ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2020080912, , BEST, 0, 105N, 260W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, al772020 to al952020,

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions
could support some development of this system over the next
couple of days while it moves westward at 15 mph across the
tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

Thread that was the topic for this wave at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121114

[OuterBanker]

20% is too generous I think. Next Sunday maybe. Let's enjoy the lull this week. The real season begins next week. It will be a hum dinger I'm afraid.

[abajan]

20% is too generous I think. Next Sunday maybe. Let's enjoy the lull this week. The real season begins next week. It will be a hum dinger I'm afraid.

The thing is, as Mark Sudduth points out in his latest video, the longer they take to develop while in the eastern MDR, the more of a threat they become to the Antilles, Central America, North America etc. Should 95L encounter more favorable conditions farther west, it could become problematic.

[jlauderdal]

20% is too generous I think. Next Sunday maybe. Let's enjoy the lull this week. The real season begins next week. It will be a hum dinger I'm afraid.

The thing is, as Mark Sudduth points out in his latest video, the longer they take to develop while in the eastern MDR, the more of a threat they become to the Antilles, Central America, North America etc. Should 95L encounter more favorable conditions farther west, it could become problematic.

Development w of 60 is high danger

[toad strangler]

20% is too generous I think. Next Sunday maybe. Let's enjoy the lull this week. The real season begins next week. It will be a hum dinger I'm afraid.

The thing is, as Mark Sudduth points out in his latest video, the longer they take to develop while in the eastern MDR, the more of a threat they become to the Antilles, Central America, North America etc. Should 95L encounter more favorable conditions farther west, it could become problematic.

Great video by Sudduth. Any of these waves with no modeled future could be time bombs the further west they go.

[Kazmit]

Is it just me or has the NHC been more lenient with designating invests? In my experience I've usually only seen invests when the disturbance is 40% or higher.

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[SFLcane]

20% is too generous I think. Next Sunday maybe. Let's enjoy the lull this week. The real season begins next week. It will be a hum dinger I'm afraid.

The thing is, as Mark Sudduth points out in his latest video, the longer they take to develop while in the eastern MDR, the more of a threat they become to the Antilles, Central America, North America etc. Should 95L encounter more favorable conditions farther west, it could become problematic.

Development w of 60 is high danger

Not when you have a huge TUTT awaiting for now.

[supercane4867]

Is it just me or has the NHC been more lenient with designating invests? In my experience I've usually only seen invests when the disturbance is 40% or higher.

I’ve seen they designate an invest before even mentioning in TWO.

[GCANE]

IR Satellites looks close to be a TD.
Well developed 700mb vort.
Wave ahead appears to have swept SAL somewhat.

[toad strangler]

Soooooo ... when do we enter that lull?

 http://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1292462702032453634

[TheStormExpert]

Is it just me or has the NHC been more lenient with designating invests? In my experience I've usually only seen invests when the disturbance is 40% or higher.

No they sometimes even designate Invests with only 10% in the two and five day.

[TheStormExpert]

IR Satellites and if you want to extrapolate ASCAT, looks close to be a TD.
Well developed 700mb vort.
Wave ahead appears to have swept SAL somewhat.


https://i.imgur.com/QOxQLRO.gif

https://i.imgur.com/fCLYfeh.gif

https://i.imgur.com/PmlodnU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/3KNUw5E.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/oJER3zT.gif

Those first three images look to be from an area just off the New England coast not Invest 95L.

[SFLcane]

Soooooo ... when do we enter that lull?

http://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1292462702032453634?s=20

Lull is there.. we should remain relatively quite through mid aug other then a short lived tc as this one. Conditions ahead for this wave a quite hostile it most likely will not last long. The problem the next two weeks will be enhanced trade winds and upper-level shear because the MJO is in the Pacific.

[toad strangler]

Soooooo ... when do we enter that lull?

http://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1292462702032453634?s=20

Lull is there.. we should remain relatively quite through mid aug other then a short lived tc as this one. Conditions ahead for this wave a quite hostile it most likely will not last long. The problem the next two weeks will be enhanced trade winds and upper-level shear because the MJO is in the Pacific.

sure, which will allow energy such as 95L to just float on W ... to the far W. That alone can take 10 plus days. I'm just sayin, things aren't as quite as detrimental as they seem. We'll see.

[gatorcane]

Coming into view on the far right:

[jlauderdal]

The thing is, as Mark Sudduth points out in his latest video, the longer they take to develop while in the eastern MDR, the more of a threat they become to the Antilles, Central America, North America etc. Should 95L encounter more favorable conditions farther west, it could become problematic.

Development w of 60 is high danger

Not when you have a huge TUTT awaiting for now.

I should have clarified, w of 60 is generally high danger

[gatorcane]

Dry Saharan air looks to be the main issue this wave will face over the next several days. If it manages to detach from the ITCZ, it’s moisture source could get cut off. But I agree that we are entering that time of year we need to watch what happens with this wave downstream when it gets into the Western Atlantic west of 60W as some have mentioned. For now the models show a high shear zone over the Lesser Antilles but that is out near a week from now so let’s see if that shear verifies. If the EPAC stays active it might.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The MJO might be in the Pacific, but it wont be there long

[chaser1]

Tag-along-friend lol (see the main COC, but then look closely at her little friend to the SW )
https://i.imgur.com/ldalBgp.gifv