ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[DestinHurricane]

GFS looks to briefly cross the shore. We'll see what it does after
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0118&fh=12

Yeah, 18z GFS slightly W through 30 hours with landfall near Pt St Lucie and I noticed it’s showing a much moister environment around Isaias through 30 hours...

Landfall looks south of PSL to me, looks like palm beach. https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 1200z.html

[Steve]

Here's a cool twist from the HRRR 21z at 1am. Isaias takes a jab at Palm Beach County. Take that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Since this new burst is on the north side of the circulation, is there a possibility that the convection might pull the center northward into it? If so, I would imagine that would have some minor implications on landfall location.

[DestinHurricane]

Since this new burst is on the north side of the circulation, is there a possibility that the convection might pull the center northward into it? If so, I would imagine that would have some minor implications on landfall location.

Seems to have already happened. Could still jog back west though.

[Steve]

Since this new burst is on the north side of the circulation, is there a possibility that the convection might pull the center northward into it? If so, I would imagine that would have some minor implications on landfall location.

Yeah. Run this. It just got a little ominous.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80121&fh=9

[DestinHurricane]

Since this new burst is on the north side of the circulation, is there a possibility that the convection might pull the center northward into it? If so, I would imagine that would have some minor implications on landfall location.

Yeah. Run this. It just got a little ominous.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80121&fh=9

How accurate is that model at predicting landfall location?

[Steve]

Since this new burst is on the north side of the circulation, is there a possibility that the convection might pull the center northward into it? If so, I would imagine that would have some minor implications on landfall location.

Yeah. Run this. It just got a little ominous.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80121&fh=9

How accurate is that model at predicting landfall location?

It's probably the best of the ones on Tropical Tidbits. But remember, it's part of the rapid update systems and run every hour (usually is an 18 hour run, 00/06/12/18 they release a 36). It's had a little east bias with Isaias and has kept it mostly offshore. But the depiction has been close as the hours get closer and the model's chances of getting things right are always improving. Looks like a boom night for all of SE FL if you ask me.

[mutley]

Since this new burst is on the north side of the circulation, is there a possibility that the convection might pull the center northward into it? If so, I would imagine that would have some minor implications on landfall location.

Yeah. Run this. It just got a little ominous.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80121&fh=9

How accurate is that model at predicting landfall location?

If there were a certain answer to those kind of questions, we wouldn't need to argue about it.

[ronjon]

18z GFS has Isaias crawling for 24 hrs after landfall at WPB at 7 am Sunday to Palm Bay at 7 am on Monday.

[WxEp]

18z GFS has Isaias crawling for 24 hrs after landfall at WPB at 7 am Sunday to Palm Bay at 7 am on Monday.

Looks like 12 hours to me. Palm Bay 7 pm Sunday.

[Steve]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

[mutley]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

Bring it. We are not afraid.

[drewschmaltz]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

Well that's awfully bullish!

[Steve]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

Bring it. We are not afraid.

Haha. Yeah, gonna be a wilder night that I think even a lot of people realize now if this system follows the 22z HRRR.

[WxEp]

HRRR has been remarkably consistent run-to-run on the timing of this convective burst. Going to be a really interesting test to see what happens in reality but it is a bit concerning for what may happen in the next several hours.

[Steve]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

Well that's awfully bullish!

It's been pretty on with the near-time stuff for Isaias.

Also, looks like the next peak will be 4am (per HRRR obviously).

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles clustered over Palm Beach County

[cp79]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

It won’t be bad. Just like a typical summer storm. Florida is used to it. They’ve gone through much worse.

[mutley]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

Bring it. We are not afraid.

Haha. Yeah, gonna be a wilder night that I think even a lot of people realize now if this system follows the 22z HRRR.

It will definitely be interesting to watch throughout the night. Many possibilities.

[Steve]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

It won’t be bad. Just like a typical summer storm. Florida is used to it. They’ve gone through much worse.

For sure. I'm a part-time FL resident also (just NW side). It still ought to be more than some people that don't pay attention bargained for as far as limbs coming down and power issues. For me, it would be a porch night with some Beam. But there are likely to be several hours of intense weather to be had for some.