit to Hispaniola will be the death of Gonzalo but if it somehow goes north of Hispaniola then Florida may have to watch this, but if south of Hispaniola the GOM is going to have to keep an eye on this

No chance this goes north of Hispaniola at its latitude. It’ll likely go over or south of the island.