EPAC: DOUGLAS - Models

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS mean shifted south. 80% of the members still show an impact somewhere. The window for this to escape while still there, is closing.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah at this lead time it’d be a historic error for this to escape completely. If this was 5 days out or more and that was the spread it’d be a different story.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON NE Big Island landfall.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS shifted north and has a strong TS Oahu landfall.



Definitely more spread today. But the overall thinking remains the same, Douglas will climb WNW and then eventually get shoved back west, it's just timing.

[Kingarabian]

18z HMON more south but much weaker upon landfall:

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF skirts Oahu and hits Kauai:


18z Euro big shift north and has a Oahu TS landfall.

[Bocadude85]

18z HWRF skirts Oahu and hits Kauai:
https://i.imgur.com/J45ee95.gif

18z Euro big shift north and has a Oahu TS landfall.

Will this northward trend continue or will the models start shifting back south, as far as I know Oahu has never been hit by a hurricane or TS, especially from the East.

[CrazyC83]

The Big Island would likely chew any storm apart, so the biggest threat to Oahu would be for it to turn north just before the Big Island then thread the needle?

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF skirts Oahu and hits Kauai:
https://i.imgur.com/J45ee95.gif

18z Euro big shift north and has a Oahu TS landfall.

Will this northward trend continue or will the models start shifting back south, as far as I know Oahu has never been hit by a hurricane or TS, especially from the East.

Yeah super tough landfall to execute. 18z EPS also shifted north but the majority of the members continue to show a Hawaii landfall. Reason for the shift north is due to Douglas's present heading taking it north of the forecast track. Right now it's rounding the ridge moving @ WNW.
From my understanding the way this hits land is if the ridge restrengthens.

Despite the northern adjustments, the models still show the ridge re-strengthening and shunting Douglas back west. When and where is a big question mark. The islands are a small target.

[Kingarabian]

The Big Island would likely chew any storm apart, so the biggest threat to Oahu would be for it to turn north just before the Big Island then thread the needle?

Yeah that's the only way to hit Oahu or Kauai without an Iniki/Lane type track. Olivia 2018 wasn't too far off.

[Kingarabian]

00z ICON continues to bury this into the Big Island.

00z GFS shifts further north but comes very close to striking Kauai.


00z UKMET shifted south and has either a Molokai or Oahu landfall.

[Bocadude85]

00z ICON continues to bury this into the Big Island.

00z GFS shifts further north but comes very close to striking Kauai.
https://i.imgur.com/Dy5Krd4.png

00z UKMET shifted south and has either a Molokai or Oahu landfall.

Yea decent shift north from the GFS, but then a decent shift south from the UKMET which now has a Maui landfall with Douglas passing just south of Oahu.

[Kingarabian]

00z ICON continues to bury this into the Big Island.

00z GFS shifts further north but comes very close to striking Kauai.
https://i.imgur.com/Dy5Krd4.png

00z UKMET shifted south and has either a Molokai or Oahu landfall.

Yea decent shift north from the GFS, but then a decent shift south from the UKMET which now has a Maui landfall with Douglas passing just south of Oahu.

Yeah. CMC also shifted back north and has it passing through the Maui/Big Island channel.

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF brushes Kauai to the north.

00z HMON shifted north and has a Molokai/Maui hurricane landfall.

[Bocadude85]

0z Euro with a Maui landfall, seems to be a touch south of the 18z.

[Kingarabian]

0z Euro with a Maui landfall, seems to be a touch south of the 18z.

Decent south shift on the 00z Euro for a Cat.1 hurricane landfall.

[Kingarabian]

00z model suite ummary:

HWRF/GFS - clear Hawaii to the north but they clip Kauai. This is the climo path for these type of systems.

UKMET/Euro/HMON - First initial landfall would be Maui.

CMC - Appears to be a Big Island landfall.

ICON - Big Island landfall.

[Kingarabian]

00z GEFS is well south of the operational.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS, maybe 4 ensembles miss.. Barely.


Friday will be a crucial model day in regards to this system.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS a hair south and scrapes Oahu and Kauai: