EPAC: ELIDA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

NHC now going technical with their in house dvorak estimates. I like it.

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Elida's convective pattern has become significantly better organized
since the 0600Z T4.5/77-kt Dvorak satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB. A 10-nmi-diameter eye has become embedded within a
white ring (cloud tops colder than -70C), while the upper-level
outflow has expanded and become more symmetrical. In addition,
earlier WindSat microwave satellite data indicated that Elida
possessed a 10-nmi-wide low-level eye. Based on these data and the
recent improvement in Elida's convective and eye structure, the
intensity has been increased to a conservative 80 kt.

Elida's motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. So
much for yesterday's forecast calling for the hurricane to begin
turning more westward by this time. Elida has maintained a motion of
300 degrees for the past 48 h or so, and there doesn't appear to be
any significant steering feature to change that to a westward course
over the next few days. In fact, some of the global models actually
turn Elida northward into a mid-level ridge after 48 hours. For
now, however, the official forecast track keeps the hurricane
moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward, accompanied by
a gradual decrease in forward speed, throughout the forecast
period. The new track forecast lies between the previous advisory
track to the south and the consensus models to the north.

Elida is likely close to reaching its peak intensity, although some
additional slight strengthening is still possible this morning
before the hurricane starts moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface
temperatures (SST) in about 12 h. Thereafter, SSTs steadily decrease
along the path of the cyclone, dropping to below 24C by 36 hours and
to near 22C by 72 hours. Thus, steady weakening is forecast after 12
hours with Elida becoming a remnant low by 48 h, followed by
continued weakening until the cyclone dissipates in 96-120 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to both the previous
advisory and the latest NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 20.7N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Astromanía]

[Astromanía]

I will go with a cat 2 hurricane for the final hours, just another 5kt for wind speed..., nice recovery, if it wasn't for that dry air this could have been a major easily but is 2020 so..., Well much better than Cristina in this area time ago

[Yellow Evan]

11/1130 UTC 21.1N 113.4W T5.0/5.0 ELIDA -- East Pacific

[aspen]

Now a Category 2: 85 kt, 975 mbar at 12z

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ELIDA EP092020 08/11/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 84 80 73 60 46 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 85 86 84 80 73 60 46 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 85 85 81 74 67 52 40 32 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 10 10 7 9 12 17 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 4 5 6 2 1 2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 302 296 219 210 230 189 203 185 197 197 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.8 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.2 23.2 22.8 22.2 22.2 21.8 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 133 122 116 111 105 93 88 82 82 78 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -51.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 54 56 48 42 35 30 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 19 16 13 9 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 -4 -10 -22 -22 3 -1 4 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -2 -16 -2 6 -6 3 11 -11 18 3 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 0 1 8 10 4 1 2 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 411 441 489 541 597 647 677 703 795 821 782 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.5 26.1 27.1 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.7 115.9 117.0 118.0 119.7 120.7 121.6 122.8 123.7 124.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 7 6 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -26. -33. -38. -44. -48. -51. -54. -57. -60. -63.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -22. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -5. -12. -25. -39. -51. -63. -71. -83. -87. -89. -92. -94. -96. -97.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.1 113.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.15 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 520.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.9% 0.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[EquusStorm]

Recovered rather nicely. Looking pretty good

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Elida continued to get better organized through about 12Z, with the
eye becoming better defined inside the cold overcast. Since then,
the eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting that the
hurricane has peaked in intensity. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were 90 kt at 12Z, and based mainly on these the
initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track
guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west-
northwestward for the next 36 h or so, and this part of the new
forecast track is similar to the previous track. After that, there
is spread between the NAVGEM/UK Ensemble mean/COAMPS-TC models,
which show a more westward motion, and the bulk of the remaining
guidance which shows a northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed due to Elida interacting with an upper-level low off
of the coast of California. The new forecast follows the
northwestward scenario and the various consensus models, and it has
been nudged to the right of the previous forecast.

Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the
center forecast to be over 24C water in 24 h and 23C in 48 h. This
should lead to rapid weakening after 12 h or so. The new intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and the previous
forecast in calling for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in
just over 24 h and to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h. The new
forecast has the remnant low dissipating between 72-96 h, and the
global models suggest this could occur earlier than currently
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 21.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Definitely weakening now but at least this was respectable.

[aspen]

Elida is holding itself together very well. In fact, it seems to be improving on visible satellite imagery.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 112035
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Elida has not changed significantly in organization since the last
advisory, as the storm continues to have a small cloud-filled eye
inside a symmetric central dense overcast. Various objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates are slightly lower than
the previous advisory, but they have not decreased enough to
justify lowering the initial intensity yet.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. The track
guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west-
northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the guidance is
in better agreement that Elida should turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed due to interaction with an upper-level
low off of the coast of California. There is little change to the
forecast track, which lies near the various consensus models, from
the previous advisory.

Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the
center forecast to be over 23C water in 24 h and 22C in 48 h. This
should lead to rapid weakening beginning in the next 6-12 h, with
the global models forecasting the system to weaken to a trough by
72 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the
guidance and calls for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in
just over 24 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate
by 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 22.1N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Classic strong EPAC hurricane spindown.

[NDG]

Highly doubt it is still a Cat 2 hurricane as I type this.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 120236
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops
associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed,
especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation. A
timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the
southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level
center is located a little south of recent position estimates
using visible satellite imagery. The latest subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt.
The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best
agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend
of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed
toward significantly cooler waters. In addition, the vertical wind
shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours.
These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening
over the next 24 to 36 hours. Elida is forecast to weaken to a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep
convection. The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the
trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the
various consensus aids.

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. The
cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as
it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern United States. After that time, a
trough located well west of southern California is expected to
weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down
and turn northwestward. The dynamical model guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the
previous forecast was required.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Satellite imagery over the past several hours shows that the deep
convection associated with Elida has been shrinking in coverage,
while earlier microwave data revealed that the low-level center is
on the southern edge of the convection. All of the available Dvorak
data-T numbers have been on the decline tonight, and there remains a
large spread in the Dvorak CI numbers, ranging from about 50-75 kt.
The initial advisory intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is
essentially a blend of the TAFB and SAB CI numbers along with the
latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate.

Elida is now moving over water temperatures below 24C, and the
cyclone is heading towards even cooler waters. In addition, the
cyclone's surrounding environment is expected to become increasingly
drier and more stable over the next 24 h. These factors should
cause Elida to rapidly weaken over the next day or so, with the
cyclone expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today. After 24
h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should help
to dissipate any remaining deep convection associated with Elida
around that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to
the various consensus aids through the period of rapid weakening,
and is similar to the previous forecast.

Elida is now moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue through today, as the cyclone moves
around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over
the southwestern United States. By tonight, the western portion of
the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Elida to turn
northwestward with some additional slowing of its forward speed.
This new motion should continue until the system becomes a remnant
low. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous and
is near the well-clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 23.0N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ELIDA EP092020 08/12/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 46 38 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 55 46 38 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 46 38 33 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 13 11 6 11 12 21 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 5 4 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 236 251 223 192 204 209 210 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.0 23.2 22.6 22.3 22.1 22.0 21.3 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 103 94 87 83 82 81 73 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 54 49 46 43 42 36 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 13 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -22 -13 -5 9 13 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -3 -3 0 6 12 6 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 13 10 0 3 1 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 593 599 609 616 631 678 687 682 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.3 26.5 27.9 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.0 119.7 120.2 120.7 121.7 122.6 123.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 7 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -24. -28. -31. -35. -38. -41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -17. -18. -20. -22. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. -5. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. -17. -17. -19. -20.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -18. -19. -18. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -25. -31. -38. -46. -54. -59. -65. -70. -76. -81. -88. -93. -99.-101.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.2 118.2

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/12/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 458.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.55 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/12/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Elida's remaining deep convection, located northeast of the center
of circulation, continues to shrink in coverage and wane in
intensity now that the cyclone is over waters of 23-24 degrees
Celsius. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers are 55-65 kt from TAFB
and SAB, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are much lower.
Elida has weakened to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is
set at 55 kt as a blend of the estimates. With even colder waters
ahead and a steady increase in southwesterly shear, Elida is
expected to weaken quickly and likely lose its deep convection
within the next 24 hours, making it a remnant low by this time
tomorrow. Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will
dissipate in 2-3 days.

Elida is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. The cyclone has
reached a break in the subtropical ridge, with a low- to mid-level
trough extending southwest of California. This pattern should
cause Elida to turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest
during the next couple of days, and the track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario. The NHC track prediction is similar to
the previous forecast during the first 24 hours and then is nudged
slightly to the right after that time to lean closer to the GFS and
ECMWF solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 23.5N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[storminabox]

Bye Elida! Nice knowing you.

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Elida has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
since it is over SSTs of 22-23 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely that
organized deep convection will return. As a result, the system
has become a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC
advisory on Elida. The initial intensity has been set at 35 kt,
which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB
and SAB. The cyclone is heading toward even cooler waters and a
more stable environment. Continued weakening is therefore
expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Friday
morning.

The initial motion estimate is 315/8 kt. A low- to mid-level
trough located to the northwest of the cyclone has caused a break
in the subtropical ridge. This has allowed the system to turn
northwestward, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion is
expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Friday. The global
model guidance continues to suggest that the low-level center will
decelerate as the mid-level circulation is pulled northward ahead
of the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track foreast is similar
to the previous advisory and again shows a slower forward motion
than the global model trackers.

This is the last NHC advisory on Elida. For additional information
on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 24.4N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 13/1200Z 25.3N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0000Z 26.6N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Ed_2001]

 https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1293844035614826496