EPAC: ELIDA - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

91E INVEST 200807 1200 12.5N 95.5W EPAC 20 1009

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure is
forming from a tropical wave centered a couple of hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days while
the system moves generally west-northwestward, offshore of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912020 08/07/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 30 39 52 61 69 73 75 76 76 71 66 62 58
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 30 39 52 61 69 73 75 76 76 71 66 62 58
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 37 42 46 50 53 52 47 40 35 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 8 7 5 5 5 5 7 11 4 9 6 16 11 14 14 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 -1 2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 26 36 38 26 17 8 326 320 332 317 266 242 230 224 222 238 277
SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 29.4 28.7 28.2 26.2 25.6 24.4 25.0 24.2 25.3
POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 164 165 167 167 167 170 160 153 148 126 120 107 114 106 118
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 84 83 81 79 72 69 64 60 58 56 54 51 46 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 8 9 9 10 12 13 13 14 13 11 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 11 10 2 9 8 15 25 39 5 0 -11 -6 0 29 53
200 MB DIV 60 48 77 61 43 82 91 55 39 45 29 19 21 0 5 -5 0
700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -8 -8 -10 0 1 11 7 11 8 5
LAND (KM) 364 317 316 329 355 400 420 471 580 579 669 755 926 1079 1276 1535 1821
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.8 17.1 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.8 97.9 99.0 100.1 102.5 104.9 107.4 110.0 112.4 115.0 117.5 120.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 13 14
HEAT CONTENT 31 35 31 31 34 31 34 30 18 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 12. 20. 28. 33. 36. 39. 42. 43. 43. 43. 44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 9. 6. 4. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 32. 41. 49. 53. 55. 56. 56. 51. 46. 42. 38.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 95.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 08/07/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.97 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 21.2% 9.9% 4.9% 0.8% 27.5% 47.0% 37.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 8.3% 3.5% 0.8% 0.3% 4.0% 2.3% 5.2%
Consensus: 0.6% 9.8% 4.5% 1.9% 0.4% 10.5% 16.4% 14.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 08/07/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, do you see this as the second major?

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, do you see this as the second major?

[url]https://i.imgur.com/SsvzP7T.gif[url]

It has good structure and conditions ahead of it don't look too bad. I would hope so since it's a fish but I would not be surprised if it did not happen. This could easily be a sloppy TS/low end hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912020 08/07/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 53 65 70 77 77 79 78 75 71 65 61 57
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 53 65 70 77 77 79 78 75 71 65 61 57
V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 63 65 63 58 49 42 36 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 5 6 4 8 10 10 3 10 10 12 13 14 13 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 2 2 0 0 1 -3 5 -5 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 41 44 29 28 2 24 315 328 331 278 288 228 232 210 232 245 294
SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.3 29.8 29.2 28.5 27.3 25.8 25.1 24.9 25.0 24.8 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 165 165 164 170 164 158 151 138 122 115 112 114 112 120
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 81 82 84 83 81 80 76 71 66 62 60 57 56 54 49 48 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 7 7 7 10 9 12 12 14 14 14 12 9 9 7
850 MB ENV VOR 15 13 4 -6 2 0 12 13 31 35 2 -2 -4 3 6 52 49
200 MB DIV 47 75 63 41 45 114 77 56 40 40 21 35 4 8 1 -8 12
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -7 -12 -6 -9 0 3 5 9 13 4 5
LAND (KM) 367 369 391 422 455 480 519 584 655 653 752 863 1038 1183 1416 1685 1973
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.9 14.8 15.9 17.2 18.3 19.2 20.0 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 97.1 98.4 99.5 100.7 101.9 104.2 106.6 109.1 111.6 113.9 116.4 118.9 121.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 12 11 12 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 13 14 14
HEAT CONTENT 30 28 31 37 37 31 38 20 17 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 37. 37. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 10. 10. 13. 12. 11. 8. 5. 4. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 40. 45. 52. 52. 54. 53. 50. 46. 40. 36. 32.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 97.1

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 08/07/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 9.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 6.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 4.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.1% 27.2% 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 41.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.1% 38.3% 19.7% 11.4% 1.8% 42.4% 67.3% 51.6%
Bayesian: 2.5% 53.8% 30.8% 9.6% 1.2% 14.9% 9.6% 8.8%
Consensus: 2.8% 41.0% 25.9% 7.0% 1.0% 27.8% 39.6% 20.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 08/07/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days while
the system moves generally west-northwestward, offshore of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 8 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward,
remaining offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS has trended a little stronger getting it down to 975Mb at 72 hours.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 8 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure
system located more than 200 miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, has become better defined since yesterday. Thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of organization, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
system moves west-northwestward, remaining well offshore the coast
of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Shear should be pretty favorable for the next 48-72 hours. So it does have time. However it is quite large and systems in this area of the EPAC have been sloppy so far.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912020 08/08/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 52 63 74 79 85 80 72 64 56 50 45 40 36
V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 52 63 74 79 85 80 72 64 56 50 45 40 36
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 45 53 61 69 72 67 57 47 39 33 28 24 21
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 9 12 11 10 2 5 10 16 19 16 14 8 12 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -5 2 -1 1 1 1 -2 0 4 -1 2
SHEAR DIR 359 2 345 323 314 324 320 308 267 206 230 203 214 220 241 287 322
SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 29.4 28.9 28.2 26.7 25.3 24.4 24.4 24.2 23.9 24.9 24.9 25.6
POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 170 171 172 160 155 147 132 117 107 107 105 101 112 112 119
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 2
700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 79 76 70 67 61 58 55 55 52 45 42 39 37 32
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 12 13 16 18 22 21 19 16 13 12 9 8 5
850 MB ENV VOR 2 5 -3 -1 23 24 24 36 0 -7 -5 13 34 65 65 70 53
200 MB DIV 36 48 67 69 53 46 44 48 27 9 6 23 14 -5 3 -14 -4
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -6 -5 -13 -9 -9 3 7 12 16 7 3 6 6 6
LAND (KM) 340 344 350 345 374 440 498 508 634 779 939 1093 1275 1486 1691 1919 2155
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 32 31 32 36 36 19 13 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. 26. 25. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 16. 11. 6. 5. 2. 1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 33. 44. 49. 55. 50. 42. 34. 26. 21. 15. 11. 6.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 100.9

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 08/08/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 9.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 5.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 4.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 35.2% 28.5% 19.9% 0.0% 24.8% 24.0% 39.4%
Logistic: 19.4% 61.2% 37.7% 26.8% 11.9% 44.6% 39.3% 16.1%
Bayesian: 1.3% 48.0% 25.1% 8.5% 2.9% 29.5% 12.8% 0.4%
Consensus: 12.3% 48.2% 30.4% 18.4% 4.9% 33.0% 25.4% 18.7%
DTOPS: 2.0% 22.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 16.0% 20.0% 57.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 08/08/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[gatorcane]

Saved loop big picture, looks a little sloppy at the moment but definitely organizing:

[Yellow Evan]

08/1730 UTC 14.0N 101.1W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data and satellite images indicate
that a tropical depression appears to be forming a couple of
hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. If this development
trend continues, advisories will be initiated this evening or
tonight. This system is expected to move west-northwestward over
the next few days, remaining well offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Yea this is classifiable at this point.

[Yellow Evan]

08/2330 UTC 14.5N 102.0W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912020 08/09/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 48 55 67 77 83 83 76 67 58 51 44 40 36 33
V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 48 55 67 77 83 83 76 67 58 51 44 40 36 33
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 46 54 62 69 70 62 51 42 35 30 26 22 19
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 8 9 10 6 4 7 13 14 15 16 11 7 10 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 1 1 -4 0 -1 0 3 0 -4 0 1 7 2
SHEAR DIR 11 6 349 328 315 325 328 263 207 210 208 211 203 218 228 254 320
SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.1 29.1 28.6 27.4 25.7 25.1 24.2 24.2 23.7 24.1 24.9 24.9 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 171 172 167 157 152 139 122 115 105 105 99 103 111 112 119
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 2
700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 77 73 70 65 62 58 58 53 49 42 41 36 36 32
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 13 15 16 19 22 22 21 18 15 13 11 9 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 4 20 25 20 40 15 1 -3 -3 25 51 54 41 38 33
200 MB DIV 58 66 72 47 57 40 49 30 31 9 20 20 2 11 -7 -12 -35
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 -10 -9 -5 2 11 12 6 5 3 5 5 3
LAND (KM) 328 334 338 366 384 525 529 628 739 911 1039 1212 1403 1567 1726 1937 2142
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 10 9 7 9 11 13
HEAT CONTENT 31 33 37 36 29 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 27. 26. 25. 24. 24. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 6. 11. 18. 20. 18. 14. 10. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -1. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 18. 25. 37. 47. 53. 53. 46. 37. 28. 21. 14. 10. 6. 3.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 102.0

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 08/09/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 9.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 6.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.48 4.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 41.0% 29.7% 20.6% 0.0% 25.1% 26.9% 36.7%
Logistic: 10.3% 51.3% 28.3% 20.0% 7.3% 35.3% 33.4% 10.2%
Bayesian: 0.4% 23.4% 9.6% 3.0% 0.3% 7.2% 3.1% 0.3%
Consensus: 9.2% 38.6% 22.5% 14.5% 2.6% 22.5% 21.1% 15.8%
DTOPS: 4.0% 42.0% 23.0% 7.0% 3.0% 16.0% 11.0% 30.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 08/09/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##