ATL: HANNA - Models

[HoustonFrog]

Looks like the 12z HWRF initialized well and this takes it straight into Rockport area.

What does that mean for Houston?

[Steve]

CMC also has a low coming up through Florida, but it's less defined than what you see on the ICON. So I don't know.

Here's the HWRF right about at landfall. I'm not sure I'm buying the 991mb. Landfall is just after midnight Saturday morning.



Here's the HMON. It landfalls a little south of the HWRF at 975mb. That seems like a longshot, but the hurricane models often overdo pressure. This is about 4am Saturday morning.

[SoupBone]

Looks like the 12z HWRF initialized well and this takes it straight into Rockport area.

What does that mean for Houston?

Some rain and a little wind. Nothing too crazy, but maybe some localized flooding on low level roads and some scattered power outages.

[davidiowx]

Looks like the 12z HWRF initialized well and this takes it straight into Rockport area.

What does that mean for Houston?

The HWRF brings some decent rains to the city of Houston and points to the SW of there. HMON brings maybe some scattered showers and higher tides but that's about it. Both models shifted South from their 06z runs.

[SoupBone]

The EURO has seriously bcked off of the much rain forecast from yesterday.



And QPF as well.

[bohai]

I live about 60 miles NW of San Antonio. Our POP for Saturday has gone from 90% to only 60% Essentially no rain here in July to date, only 0.06". And June only had 1.65" Bone dry. So lets hope the models are incorrect on bringing heavier amounts of rain to STX

[Cpv17]

I live about 60 miles NW of San Antonio. Our POP for Saturday has gone from 90% to only 60% Essentially no rain here in July to date, only 0.06". And June only had 1.65" Bone dry. So lets hope the models are incorrect on bringing heavier amounts of rain to STX

It’s frustrating when models show your area consistently getting hit with good amounts of rain and then it starts shifting when it’s just a couple days away. Cannot tell you how many times that’s happened to me here in southeast Texas the past few months. It also might happen to me again with td8. I might be too far north.

[NDG]

The GFS continues to have a serious issue with soon to be Hannah, it continues to show it falling apart before making landfall, its medium to long range forecast did better with this system than its short to med range right now.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF

[hicksta]

Has the GFS or CMC updated?

[South Texas Storms]

18z Euro came in much stronger getting it down to 992 mb while inland across south Texas.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to have a serious issue with soon to be Hannah, it continues to show it falling apart before making landfall, its medium to long range forecast did better with this system than its short to med range right now.

The model is showing dry air from a dIssipating ULL to the SW keeping this in check. Seems reasonable though probably a bit overdone, let’s see what happens:

[Steve]

The GFS continues to have a serious issue with soon to be Hannah, it continues to show it falling apart before making landfall, its medium to long range forecast did better with this system than its short to med range right now.

The model is showing dry air from a dIssipating ULL to the SW keeping this at check. Seems reasonable though probably a bit overdone, let’s see what happens:

https://i.postimg.cc/4dXhCHTX/gfs-mid-RH-watl-4.png

You think? GFS has barely shown any closed isobars all week or last weekend. I'm not a GFS basher except when it earns the bashing. It sucked for Fay, and it's sucked for 8. Heavily.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs lol is so up and down

[Steve]

00Z models will be coming in the next 3 hours. HRRR 00z is running now. At about 9 am tomorrow (14z) you have another pulse with the strongest convection in a line south of New Orleans which could easily flood parts of the city if it holds together onshore, and then along the TX Coast. What's interesting is that HRRR has it moving west pretty steadily throughout the day tomorrow. We'll see how that goes. This run goes through 36 hours, so we'll see where it thinks it will be at 7am Saturday morning @ the end of its run.



Edit to say I wonder if the feeder moisture to the east stays behind and that's what CMC and ICON have been spinning up along the North Gulf Monday and Tuesday. ?

[Astromanía]

I notice EURO is showing more rain to NE Mexico and less to STX everytime, it's because the potential landfall is forecast to be more south every time?, I don't understand, could someone explain me what is happening? I was expecting little to almost no rain in my city Monterrey but everytime I see the rain models they are showing more qnd more to my area especifically EURO

[Steve]

I notice EURO is showing more rain to NE Mexico and less to STX everytime, it's because the potential landfall is forecast to be more south every time?, I don't understand, could someone explain me what is happening? I was expecting little to almost no rain in my city Monterrey but everytime I see the rain models they are showing more qnd more to my area especifically EURO

Some of the models show a south-weighted storm. So that's probably part of it. But also, if you look at the NHC's track, you can see why. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

[Astromanía]

I'm scared because right now Euro is forecasting more rain for my area than what it showed last year with Fernand, i think with Fernand it showed a maximum of 144 mm to end actually with 350mm in my city and right now we are expecting 214 mm for this system acording with that model which every time show more rain, this morning it showed 68 mm for my area

[Steve]

I'm scared because right now Euro is forecasting more rain for my area than what it showed last year with Fernand, i think with Fernand it showed a maximum of 144 mm to end actually with 350mm in my city and right now we are expecting 216 mm for this system acording with that model which every time show more rain, this morning it showed 68 mm for my area

Be careful. I've never been there, but I know the city is sort of bisected by a river. So if you or your car is in a lowlying area, you have to be mindful of flash floods. Best wishes that it's just a lot of tropical rains and not too much damage down there.

[Astromanía]

My city it's vulnerable for tropical cyclones, mountains around the whole city and many rivers crossing the Metropolitan área, the risk it's very high for mudslides and overflooding rivers plus a poor sewers