ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2441 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:21 pm

Blown Away wrote:00z TVCN landfalls NE PBC and goes inland a couple miles and rides the coast.


They Might shift track west close to coast bringing in those TS winds I would think.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2442 Postby skillz305 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:22 pm

had a pretty wild band come thru the treasure coast. just a little taste of isaias. he wont even be here for 12-16 more hours :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2443 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:28 pm

HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2444 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4


Yeah I don't know about all that :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2445 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:37 pm

toad strangler wrote:
gatorcane wrote:HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4


Yeah I don't know about all that :lol:

i still remember this model sending matthew into miami.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2446 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:46 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
gatorcane wrote:HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4


Yeah I don't know about all that :lol:

i still remember this model sending matthew into miami.


Yes, good memory. It was so persistently wrong the whole night.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2447 Postby birddogsc » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4


It's like the model expects the LLC and MLC to dance around each other.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2448 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

I think the MLC and LLC being displaced now is causing the models fits again.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2449 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4


It's had an eastern bias for the last day to day and a half - although it's done fairly well with general structure and intensity. I don't know if it's going to be right or not. It's just one model to watch. NAM's are longer near/on the coast. ICON is running now. We'll see where that goes. Usually we have a better consensus within 18 hours. SFWMD shows it. But not the individual models necessarily.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

FWIW ^ is one of the all time tracks. Maybe one day something way stronger will approximate. ?
Last edited by Steve on Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2450 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:09 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

I think the MLC and LLC being displaced now is causing the models fits again.


The thing to watch for is relocation under the MLC, if that happens then the whole 0z model suite would have to be trashed but that’s an if right now
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2451 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:14 pm

ICON is mostly offshore but right at the shore.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0200&fh=23
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2452 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:25 pm

ICON has eastern NC as a decent TS in the scope.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2453 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:28 pm

02z HRRR is one of the closest runs to the coast yet. Again, nothing crazy, but certainly weather.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80202&fh=1
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2454 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:31 pm

ICON 5pm Tuesday
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2455 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:42 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

GFS rare track that is slightly west of the angle of the FL East Coast. Maybe?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2456 Postby skillz305 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:45 pm

SFWMD track line seems to have updated as a literal coast hugger on the treasure coast.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2457 Postby ncskywarn » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:01 am

TWC was showing all the different planes and their flight paths and said all the data from the upper air flight will be in the 6z model runs.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2458 Postby ncskywarn » Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:15 am

Anyone have the 0z Euro model plots?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2459 Postby ncskywarn » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:02 am

00Z ECMWF and 06Z NAM were both West of their previous runs. Both models now have the center passing directly over Wake County in North Carolina. The previous runs of both models were East of Wake County

Update: Add the 3k high resolution NAM to the list that now has the center passing directly over Wake County.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2460 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:56 am

The Euro is still persistent that it will strengthen some today before weakening again tonight. But I doubt it will strengthen that much.

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