ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[jonj2040]

Circulation has outrun the convection.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200803/94l.gif

Oh yeah still lots of shear out there behind Isaias

I was curious about the correct description of this, is this in fact a circulation or just the peak amplitude of the trough axis?

Furthermore does the prospective future LLC usually form at the peak of the trough axis or can it form anywhere along the axis via occlusion?

Or do I have the principles wrong altogether?

Thank you!

[alan1961]

Circulation has outrun the convection.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200803/94l.gif

Oh yeah still lots of shear out there behind Isaias

I was curious about the correct description of this, is this in fact a circulation or just the peak amplitude of the trough axis?

Furthermore does the prospective future LLC usually form at the peak of the trough axis or can it form anywhere along the axis via occlusion?

Or do I have the principles wrong altogether?

Thank you!

Its just an observation on the satellite view from me jonj2040..maybe one of the pro-mets could answer your question..cheers

[EquusStorm]

Convection is certainly persistent now east of that little swirl, wonder if a surface low will try to redevelop under that if it persists

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

A surface trough of low pressure, located a few hundred miles
south of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Marginal environmental conditions could allow for
some slow development of this system during the next few days,
with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week. This
system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the
southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday, and then stall several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Bermuda continues to produce showers and a few thunderstorms. This
system has shown signs of organization in the mid-levels for the
past couple of days, but it still appears to be disorganized at the
surface. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for development of this system during the next few days
and a tropical depression could form later this week. This system is
forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern
Atlantic today and on Tuesday, and then stall several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$

[Extratropical94]

Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near a trough of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Bermuda. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form
over the next day or so, abundant dry air surrounding the system is
likely to limit significant development. This system is forecast
to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern
Atlantic today, stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda
tonight, and then drift southwestward on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Hammy]

Seems like nothing ever really got going at the surface, I guess this one didn't want to develop. There was really only very limited model support in the first place.

[Aric Dunn]

our little friend is looking interesting this evening..
low level moisture wrapping around a LLC.. some sustained pops as well.

its small but notiable

[northjaxpro]

A few models still want to stall it and do a loop and have it drift back toward the southwest in the next few days.

However, it faces the same familiar hurdle like a lot of all of these systems have faced this season: dry air.

We will see if this small system can hang on, but we know how 2020 has been so far. We can't ever rule out any possible situation in the tropics , especially this year. We will see.

[St0rmTh0r]

our little friend is looking interesting this evening..
low level moisture wrapping around a LLC.. some sustained pops as well.

its small but notiable

https://i.ibb.co/cN6mLMS/111111.gif

This would be a depression if shear wasn't so high

[Chris90]

You can see the LLC, but it’s to the south of the convection. I’m rooting for this to NOT get a name, we’re gonna run out sooner rather than later at this pace, and I don’t want all the good names used up on clusters of thunderstorms. Just be a depression and use up a number.

[Aric Dunn]

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 924&y=4710

[cycloneye]

A small well-defined low has formed within a broader trough of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This
system is producing very little thunderstorm activity at this time,
but some slight development is possible while the system moves
little during the next couple of days. A southwestward drift is
forecast on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Still has a pretty vigorous LLC in visible imagery but just doesn't look like the dry stable air is gonna let up enough for it to do anything. Will probably form now that I said something lol. Wouldn't mind seeing this become Josephine and stay over open water.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[CyclonicFury]

During the past few hours, thunderstorm activity has developed near the tiny low-level center of this system.

[TheHurricaneGod]

I'm gonna have to issue invest 94L's LLC a citation for indecent exposure.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small but well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred
miles southwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms. This low is expected to drift west-southwestward
during the next couple of days. Any development of this disturbance
should be slow to occur due to dry air and increasing upper-level
winds by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[eastcoastFL]

The only convection left seems to be far south of where the system is. Not even sure if it’s related. I think this one is dead

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system located about midway between Bermuda
and the Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. However, the circulation appears to be losing
definition, and development is not expected due to dry air and
increasing upper-level winds. This system is forecast to drift
southwestward or meander for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[tailgater]

I'm gonna have to issue invest 94L's LLC a citation for indecent exposure.

GFS has this old invest as a trackable feature(barely) for 5 days from now. Poor little gal/guy must die of exposure.

Looks like it’s hanging in there pretty well to me. Shear might be aiding it at this time. Almost never say never.