EPAC: DOUGLAS - Models

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS/HWRF clear Hawaii to the North

12z UKMET slight shift back north Kauai TS landfall.

12z Euro also shifted north with a likely Oahu and Kauai landfall.

12z HMON very close call with Oahu as a hurricane and it could be a landfall at some point.

12z ICON and 12z CMC Big Island/Maui landfalls

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS still heavily favors a Hawaii hit. Only 4-5 members based on this graphic show Douglas safely clearing all the Islands.


12z GEFS continues to be south of the operational GFS and none of the members clear Hawaii.


Can't find the 12z UKMET ensembles but here is the 00z:


12z GEPS(canadian ensembles):

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON shifts north and hits Maui County and Oahu:


All that left is the Canadian.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS sticking with barely clearing the islands to the north:

[Kingarabian]

18z HMON shifts south and hits Oahu as a borderline Cat.2 hurricane:


Also strikes Kauai as a Cat.1.

18z HWRF continues to clear the Islands.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is a shifted back south for a strong TS Oahu landfall.

[Kingarabian]

00z model package starting. Let's see if the models can clear this out of Hawaiis path.

00z ICON still a Big Island/Maui landfall.

[Astromanía]

Wow still all the islands under the gun, I don't think this has happened before and I didn't think a year like 2020 for EPAC could produce something dangerous for Hawaii, time is running, be safe Kingarabian

[Kingarabian]

Wow still all the islands under the gun, I don't think this has happened before and I didn't think a year like 2020 for EPAC could produce something dangerous for Hawaii, time is running, be safe Kingarabian

Thank you I appreciate the thoughts!

00z GFS unchanged from previous runs. Sitting maybe 20 miles north of Oahu.

[Bocadude85]

Wow still all the islands under the gun, I don't think this has happened before and I didn't think a year like 2020 for EPAC could produce something dangerous for Hawaii, time is running, be safe Kingarabian

Thank you I appreciate the thoughts!

00z GFS unchanged from previous runs. Sitting maybe 20 miles north of Oahu.

One thing I have noticed is that the GFS keeps taking Douglas to far north in the short term, and every model cycle Douglas is farther south then the GFS thought he would be, not a good trend for us.

[Kingarabian]

Wow still all the islands under the gun, I don't think this has happened before and I didn't think a year like 2020 for EPAC could produce something dangerous for Hawaii, time is running, be safe Kingarabian

Thank you I appreciate the thoughts!

00z GFS unchanged from previous runs. Sitting maybe 20 miles north of Oahu.

One thing I have noticed is that the GFS keeps taking Douglas to far north in the short term, and every model cycle Douglas is farther south then the GFS thought he would be, not a good trend for us.

Also if you have access to the GFS Parallel runs in the CPAC, compare it with the operational GFS runs (GFS parallel is running a full day behind) and see how it shows Maui county and Oahu landfalls.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET I'm pretty sure makes Oahu landfall and dips this south of Kauai.

[Bocadude85]

0z Canadian has a Big Island landfall.

[Bocadude85]

00z UKMET I'm pretty sure makes Oahu landfall and dips this south of Kauai.

0z UKMET skims north coast of Maui and landfalls in Oahu passing south of Kauai.

[Kingarabian]

0z Canadian has a Big Island landfall.

Yeah theres some spread on this run. Canadian refusing to back off of this track. Usually I would toss it out but it's been doing well since 2018.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like 0z Euro moves Douglas over Kauai, with a close call for Oahu.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like 0z Euro moves Douglas over Kauai, with a close call for Oahu.

A bit more north. The core still makes land fall over northern Oahu.

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON/HWRF both clear Hawaii to the North.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like 0z Euro moves Douglas over Kauai, with a close call for Oahu.

A bit more north. The core still makes land fall over northern Oahu.

https://i.imgur.com/9qpZ1Yl.jpg

We are getting into the time frame where the models should not be all that far off from the actual track, still some wiggle room but not much.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like 0z Euro moves Douglas over Kauai, with a close call for Oahu.

A bit more north. The core still makes land fall over northern Oahu.

https://i.imgur.com/9qpZ1Yl.jpg

We are getting into the time frame where the models should not be all that far off from the actual track, still some wiggle room but not much.

Yet there remains quite a bit of spread. Unless we toss out the UKMET/CMC/ICON and the operational models ensembles.