ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Although there is some seperation from the convection FL has TS winds. .

but once again they refuse to go into the convection.. so we will never know the actual winds.

either way. convection has to keep pulsing near the center otherwise my tomorrow morning or afternoon it will likely canned.

[ozonepete]

I call BS. This is not a TS. A remnant swirl moving away from any convection and heading into stronger wind shear? Would something like this mess be upgraded to a TS? Ha! Looking for Bones...

"Center" is the red dot, by the way.

http://wxman57.com/images/swirl.JPG

wxman mad that he cannot go on vacation yet he want bone nhc say noooo

wxman getting very mad

[AnnularCane]

Why do they keep avoiding the convection?

[Aric Dunn]

Why do they keep avoiding the convection?

because they are flying so low.. real question is.. why dont they just gain some altitude then fly through the convection lol.

[StruThiO]

I call BS. This is not a TS. A remnant swirl moving away from any convection and heading into stronger wind shear? Would something like this mess be upgraded to a TS? Ha! Looking for Bones...

"Center" is the red dot, by the way.

http://wxman57.com/images/swirl.JPG

wxman mad that he cannot go on vacation yet he want bone nhc say noooo

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm WSW wobble with the center.. I wonder if a convective burst is about to happen or its going to get elongated and pulled to the convection.. interesting.

[gatorcane]

I call BS. This is not a TS. A remnant swirl moving away from any convection and heading into stronger wind shear? Would something like this mess be upgraded to a TS? Ha! Looking for Bones...

"Center" is the red dot, by the way.

http://wxman57.com/images/swirl.JPG

I would just bring out bones. Shear is really get her now looking at that loop not to mention no model shows her surviving.

[toad strangler]

I call BS. This is not a TS. A remnant swirl moving away from any convection and heading into stronger wind shear? Would something like this mess be upgraded to a TS? Ha! Looking for Bones...

"Center" is the red dot, by the way.

http://wxman57.com/images/swirl.JPG

wxman mad that he cannot go on vacation yet he want bone nhc say noooo

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Josephine appears to be degenerating to a tropical wave as we speak. There are no true west winds, winds near the center are light altogether, and the center is increasingly removed from convection.

[ozonepete]

Josephine appears to be degenerating to a tropical wave as we speak. There are no true west winds, winds near the center are light altogether, and the center is increasingly removed from convection.

https://i.imgur.com/5eGRhxU.png

If the LLC is really open then the convection will dissipate rapidly overnight. You can't have deep convection like that without considerable low level convergence around a center.

This is a big juncture for this TC. It is running into some really punishing shear as it nears western PR and the DR. Hard to see it survive that, but a lot of us who've been on here a long time know that some of these die harder than others.

[Aric Dunn]

Josephine appears to be degenerating to a tropical wave as we speak. There are no true west winds, winds near the center are light altogether, and the center is increasingly removed from convection.

https://i.imgur.com/5eGRhxU.png

If the LLC is really open then the convection will dissipate rapidly overnight. You can't have deep convection like that without considerable low level convergence around a center.

This is a big juncture for this TC. It is running into some really punishing shear as it nears western PR and the DR. Hard to see it survive that, but a lot of us who've been on here a long time know that some of these die harder than others.

A key thing to note is the WSW motion of the center on this pass.. typically a precursor to some sort of convective burst..

[floridasun78]

Aric join wxman57 with bone Aric tell wxman have good weekend and vacation in key west

[1900hurricane]

Josephine appears to be degenerating to a tropical wave as we speak. There are no true west winds, winds near the center are light altogether, and the center is increasingly removed from convection.

https://i.imgur.com/5eGRhxU.png

Also worth noting that winds to the SW near the center quickly become divergent, angling away from the center. If you can stand at the center and skip a rock to winds angling away from you, there are clearly issues present. The mid-level shear (350-300 mb especially) seen in the 00Z San Juan sounding certainly isn't helping.

[ozonepete]

Josephine appears to be degenerating to a tropical wave as we speak. There are no true west winds, winds near the center are light altogether, and the center is increasingly removed from convection.

https://i.imgur.com/5eGRhxU.png

Also worth noting that winds to the SW near the center quickly become divergent, angling away from the center. If you can stand at the center and skip a rock to winds angling away from you, there are clearly issues present. The mid-level shear (350-300 mb especially) seen in the 00Z San Juan sounding certainly isn't helping.

https://i.imgur.com/L8uiFNH.gif

You do realize that for most TCs, and a TS like this, shear from 350-300 mb is upper level shear, not mid-level, right?

[Aric Dunn]

Josephine appears to be degenerating to a tropical wave as we speak. There are no true west winds, winds near the center are light altogether, and the center is increasingly removed from convection.

https://i.imgur.com/5eGRhxU.png

Also worth noting that winds to the SW near the center quickly become divergent, angling away from the center. If you can stand at the center and skip a rock to winds angling away from you, there are clearly issues present. The mid-level shear (350-300 mb especially) seen in the 00Z San Juan sounding certainly isn't helping.

https://i.imgur.com/L8uiFNH.gif

You do realize that for most TCs, and a TS like this, shear from 350-300 mb is upper level shear, not mid-level, right?

it is also straight out the south mostly at 20kt or less which is overall considered neutral.

[1900hurricane]

Josephine appears to be degenerating to a tropical wave as we speak. There are no true west winds, winds near the center are light altogether, and the center is increasingly removed from convection.

https://i.imgur.com/5eGRhxU.png

Also worth noting that winds to the SW near the center quickly become divergent, angling away from the center. If you can stand at the center and skip a rock to winds angling away from you, there are clearly issues present. The mid-level shear (350-300 mb especially) seen in the 00Z San Juan sounding certainly isn't helping.

https://i.imgur.com/L8uiFNH.gif

You do realize that for most TCs, and a TS like this, shear from 350-300 mb is upper level shear, not mid-level, right?

Convection depth is still the same height. The vortex isn't as established at the higher heights when a TC is this weak. That's actually why steering layers are lower for these types of TC. Regardless 300 mb is still roughly 5 kilometers below the tropopause. If I'm breaking up the troposphere into thirds, 350-300 mb would fall in the middle third.

[1900hurricane]

Also worth noting that winds to the SW near the center quickly become divergent, angling away from the center. If you can stand at the center and skip a rock to winds angling away from you, there are clearly issues present. The mid-level shear (350-300 mb especially) seen in the 00Z San Juan sounding certainly isn't helping.

https://i.imgur.com/L8uiFNH.gif

You do realize that for most TCs, and a TS like this, shear from 350-300 mb is upper level shear, not mid-level, right?

it is also straight out the south mostly at 20kt or less which is overall considered neutral.

I could be wrong here, but the hodograph doesn't seem to indicate winds straight out of the south, especially below 325 mb.

[ozonepete]

Also worth noting that winds to the SW near the center quickly become divergent, angling away from the center. If you can stand at the center and skip a rock to winds angling away from you, there are clearly issues present. The mid-level shear (350-300 mb especially) seen in the 00Z San Juan sounding certainly isn't helping.

https://i.imgur.com/L8uiFNH.gif

You do realize that for most TCs, and a TS like this, shear from 350-300 mb is upper level shear, not mid-level, right?

Convection depth is still the same height. The vortex isn't as established at the higher heights when a TC is this weak. That's actually why steering layers are lower for these types of TC. Regardless 300 mb is still roughly 5 kilometers below the tropopause. If I'm breaking up the troposphere into thirds, 350-300 mb would fall in the middle third.

You can't "break the troposphere into thirds" like that. You have to go by meteorology texts and literature, as it's taught in school and used by meteorologists. Roughly 700 to 400 mb is mid-level and above that is upper level. It's science so it's not up to the observer or negotiable. 300 mb shear is upper level shear. There isn't any debate among mets.

[ozonepete]

You do realize that for most TCs, and a TS like this, shear from 350-300 mb is upper level shear, not mid-level, right?

it is also straight out the south mostly at 20kt or less which is overall considered neutral.

I could be wrong here, but the hodograph doesn't seem to indicate winds straight out of the south, especially below 325 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/fDiW4yD.gif

You're using one single location. That is not particularly informative of the conditions over hundreds of miles east and west of there

[Aric Dunn]

it is also straight out the south mostly at 20kt or less which is overall considered neutral.

I could be wrong here, but the hodograph doesn't seem to indicate winds straight out of the south, especially below 325 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/fDiW4yD.gif

You're using one single location. That is not particularly informative of the conditions over hundreds of miles east and west of there

Also the RAOB wind directions are the wind directions at that height on the Hodograph. the dV or bulk shear with height on the hodograph are indicated on the RAOB. So at the range your looking at the mean direction is SSW to S.

but as you can tell there is a lot veering winds.