WPAC: JANGMI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

94W INVEST 200806 0600 14.0N 128.1E WPAC 15 1007

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 070000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 14N 127E NNW 10 KT.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.2N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070108Z METOP-B 89
GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS BUT NO
DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 5-10KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
10-15KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 94W IS CURRENTLY
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
UPPER LEVEL FLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA
SEA WHILE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

TD
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 7 August 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 7 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°25' (16.4°)
E126°20' (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°50' (21.8°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

[Ed_2001]

WTPN21 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 126.4E TO 25.6N 126.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
SCATTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST. A 071716Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LLC. A 071309Z METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LLC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND AND A SMALL SWATH
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING, REMAINING
HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[1900hurricane]

Surface circulation may be trying to consolidate on the north side of the recent convective blowup.

[1900hurricane]

Looks about right to me.

TPPN10 PGTW 080019

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (E OF LUZON)

B. 07/2350Z

C. 16.80N

D. 127.54E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES

[1900hurricane]

Well, at least you can clearly see the circulation...

[euro6208]

Upgraded

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM IS ISSUED
AT AN INTENSITY OF 20 KTS BASED ON ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION TO 35
KTS OR GREATER WITHIN 24 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE PRESENT IN 080140Z ASCAT-C
DATA, AS WELL AS THE FORMATIVE BANDING THAT APPEARS TO WRAP INTO A
LLCC IN A 080426Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED
SIGHTLY BELOW A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25
KTS) BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF 15-20 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN THE 080140Z
ASCAT-C DATA, AS WELL AS DATA FROM A 080047Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE WIND
FIELD IS BROAD WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS DISPLACED > 100 KTS
FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST. TD 05W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND THROUGH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THE SYSTEM IS UNDER SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. DURING THIS TIME THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 40 KTS BY TAU 24 WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO THE CONTINUED LOW
VWS AND WARM SSTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AND
BEGIN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT APPROACHES BUSAN, KOREA.
INTENSIFICATION WILL SLOW DURING THIS PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 50
KTS BY TAU 48, AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE FROM WARM (29
CELSIUS) AT TAU 36 TO COOL (24 CELSIUS) BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE
KOREA STRAIT WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
APPROACHES DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN IT WILL
BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO
THE SYSTEM COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72, WEST OF
HOKKAIDO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 37 NM AT TAU 24 INCREASING TO 100 NM BY TAU 48
AND ONLY DIVERGING SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Think JTWC may have jumped the gun a little. West side doesn't look totally closed yet.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS Jangmi.

TS 2005 (Jangmi)
Issued at 19:20 UTC, 8 August 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°00' (21.0°)
E126°05' (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 460 km (250 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°05' (25.1°)
E126°40' (126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°20' (30.3°)
E126°30' (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 50 km/h (26 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 August>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N40°55' (40.9°)
E132°30' (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 55 km/h (29 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (JANGMI)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL
FEATURES PRESENT IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BANDING FROM
A 082245Z F17 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KTS IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5-2.5 (25-35 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
INTENSITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF 33 KNOTS AT 090000Z. TD 05W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND
THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
(10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY REMAINS UNDER FAIR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, HOWEVER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IS OFFSETTING THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR SOUTH OF KOREA. DURING THIS TIME,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT TAU
24 AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
(29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SSTS, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND CONVERGENT
FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CONVERGENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HINDER
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 12 TO TAU 24. AT TAU 36, TD 05W IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER
WATERS (24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND APPROACHES DEEP WESTERLY FLOW.
AFTER CROSSING THE KOREA STRAIT, TD 05W WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AS IT MOVES INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED AND REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
60NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT OF GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Now upgraded to a TS.

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT
IN THE MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING PRESENT
IN 090453Z AMSR2 AND 090331Z GMI (89GHZ BOTH) IMAGES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (PGTW, 30KTS) AND T2.5 (RJTD,
35KTS) AND THE WIND FIELD PRESENT IN A 090051Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE WIND
FIELD REMAINS BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAK (10-20 KTS) WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE AND HIGHER (35 KTS) WINDS DISPLACED 50
NM FROM THE LLCC OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. THE ASCAT-A
DATA ALSO CONTAINS ISOLATED 45 KTS WINDS DISPLACED 140-170 NM OF THE LLCC
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TS 05W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND
THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY REMAINS UNDER FAIR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, HOWEVER CONVERGENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS OFFSETTING THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR SOUTH OF KOREA. DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SSTS, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE WEST. THE
CONVERGENT FLOW, COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS FROM 29 TO 24 CELSIUS, IS
EXPECTED TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 12 TO TAU 24. AT THIS TIME
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS TS 05W TRAVELS ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN IT WILL
CONTINUE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 35 KTS DUE TO COOLER
(22-23 CELSIUS) SSTS AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VWS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY DUE TO
ENHANCED OUTFLOW FROM TO THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. BY TAU 48 TS JANGMI WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WEST OF
HOKKAIDO. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED AND REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE 70NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24 INCREASING TO 120 NM BY
TAU 48. THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

I'll give it the benefit of the doubt, but it's still pretty borderline that it's actually closed.

[1900hurricane]

Deeply entangled with an upper level low too.

[1900hurricane]

Recent ASCAT data definitively showed it closed off now. Based on a 20.8 m/s 10 minute sustained wind at Kitahara and a 29.5 m/s gust at Tokashiki both around 5 pm local time yesterday, max winds were probably about 45 kt 1 minute sustained as it moved through the Ryukyus.

[1900hurricane]

This has genuinely been one of the most visually unpleasant TCs I've ever seen.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM
SOUTH OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH BUILDING, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE LLCC PRESENT IN THE MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS, AND
BY EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE BANDING PRESENT IN A 100236Z GMI 89GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS FROM BUSAN AND TSUSHIMA.
TS JANGMI IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY COOL (25-26
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN
RAPID AS THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 24. INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW TS 05W TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
TRANSITION, DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Final Warning


WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 36.9N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.9N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 41.8N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 45.3N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 131.8E.
10AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
139 NM NORTHEAST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC PRESENT IN THE EIR
LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE
DEPICTED IN A 100847Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS, RCTP), T2.0 (30 KTS,
PGTW) AND T2.5 (35 KTS, RJTD) AS WELL AS 30 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN
A PARTIAL 101259Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK ALONG THE COOL (20-25 CELSIUS) WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN,
THE STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN RAPID AS IT MERGES WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TS 05W TO NEARLY
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE TRANSITION, DESPITE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. TS JANGMI
WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN
IN HIGH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 06W (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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