WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Nancy Smar]

93W INVEST 200802 1200 5.0N 130.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

That's a very low latitude invest, is there even a hopeful chance for this?
well GFS kinda has it but the convection over the south china sea looks more interesting

[doomhaMwx]

Eyes on Hagupit right now. I'm surprised this is already up to medium from JTWC. Nothing notable about it on the models at least for the next 3 days.

ABPW10 PGTW 030600

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.3N
129.4E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DISTURBANCE
WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST. A 022338Z ASCAT-A
IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT 15
TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER. A 030053Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
EAST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLCC, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS WEAK
ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BROAD, DIFFLUENT FLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
(30-31C), AND ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 129.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.