ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[HurricaneBelle]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

It won’t be bad. Just like a typical summer storm. Florida is used to it. They’ve gone through much worse.

Everybody always says this when looking at peak gusts, but typical Florida summer storms don't bring hours of sustained winds.

[toad strangler]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

It won’t be bad. Just like a typical summer storm. Florida is used to it. They’ve gone through much worse.

Everybody always says this when looking at peak gusts, but typical Florida summer storms don't bring hours of sustained winds.

THis really is a great point.

[mutley]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

It won’t be bad. Just like a typical summer storm. Florida is used to it. They’ve gone through much worse.

Everybody always says this when looking at peak gusts, but typical Florida summer storms don't bring hours of sustained winds.

You are right Belle. Sustained winds bring much more debris onto power lines. Making repairs much more numerous. However, we (in Ocala) frequently lose power during thunderstorms, the last time, about a week ago, a transformer blew. But usually the power is restored quite quickly.

[Jr0d]

12z HWRF simulated IR looks to bring some nasty weather to the SEFL Coast on up towards the Space Coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80112&fh=9

Look what the HWRF does on the simulated IR between hours 6 and 12. Does anyone believe that?

I do not. It is just about impossible for it do that in its current position and especially its current state.

Still think that is impossible?

Impressive blow up. If Isaias can maintain the convection, he might be upgraded at 11pm.

As impressive as this is, its might be a pulse and will not sustain the convection very long. If it does...watch out!

Still no outflow though, if it can establish some outflow I dont think RI is out of the question, especially with a slower speed and more time over the gulf stream.

[toad strangler]

Look what the HWRF does on the simulated IR between hours 6 and 12. Does anyone believe that?

I do not. It is just about impossible for it do that in its current position and especially its current state.

Still think that is impossible?

Impressive blow up. If Isaias can maintain the convection, he might be upgraded at 11pm.

As impressive as this is, its might be a pulse and will not sustain the convection very long. If it does...watch out!

Still no outflow though, if it can establish some outflow I dont think RI is out of the question, especially with a slower speed and more time over the gulf stream.

I think the better bet is a wane of this current pulse and then another pulse thereafter. Wash, rinse, repeat with Isaias?

[MJGarrison]

I know we are wobble watching and not model watching right now, but the 18Z Euro stays off the coast.


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[ColdMiser123]

I know we are wobble watching and not model watching right now, but the 18Z Euro stays off the coast.


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Quite a difference from previous runs, and also significantly stronger with intensity overall. Lots of uncertainty still left with this storm both with track and intensity.

[mutley]

I know we are wobble watching and not model watching right now, but the 18Z Euro stays off the coast.


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Quite a difference from previous runs, and also significantly stronger with intensity overall. Lots of uncertainty still left with this storm both with track and intensity.

I agree with you. People in Florida should set their alarms for very early tomorrow, and see what they are facing

[cp79]

Y'all about to get rocked.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80122&fh=4

It won’t be bad. Just like a typical summer storm. Florida is used to it. They’ve gone through much worse.

Everybody always says this when looking at peak gusts, but typical Florida summer storms don't bring hours of sustained winds.

Yeah but I’d rather deal with 40mph sustained gusts than 150mph sustained gusts. Much more manageable.

[TheStormExpert]

It won’t be bad. Just like a typical summer storm. Florida is used to it. They’ve gone through much worse.

Everybody always says this when looking at peak gusts, but typical Florida summer storms don't bring hours of sustained winds.

Yeah but I’d rather deal with 40mph sustained gusts than 150mph sustained gusts. Much more manageable.

Typical summertime Florida storms usually bring wind gusts up to 40-60mph.

[toad strangler]

Everybody always says this when looking at peak gusts, but typical Florida summer storms don't bring hours of sustained winds.

Yeah but I’d rather deal with 40mph sustained gusts than 150mph sustained gusts. Much more manageable.

Typical summertime Florida storms usually bring wind gusts up to 40-60mph.

YES but as pointed out earlier on this board typical Florida summertime storms don't have these gusts last for HOURS. Not even comparable.

18z Euro is off the coast and a East Coast FL miss BTW.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yeah but I’d rather deal with 40mph sustained gusts than 150mph sustained gusts. Much more manageable.

Typical summertime Florida storms usually bring wind gusts up to 40-60mph.

YES but as pointed out earlier on this board typical Florida summertime storms don't have these gusts last for HOURS. Not even comparable.

18z Euro is off the coast and a East Coast FL miss BTW.

What does 18z ECMWF do with the Carolinas?

[gatorcane]

Yeah but I’d rather deal with 40mph sustained gusts than 150mph sustained gusts. Much more manageable.

Typical summertime Florida storms usually bring wind gusts up to 40-60mph.

YES but as pointed out earlier on this board typical Florida summertime storms don't have these gusts last for HOURS. Not even comparable.

18z Euro is off the coast and a East Coast FL miss BTW.

I would compare the winds we are seeing so far to what we get in the late fall and winter here in SE Florida when a strong high pressure system builds in down the eastern seaboard behind a cold front. We could easily see mid 30s wind gusts in these scenarios and out of a similar ENE to NE direction. Sometimes these winds last for a few days.

18Z NAVGEM:

[Steve]

HRRR 00z is running now. It runs 36 hours, so we can see what it thinks as of now running through Monday at 8am. NAM's are next then ICON, GFS, Hurricanes/CMC then European. I think after the FL brush, we're getting close to seeing if Isaias is going to affect a lot of other areas in the next 84-90 hours or so. Cool storm.

[cp79]

If the 18z Euro pans out, Fla is in good shape.

[Blown Away]

00z TVCN landfalls NE PBC and goes inland a couple miles and rides the coast.

[AxaltaRacing24]

If the 18z Euro pans out, Fla is in good shape.

honestly, the euro has been all over every single run. more so than the gfs.

not saying it is wrong, but its been inconsistent

[DestinHurricane]

00z TVCN landfalls NE PBC and goes inland a couple miles and rides the coast.

Should the NHC shift west next advisory? I think not considering the storms current position and movement.

[SFLcane]

It won’t be bad. Just like a typical summer storm. Florida is used to it. They’ve gone through much worse.

Everybody always says this when looking at peak gusts, but typical Florida summer storms don't bring hours of sustained winds.

THis really is a great point.

Great point! But there is still not been any reports of sustained TS winds across mainland SFL. We will see if that changes overnight.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Everybody always says this when looking at peak gusts, but typical Florida summer storms don't bring hours of sustained winds.

THis really is a great point.

Great point! But there is still not been any reports of sustained TS winds across mainland SFL. We will see if that changes overnight.

the storm isn't here yet. there won't be any of those until later tonight or morning most likely.